2016-02-02 I&S Committee - Item 4 - Attachment 1 - Noosa Traffic Study

4 FUTURE TRAFFIC GROWTH
Traffic growth to the end of the design horizon of this study in 2036 will be governed by
population growth and further commercial development.

The state has provided population projections to the year 2036. The population projections
have been grouped into “Statistical Areas” (SA’s).

The population projections within the Noosa Shire area according to the “Statistical Areas”
(SA’s), with 2011 being actual census data and later years being forecasts, are as follows:

               Year                   2011      2016        2021     2026      2031      2036

               Noosa Hinterland      17769     19004        20204   21649     22496     23156
               Noosa Heads            4221      4348         4721    5101      5491      5871
               Noosaville             8064      9003         9257    9518      9771     10077
               Peregian Beach         3929      4141         4286    4412      4457      4485
               Sunshine Beach         6697      6767         6914    7098      7295      7475
               Tewantin              10358     10526        10767   11102     11416     11696

               Total                 51038     53818        56150   58881     60925     62759


Important conclusions to be drawn from inspection of this data is as follows:

(i)         Population growth is spread relatively evenly across all the broader areas of Noosa
            Shire.

(ii)        Population growth is predicted to occur at a relatively consistent rate as time
            progresses.

(iii)       Average population growth from 2016 to 2036 is 0.77%pa, while from 2011 to 2036 it
            is 0.83%.

Given that it is now 2016, and that traffic counts for this study were undertaken in 2015, the
appropriate rate of growth for this study is likely to be closer to the rate of population growth
from 2016 to 2036, rather than that from 2011 to 2036. On that basis, this study has adopted a
growth rate of 0.8%pa from 2015 to 2036 across the Noosa Shire network, which equates to a
factor of 1.18 to increase 2015 traffic volumes to 2036 traffic volumes.

It is noted that car ownership rates have stabilised, and projections are for the average age of
Noosa’s population to increase over the horizon of this study. Thus, there is an argument that
the rate of growth in traffic may actually be slightly less than the rate of population growth in
Noosa.

Consideration has also been given to the Peregian Springs development area located beyond,
but on the on the fringe of, the Noosa Shire boundary. Population projections for Peregian
Springs are increasing from 4069 people in 2011, to 5911 people in 2016, and 10264 people by
2026, and then very low further growth to 2036.

Peregian Springs is located slightly closer to the Tewantin / Noosaville commercial facilities
than to the Nambour and Maroochydore commercial centres (Coolum is located closer to
Nambour and Maroochydore than to Tewantin / Noosaville). Peregian Springs has its own

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