2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

have been developed to consider the movement of residents out of this accommodation if it
were to be used increasingly for tourist uses. These scenarios are based on the trends understood
to be occurring through consultation with tourism providers, increasing visitor occupancy rates
and likely future trends in occupancy rates as a result of increased visitor demand. The low
change scenario therefore assumes that 50% of permanent resident households will move out of
resort style accommodation by 2036, 70% for the medium change scenario and 90% for the high
change scenario (Table 61). Many of these households are likely to be renting.

Table 61. Assumptions about movement out of resorts

Year               Low          Medium        High
                  Change        Change       Change

2016-2021          12.5%             17.5%   22.5%

2021-2026          25.0%             35.0%   45.0%

2026-2031          37.5%             52.5%   67.5%

2031-2036          50.0%             70.0%   90.0%



According to these assumptions, this would result in additional capacity in existing resorts of 125
rooms for the low change scenario, 175 rooms for the medium change scenario and 225 rooms
for the high change scenario (Table 62). It is considered that the medium change scenario may
be the most appropriate. It is notable that this future is however dependent on the ability to
increase supply in alternative small, affordable resident accommodation.

Table 62. Additional capacity in existing resorts, additional need in residential market,
Noosa Shire, 2011-2036

Year               Additional Capacity in Tourist
                   Accommodation / Additional
                    Need in Residential Market

                   Low          Medium        High
                  Change        Change       Change

2016                  0               0        0

2021                 31               44       56

2026                 63               88      113

2031                 94              131      169

2036                125              175      225



Visitor dwellings (residential dwellings generally used by visitors)

It was identified in Section 4.1.8 that there were assumed to be some 4,777 attached visitor
dwellings (dwellings normally occupied by visitors) in 2014 according to Council’s DMaTT model.
The DMaTT model also identified 4 detached visitor dwellings, however this was considered to
undercount the number of detached visitor dwellings substantially. Therefore data from the
Census has been used to estimate the number of detached visitor dwellings. Census data
suggests that there were some 2,017 detached visitor dwellings in 2011 (700 detached dwellings
occupied by visitors on Census night, and 1,317 detached dwellings unoccupied on Census night



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