2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

Table 59. Assumed need for tourist accommodation (rooms in resorts, motels, hotels, etc.),
Noosa Shire, 2016-2036

Year                                  DEMAND                        SUPPLY             NEED

                  Assumed              Assumed        Assumed       Assumed          Assumed
                   Annual            Total Demand     Additional   New Supply         Need
                   Tourist            (at current      Demand        (New
                 Growth Rate          occupancy)                    Resorts)

2016                 2.5%                2,051           -50            0               -50

2021                 2.5%                2,321          -320           428              108

2026                 2.5%                2,625          -624           428             -196

2031                 2.5%                2,970          -969           428             -541

2036                 2.5%                3,361          -1,360         428             -932

Notes: Excludes all tourism accommodation establishments with fewer than 15 rooms. This table shows the
total need over assumed provision at 2015. Figures are accumulative. Negative figures show additional
demand or a shortfall (shown in red). Positive figures show additional supply or an ‘oversupply’ (shown in
black).

It has also been assumed that there is some excess capacity in existing tourist accommodation
establishments given the occupancy rates of tourist accommodation in Noosa Shire. Occupancy
rates were reviewed in Section 4.1.8. If occupancy rates were to increase slowly from 60% on
average per year in 2016, to a maximum of 80% per year in 2036, some of this need would be
met. The result of this scenario is shown in Table 60 below. This maximum occupancy assumption
has been used in future sections of this modelling chapter.

Table 60. Assumed need for tourist accommodation (rooms in resorts, motels, hotels, etc.)
(with increased occupancy to 80%), Noosa Shire, 2016-2036

Year                                 DEMAND                         SUPPLY             NEED

                 Assumed               Assumed        Assumed       Assumed          Assumed
                  Annual             Total Demand     Additional   New Supply         Need
                  Tourist            (at increasing    Demand        (New
                Growth Rate          occupancy to                   Resorts)
                                          80%)

2016                2.5%              2,051 (61%)        -50            0               -50

2021                2.5%              2,153 (66%)       -152           428              276

2026                2.5%              2,272 (71%)       -271           428              157

2031                2.5%              2,408 (75%)       -407           428              21

2036                2.5%              2,563 (80%)       -562           428             -134

Notes: Excludes all tourism accommodation establishments with fewer than 15 rooms. This table shows the
total need over assumed provision at 2015. Figures are cumulative. Negative figures show additional demand
or a shortfall (shown in red). Positive figures show additional supply or an ‘oversupply’ (shown in black).

Residents living in resort style accommodation not previously considered

From consultations with resort managers, there were assumed to be some 250 dwellings within
resort style accommodation that were currently occupied by residents in 2016. Three scenarios




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