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MCU10/2083 Development Application part 2 - Attachment 4 - Economic Impact and Need Assessment

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  THE HIVE AT NOOSAVILLE
   CONVENIENCE CENTRE

ECONOMIC IMPACT AND NEED ASSESSMENT



                   Client:

           Marquette Properties




               Prepared by:




              ABN 59 111 542 673


              Suite 31, Level 4
            50-56 Sanders Street
      UPPER MT GRAVATT, QLD, 4122

            Ph: (07) 3422 2011
            Fax: (07) 3422 0899

               October 2010
               10034 Rev 1
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CONTENTS

SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ III

1       INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 1

1.1         Purpose and methodololgy ..........................................................................................................1


2       RETAIL NETWORK.................................................................................... 4

2.1         The Noosa Plan.............................................................................................................................4

2.2      Existing centres.............................................................................................................................4
   2.2.1   Discount department store based centres...................................................................................4
   2.2.2   Major supermarket based centres ..............................................................................................6
   2.2.3   Neighbourhood centres..............................................................................................................8
   2.2.4   Tourist retail areas .....................................................................................................................8

2.3         Proposed developments................................................................................................................9

2.4         Summary .....................................................................................................................................10


3       MARKET FUNDAMENTALS .................................................................... 12

3.1         Trade area defined .....................................................................................................................12

3.2      Resident market..........................................................................................................................12
   3.2.1   Forecast population growth and household formation trends ..................................................14

3.3      Socio-economic characteristics..................................................................................................16
   3.3.1   Retail spending implications....................................................................................................19

3.4      Resident retail expenditure potential........................................................................................19
   3.4.1   Average household retail expenditure .....................................................................................19
   3.4.2   Total household retail expenditure ..........................................................................................20

3.5      Visitor market.............................................................................................................................22
   3.5.1    Visitor accommodation............................................................................................................22
   3.5.2    Visitor expenditure ..................................................................................................................24

3.6         Total expenditure potential .......................................................................................................25


4       CENTRE PERFORMANCE AND IMPACT ............................................... 27

4.1      Centre performance prospects ..................................................................................................27
   4.1.1   Tenancy mix ............................................................................................................................27

4.2         Centre market shares and turnover forecasts .........................................................................28

4.3         Impact analysis ...........................................................................................................................30

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    4.3.1        Economic impact defined ........................................................................................................30
    4.3.2        Amount and distribution of impacts ........................................................................................31
    4.3.3        Amelioration of impacts ..........................................................................................................33


5       NEED AND IMPACTS............................................................................... 34

5.1          Need.............................................................................................................................................34

5.2          Impacts ........................................................................................................................................35

5.3          Other community benefits .........................................................................................................36

5.4          Conclusion...................................................................................................................................36


APPENDIX A.................................................................................................... 38

Visitor market ...........................................................................................................................................38


APPENDIX B ................................................................................................... 41

Expressions of interest..............................................................................................................................41




               Disclaimer

               The sole purpose of this report is to provide Marquette Properties (the Client) with information
               in accordance with Foresight Partners Pty Ltd’s scope of services set out in its proposal to the
               Client.

               Foresight Partners has relied upon information relevant to this report provided by government
               agencies, the Client and others. Except as otherwise stated in the report, Foresight Partners has
               not attempted to verify the accuracy or completeness of such information.

               The assumptions underlying the findings, observations, forecasts and conclusions presented in
               this report are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Therefore, actual results
               may differ significantly from forecast results. Foresight Partners do not make or imply any
               warranty or guarantee with respect to the data reported or to the findings, observations,
               forecasts and conclusions expressed in this report. Foresight Partners cannot confirm or
               guarantee achievement of any forecast growth or performance, as future events, by nature, are
               not amenable to independent confirmation or substantiation.




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           Summary
           Marquette Properties is proposing to develop a 915m² convenience retail
           centre, ‘The Hive at Noosaville, on the southwest corner of Gibson Road and
           Skipper Place in Noosaville, Sunshine Coast. The proposal will be anchored by
           a convenience store and be complemented by a mix of convenience oriented
           tenants. In light of its role and function, the proposal will operate for extended
           trading hours.

           Retail network

           The site is diagonally opposite the western end of the Noosaville Business
           Centre, which extends east for around 500 metres. The Noosaville Business
           Centre consists of three key components – Noosa Village, Noosa Homemaker
           Centre and showrooms. The traditional supermarket at Noosa Village provides
           for major chore food shopping needs.
           To the north of the site is the Noosaville Visitor Mixed Use Zone along and
           near Gympie Terrace, which contains a diverse mix of restaurants and cafes
           with relatively high price points. It largely caters to the visitor market.
           Overall, there is a clear deficiency in convenience retail facilities in Noosaville
           with a need for local facilities that have extended hours of operation to serve
           the local resident and visitor population, and provide a greater choice of food
           and beverage facilities.

           Market fundamentals

           The forecast primary trade area encompasses residents within an approximate
           one kilometre radius from the subject site. The Noosa River acts as a natural
           barrier to the north and east. To the south, the trade area extends to Shorehaven
           Drive and west to Eumundi Road. The secondary trade area includes the
           residential pocket west of Eumundi Road and south of Shorehaven Drive.
           The population of the forecast trade area at June 2010 is estimated at 4,700
           people in 2,110 dwellings. The trade area population is forecast to increase to
           4,800 people by June 2013 (the assumed first full year of trading for the
           proposed new centre), 4,870 people by 2015 and 4,940 people by June 2017.
           Trade area households currently generate $59.4 million in retail sales potential.
           Between June 2010 and June 2013, the assumed first full year of trading for the
           proposed new centre, population growth will increase this pool of available
           retail spending by $2.6 million. By 2017 (fifth year of trading) a further $4.0
           million will be available.
           There are a total of 40 visitor accommodation establishments collectively
           comprising over 1,000 rooms within the defined trade area that host an
           estimated 442,800 visitor nights annually. The current pool of expenditure
           from domestic, international and day trip visitors within the trade area is $32.6
           million for food and drink and shopping items. This is forecast to increase to
           $33.6 million by 2013 and $35.0 million by 2017.

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           Centre performance

           Forecast market shares achievable by the proposed centre (4.8% of total trade
           area retail expenditure) produce a centre turnover of $4.5 million, of which
           $1.6 million would originate from external sources (e.g. visitors to the area) at
           June 2013. The centre’s projected overall productivity (sales per square metre)
           is $5,647m² at its first full year of trading.

           Impacts

           The Noosaville convenience retail centre is forecast to capture less than 5% of
           all spending from trade area residents and visitors. The forecast maximum
           impact is less than 2% on the Noosaville Business Centre. As such, forecast
           impacts upon competitive centres will not jeopardize their vitality or viability,
           or threaten their functional roles and levels of service they currently provide to
           the community. The increase in available spending should enable affected
           centres to recoup most of their impacts within a year or two.

           Need

           Need for the subject proposal is demonstrated by the following:
                 •    The local area has a substantial number of residents and visitors.
                 •    The local area is undersupplied with convenience retail facilities.
                 •    There are no alternative locations for such facilities available in
                      Noosaville and greater Noosa.
           The proposed centre should also generate beneficial impacts, such as:
                 •    providing trade area residents with greater choice and variety of shops
                      and food services with extended operating hours;
                 •    introducing more affordably priced food and beverage services;
                 •    enhancing competition in pricing and service;
                 •    providing ease of accessibility with ample parking in light of high
                      vehicle mobility of local residents;
                 •    providing facilities within walking distance of many trade area residents
                      and visitors, thereby generating savings in travel time and costs; and
                 •    providing additional local employment, generating the full-time
                      equivalent of approximately 40 to 50 employees.




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1          Introduction
           Marquette Properties is proposing to develop a 915m² convenience retail
           centre, ‘The Hive at Noosaville’, on the southwest corner of Gibson Road and
           Skipper Place in Noosaville, Sunshine Coast. The 3,860m² site is zoned
           ‘Residential’ under the Noosa Plan (Lot 1 RP802167). Previously the subject
           site has been used as a nursery. An existing commercial use would be replaced
           with the proposed convenience retail centre.
           The proposal is intended to serve as a convenient and easily accessible
           shopping destination. The proposed mix of tenants will be convenience
           oriented and thereby complement the existing range of uses in the surrounding
           area. It proposes to contain eight tenancies ranging in size from about 70m² to
           170m², anchored by a convenience store. Approximately 100m² of additional
           area will be provided for alfresco dining. Ingress and egress will be on Gibson
           Road and Skipper Place. Parking for 67 cars will be provided. In light of its
           role and function, the proposal will operate for extended trading hours (Figure
           1.1).

1.1        PURPOSE AND METHODOLOLGY

           Foresight Partners Pty Ltd was commissioned by Marquette Properties to assess
           the market feasibility, community need and economic impact implications of
           the proposed new centre. The three key objectives of this economic impact
           assessment are to:
                 •    determine if the proposed convenience centre has reasonable market
                      prospects;
                 •    evaluate the economic impacts of the proposed centre development
                      upon the existing and likely future retail network serving the
                      surrounding area; and
                 •    assess whether there is a community need and planning need and
                      demand for the proposed convenience centre.
           Investigations were carried out in four main areas—the competitive
           environment, market fundamentals, centre performance and network impacts.
           Market fundamentals included:
                 •    A determination of the centre’s likely trade area based upon the location
                      and function of competitive centres, the road network and other factors.
                 •    A review of population growth and household formation trends within
                      this trade area. Forecasts of future population and households were
                      produced based on population forecasts prepared by the Population
                      Information and Forecasting Unit within the Office of Economic and
                      Statistical Research. Forecasts were prepared for the proposed centre’s
                      first, third and fifth years of trading. The extended centre’s first full
                      financial year of trading is assumed as the year ending June 2013.

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                 •    Socio-economic characteristics of the trade area’s population which
                      were compiled from the 2006 Census and interpreted in terms of retail
                      demand and propensity to spend on various goods and services.
                 •    Estimation of the pool of retail expenditure potential available from
                      trade area households and visitors at June 2010 (the base year for this
                      analysis) and forecasts of how this pool will increase (in constant 2009
                      dollars) over a seven year period to June 2017.
                 An assessment of the competitive environment in the surrounding area
                 included a reconnaissance of retail and other uses in Noosaville, Noosa
                 Junction, Noosa Heads, and Tewantin.
                 The new centre’s likely performance prospects (centre turnover) were
                 estimated through a market share analysis, with turnover forecasts prepared
                 for its first, third and fifth years of operation.
                 Implications of the proposed centre’s impacts upon existing centres are
                 discussed, together with the prospects for the amelioration of these impacts
                 over time. Community and planning need and demand for the centre are
                 then discussed.




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Page 9

2          Retail Network
           This chapter provides an overview of the existing network of centres currently
           serving Noosaville and the surrounding localities of Noosa Heads and
           Tewantin. It also describes Noosa’s Commercial and Retail Development
           Strategy.

2.1        THE NOOSA PLAN

           The Noosa Plan (2006) corresponds to the former Noosa Shire. It outlines the
           scale and functions of the centres and zones within the former local
           government area (hereafter referred to as Noosa Shire):
           Business centres are designed to accommodate significant retail, commercial,
           entertainment, dining and community uses. They incorporate some higher
           order retail and other services; however the facilities and services offered
           through the business centres are not meant to detract from the Shire Business
           Centre (SBC). The Planning Scheme identifies Business centres at Noosa
           Junction, Noosaville, Tewantin and Cooroy.
           Neighbourhood or Visitor Centres are where the day-to-day retail needs of
           Noosa Shire residents and visitors can be met. They are found in the urban,
           developed pockets of the Shire at Peregian Beach, Sunrise Beach, Sunshine
           Beach, Noosa Heads, Noosaville and Tewantin. Rural neighbourhood-visitor
           centres are designated at Cooroibah and Teewah.
           The Village Mix Zone includes a range of business and commercial uses to
           accommodate the immediate needs of residents and visitors in rural villages in
           the Shire.
           The Visitor Mixed Use Zone is primarily comprised of small retail and
           business outlets rather than branded chain stores and includes a wide range of
           entertainment and dining, retail, and commercial services that are of interest to
           visitors. The primary Visitor Mixed Use Zone in the Shire is at Hastings Street
           with the Gympie Terrace area in Noosaville also recognised as part of this
           zone.

2.2        EXISTING CENTRES

           The existing centres most relevant to the proposal are discussed in terms of
           scale, function and location. Figure 2.1 shows the locations of these centres.

2.2.1      Discount department store based centres

           Stage 1 of Noosa Civic, which opened in October 2006, is an 18,670m² retail
           centre anchored by a 6,464m² Big W discount department store and a 3,500m²
           Woolworths supermarket, with approximately 80 specialty shops. It is the
           dominant feature of the SBC, which also includes the 7,060m² Emporium retail
           showroom centre and 5,008m² of commercial office space. The 7,440m²


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Page 11

           Business Park comprising two and three storey buildings has formed the second
           stage of development. Noosa Civic is the largest retail centre in Noosa Shire. It
           provides the region’s highest order retail goods including apparel, homewares
           and bulky goods items. It also includes a small selection of fast food,
           restaurants and cafes including a Chinese takeaway, Sushi bar, sandwich and
           juice bar, Red Rooster, Subway, Sunshine Kebabs, Donut King, Jamaica Blue,
           and The Coffee Club. As all retailers are located within the centre itself, they
           only operate during normal centre trading hours. The Noosa Civic Tavern is
           located on the western end of the centre.

2.2.2       Major supermarket based centres

           Three of Noosa Shire’s four Business centres are anchored by major chain
           supermarkets, although each has attributes that differentiate them and their
           function.

           Noosaville Business Centre

           The Noosaville Business Centre is located primarily on Mary and Thomas
           Streets, Noosaville and has three key components: Noosa Village, Noosa
           Homemaker Centre and showrooms.
           The 4,414m² Noosa Village centre is anchored by a 2,582m² Woolworths
           supermarket. Its reported turnover in the 2009 Shopping Centre Directory was
           $63 million, indicating that the centre is performing exceptionally well. Noosa
           Village is the only supermarket anchored centre within the Noosaville area and
           therefore provides residents with their chore food and top-up shopping needs. It
           operates until 9pm weeknights and 5pm/6pm on weekends. The supermarket is
           complemented by a range of specialty shops that include some take home food,
           apparel, household goods, and personal and professional services. Meals out /
           take away food retailers are limited to a café and Donut King.
           Immediately to the west of Noosa Village separated by Dan Murphy’s and the
           Villa Noosa Hotel, is the Noosa Homemaker Centre, a retail showroom–bulky
           goods centre of 22 tenancies. The Noosa Homemaker Centre has a wide range
           of tenants. There are two fast food retailers within the development; Dominos
           Pizza (open daily from 10.30am to midnight and until 1am Friday and Saturday
           nights) and a 24 hour McDonalds. However, accessibility to the McDonalds is
           constrained with only one access point off Thomas Street through the
           Homemaker Centre carpark.
           Another retail showroom centre is located east of Noosa Village. This centre is
           anchored by a large Harvey Norman store and has 22 other showroom
           tenancies. Gibson’s Homewares is another of the tenants which operates a deli
           and is open weekdays from 8am to 4pm and Saturdays from 8.30am till
           3.30pm.
           In addition to the three retail centres, there are a number of other businesses
           located within the Noosaville Business Centre, predominantly located along
           Mary Street. A BP service station is situated on the corner of Weyba Road and
           Mary Street on the eastern fringe of Noosaville. While the petrol station

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           operates 24 hours, its convenience store is open until 9pm and has a limited
           product mix. There are also a number of professional services including real
           estate agents, a medical centre, and a handful of local businesses (e.g.
           accountants and solicitors), as well as the China Jade Restaurant in the local
           area.
           The Noosaville Business Centre caters mainly to resident, rather than visitor,
           major chore food and comparison shopping needs. The Noosaville Business
           Centre appears to be functioning well, with very few vacant shops observed.

           Noosa Junction Business Centre

           This retail and commercial centre is located at the intersection of Sunshine
           Beach Road and Noosa Drive and is dominated by the Noosa Fair and Noosa
           Junction shopping centres.
           Noosa Fair is a 7,913m² shopping centre anchored by a 3,766m² Coles
           supermarket and about 25 specialty shops. It is the dominant centre within the
           business centre area and appears to be trading exceptionally well, mainly due to
           the trading strength of the Coles supermarket. In 2009, the centre’s turnover
           was reported at over $61 million (source: Property Council of Australia’s
           Queensland Shopping Centre Directory, 2009).
           Noosa Junction Plaza, a centre of 4,756m², is anchored by a 2,155m² Supa IGA
           supermarket. Observations of this centre since it was built (1987) suggest that
           it has struggled and has rarely been fully let. Its current anchor tenant, Supa
           IGA, was previously an Action Supermarket, which had replaced the original
           anchor, Franklins Fresh supermarket.
           A number of smaller retail developments and strip retailing combine to make
           Noosa Junction a strong retail destination, offering over 270 shops and
           professional services in over 40,000m² of floor space. It includes the Shire’s
           only multi-screen cinema complex as well as a range of cafes, restaurants and
           gift shops. In addition to catering to the major supermarket, day-to-day
           convenience needs and some comparison shopping, the Noosa Junction
           Business Centre also caters to Noosa’s visitor market.
           However, the centre’s location in Noosa Heads, some 3.5 kilometres east of the
           subject site, makes it relatively inconvenient as a convenience shopping
           destination for Noosaville residents and visitors.

           Tewantin Business Centre

           The Tewantin Business Centre is focused on the strip retail and commercial
           developments on Poinciana Avenue. It functions as a small town centre
           offering mainly convenience shopping, but also professional services,
           commercial offices and a pub. It adjoins Noosa Shire’s offices, art gallery and
           jetty. In light of its position relative to Noosaville, it would mainly serve
           residents and visitors in Tewantin.
           The Council’s investment in streetscape improvements have helped transform
           and revitalise the Tewantin Business Centre area and it now attracts locals and
           visitors with its range of cafes and restaurants.

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           The newest development is Poinciana Place, a 2,874m2 centre that was
           refurbished in mid-2006 and is now anchored by a 2,178m² Woolworths. It
           provides the next nearest full-line supermarket to the west of Noosaville. The
           open air strip mall provides a small range of specialty shops that include some
           professional services, a gym, butcher, clothing store, Subway and Gloria Jeans
           café. Three small and older retail developments (Tewantin Plaza, The Cooloola
           Centre and The Atrium) and other street front shops and services line Poinciana
           Avenue.
           There is a small selection of fast food shops located on Memorial Drive with
           tenants comprising a House of Chooks, Pizza Capers, Kebabylon Fresh, Eagle
           Boys and Kiku Takeaway. Most of these outlets open at lunch time (generally
           from 12pm-2pm) and then for dinner (from 4.30pm-10pm).

2.2.3       Neighbourhood centres

           There are a several retail and commercial centres that cater for the immediate
           and everyday needs of the local community.            Most are anchored by
           independent supermarkets and grocery stores. The following is a summary of
           local-scale retail facilities in the area.
                 •    Aldi opened a store along Weyba Road in late 2007. Adjacent to Aldi is
                      a small retail development comprising a bakery and café, Thai
                      restaurant, bookstore, Organika café and produce, and Legends Bar and
                      Grill. On the opposite side of Aldi, there is also a small convenience
                      store of about 100m² selling basic groceries and newspaper items.
                 •    The Noosa Wharf Shopping Centre at Quamby Place is a small centre
                      located amongst tourist accommodation at Noosa Sound. This centre
                      has a 180m² 7-2-7 supermarket and is mainly made up of high end
                      restaurants. The centre did not appear to be trading well with five
                      vacancies observed.
                 •    Bushlands Shopping Centre is a small convenience centre anchored by
                      a Spar Express of around a 150m². Other tenants include a liquor store,
                      hairdresser, second hand clothing store and bakery. The Spar Express is
                      open from 6.30am to 8pm seven days per week. The catchment of the
                      store is confined to the Noosa Bushlands estate.
                 •    Noosa Outlook Shopping Centre is located along St Andrews Drive. It
                      is anchored by an IGA supermarket (around 600m²) and is
                      complemented by 13 specialties including a butcher, bakery, solicitor,
                      beauty salon, hairdresser and medical centre. The centre would mainly
                      cater to residents in the residential pocket south of Cooroy-Noosa Road.

2.2.4      Tourist retail areas

           The predominant tourist retailing in the Northern Sunshine Coast region is the
           Visitor Mixed Use Zone of Hastings Street, Noosa Heads. The Hastings Street
           area enjoys an iconic status as one of Australia’s most famous and popular
           beach destinations. There are over 150 retail and commercial premises within

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           the Hastings Street area and it is dominated by cafes and restaurants, take away
           shops, boutique resort and other fashion and gift shops. The Hastings Street
           precinct had a total of 13 vacancies.
           The second major tourist area in Noosa Shire is the Noosaville Visitor Mixed
           Use Zone. It is the most relevant of the tourist retail areas given its location
           relative to the subject proposal. Located on Gympie Terrace fronting the Noosa
           River, this zone is primarily composed of cafes and restaurants with some
           higher order apparel retailing. There were two vacancies evident along Gympie
           Terrace.
           The vast majority of restaurants and cafes in this precinct are of high-end
           quality. There is however a small clustering of eateries on Thomas Street
           providing some fast food. These include a Red Rooster, Zachary’s Pizza Bar,
           Magic of India, Raymondo’s Gourment Pizza and Nosh It. Apart from the Red
           Rooster (operates daily from 9.30am-9.30pm and 10.30pm Friday and Saturday
           nights), operating hours are fairly restricted with the eateries generally opening
           only for dinner.
           In terms of convenience shopping, there is one convenience store of about
           100m² along Gympie Terrace. The store has a narrow product line providing
           only basic convenience items, such as bread, milk, cold drinks, chips, and some
           toiletries.
           The most recent development within the Noosaville Visitor Mixed Use Zone
           has involved a boutique-style development on the corner of Thomas Street.
           With the exception of the ice-creamery (and one vacant shop), all other six
           tenants are high-end retailers and include Zambeze and Skaagen Denmark. This
           further highlights the role of Gympie Terrace as a tourist and leisure
           destination.
           The Noosa Marina also provides a diverse range of restaurants and cafés. In
           total, there are around 16 tenancies, four of which were vacant upon inspection.
           Additional tenants include a hairdresser, footwear, spa, and gallery and
           homewares store. The majority of restaurants offer fine dining.

2.3        PROPOSED DEVELOPMENTS

           Enquiries with Sunshine Coast Regional Council in August 2010 have
           identified a number of planned and proposed retail developments within the
           Noosaville, Noosa Junction, Noosa Heads and Tewantin area:
                 •    The largest application involves the expansion of Noosa Civic. Stage 3
                      of the proposal totals 35,000m² of lettable retail and commercial use
                      area and would introduce a two level department store, a second major
                      supermarket, a second discount department store, a number of mini-
                      majors, additional retail specialty shops (8,000m²) and two levels of
                      professional services and commercial office space (5,000m²). The
                      application is currently subject to Court Appeal.
                 •    As part of the Noosaville Homemaker Centre, there is an approval to
                      utilise part of the existing carparking area located along the northern

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                      portion of the site for a night and weekend market. The area is to be
                      cordoned off for a maximum of 76 stalls to operate in the area. The
                      market is to operate every Friday and Saturday night from 4pm till 9pm
                      and Sunday from 7am till 1pm.
                 •    There is an approval to establish a retail/commercial development at 84
                      Poinciana Avenue in Tewantin. The development is to comprise seven
                      tenancies totaling 809m². Tenancy one is to be utilised by a restaurant
                      (136m²) and tenancies two to five utilised for retail uses with an
                      average area of 90m² each. Tenancies six and seven are to be located on
                      the upper levels and used for office and/or medical purposes (222m²).
                 •    An application to establish a Trade Supplies Store within an existing
                      building, currently unoccupied and previously used for an indoor sports
                      centre has been approved. The building on 30 Rene Street in Noosaville
                      has a floor area of 930m².
                 •    There is a proposal for the conversion of an existing upper floor office
                      at 28 Hastings Street, Noosa Heads to a shop (123m²).
                 •    An approval to convert a medical centre into a Noodle Bar at 28 David
                      Low Way in Noosa Heads has been approved.
                 •    An application for the fit-out of a dental surgery at Quamby Place in
                      Noosa Heads has been approved.
           In light of the locations of the proposals, all are likely to serve different
           catchments, with the exception of Noosa Civic which would serve a broad and
           overlapping catchment to the subject proposal.
           As the subject development represents the only convenience-type centre
           proposed within the Noosaville, Noosa Junction, Noosa Heads and Tewantin
           area, it would therefore serve a largely distinct role and function to all of the
           existing and proposed retail facilities. Moreover, it would address the shortage
           in convenience retail facilities. Like all of the proposed developments, it would
           represent only a minor increase in the future retail provision of Noosa Shire.

2.4        SUMMARY

           A reconnaissance of the retail network in the Noosaville area indicates the
           following:
                 •    There is a lack of convenience retail facilities within the area,
                      particularly those that operate extended trading hours and are
                      convenient to Noosaville residents and visitors.
                 •    There are few moderately priced food services in the local area.
                 •    The only supermarket in Noosaville is estimated to be trading well
                      above average and the centre in which it is located (Noosa Village) has
                      no vacancies.
                 •    Existing shops and food outlets on Gympie Terrace mainly cater to
                      higher price points and are not within a walkable distance for many

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                      Noosaville residents and visitors. Furthermore, parking is a major
                      constraint around Gympie Terrace, limited to on-street parking only.
                 •    The broader Noosa area in general is underserved by convenience-type
                      centres but more importantly there are no convenience-type centres in
                      the local area that have provision for a convenience store, food and
                      beverage services within walking distance of local residents and visitors
                      in Noosaville, and that also provide adequate parking.
           These characteristics indicate a very limited provision of convenience retail and
           food service facilities in Noosaville compared to the range of convenience
           facilities that are typically available to residents in urban areas, and to visitors
           in significant tourism areas.




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3          Market Fundamentals
           This section sets out the proposed Noosaville convenience retail centre’s trade
           area characteristics, population and household growth prospects and retail
           expenditure available from the resident and visitor markets.

3.1        TRADE AREA DEFINED

           The proposed Noosaville convenience retail centre’s trade area was defined and
           segmented into a primary and secondary trade area based upon:
                 •    the expected size, composition and function of the proposed centre;
                 •    the location and function of existing competitive centres;
                 •    the road network and barriers to movement including national parks and
                      canals; and
                 •    Census collector district boundaries.
           The primary trade area encompasses residents within an approximate one
           kilometre radius from the subject site. The Noosa River acts as a natural barrier
           to the north and east. To the south, the trade area extends to Shorehaven Drive
           and west to Eumundi Road.
           The secondary trade area comprises a more contained area located to the west
           of the primary trade area. It includes the residential pocket west of Eumundi
           Road and south of Shorehaven Drive.
           Figure 3.1 shows the defined trade area expected for the proposed Noosaville
           retail centre.

3.2        RESIDENT MARKET

           Table 3.1 sets out the resident population and households for the main trade
           area at 2001, 2006 and 2010, as well as forecast population and households for
           2013 to 2017. Population and household data were compiled from the
           Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2001 and 2006 Census and dwelling
           approval data from the ABS for July 2001 to June 2009.
                 •    In 2006, the trade area had an estimated 4,558 persons residing in 2,026
                      dwellings.
                 •    Currently, the trade area is estimated to have a resident population of
                      4,700 people in 2,110 dwellings.
                 •    This increase over the last four years represents an average annual
                      growth rate of 0.8%.




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                  kilometres
  Figure 3.1: Noosaville Convenience
                                                                                Noosa
                                                                                Noosa Civic
                                                                                      Civic
  Retail Centre Forecast Trade Area
        Subject Site
        Discount department store
        anchored centre

        Supermarket anchored centre

        Neighbourhood Centre

        Bulky Goods / Retail Showroom
                                                                                                                 ´
        Retail Strip

        Primary Trade Area
                       ´
        Secondary Trade Area

Page 19

3.2.1      Forecast population growth and household formation trends

           The population projections are based on information gathered by Foresight
           Partners on the available supply of land for residential development, as well as
           medium series population forecasts by PIFU.
           The trade area’s population is forecast to increase from an estimated 4,700
           people at June 2010 to:
                 •    4,800 people by June 2013 (assumed first full year of trading);
                 •    4,870 people by June 2015; and
                 •    4,940 people by June 2017.
           Forecast growth within the trade area is likely to be modest, reflecting the
           area’s maturity. Over the seven year forecast period, the trade area will gain
           about 240 new residents and around 150 additional households.
           The majority of growth is projected to occur within the secondary trade area –
           containing a large parcel on Eenie Creek Road destined for residential
           development. In the primary trade area, projected growth will occur as part of
           the proposed extension of Headlands Estate and infill development occurring
           mainly around the canal.




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   Table 3.1:     Estimated population and households, proposed Noosaville convenience retail centre trade area, June 2001 to June 2017
Trade Areas                            2001    Incr. p.a.        2006    Incr. p.a.        2010     Incr. p.a.        2013      Inc. p.a.        2015      Inc. p.a.        2017
Primary
Population                             3,358          31         3,515          19        3,590            13        3,630            10        3,650            10        3,670
Occupied dwellings                     1,542          18         1,630          13        1,680            10        1,710            10        1,730             8        1,745
Persons per dwelling                    2.18                      2.16                     2.14                       2.12                       2.11                       2.10
Secondary
Population                              991           10         1,043          17        1,110            20        1,170            25        1,220            25        1,270
Occupied dwellings                      368            6          396            9          430            10          460            15          490            13          515
Persons per dwelling                    2.69                      2.63                     2.58                       2.54                       2.49                       2.47
Total
Population                             4,349          42         4,558          36        4,700            33        4,800            35        4,870            35        4,940
Occupied dwellings                     1,910          23         2,026          21        2,110            20        2,170            25        2,220            20        2,260
Persons per dwelling                    2.28                      2.25                     2.23                       2.21                       2.19                       2.19
Average annual growth                             2001-                     2006-                      2010-                      2013-                      2015-
rates                                              2006                      2010                       2013                       2015                       2017
Population (%)                                     0.9%                      0.8%                       0.7%                       0.7%                       0.7%
Households (%)                                     1.2%                      1.0%                       0.9%                       1.1%                       0.9%

   Source: ABS 2001 and 2006 Census; dwelling approval data; ABS Regional Population Growth 2010; PIFU population forecasts – 2008 medium series; and Foresight Patners estimates.




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3.3        SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

           Trade area socio-economic characteristics provide an indication of the capacity
           of a population to support retail and other activities. Table 3.2 summarises key
           socio-economic data for the defined trade area as at the 2006 Census.
           The Sunshine Coast Statistical Division (SCSD—encompasses the local
           government areas of Noosa Shire, Maroochy Shire and Caloundra City) and
           Queensland are included as benchmarks for comparison.
           Notable variations of key socio-economic characteristics between the trade area
           and the regional and state benchmarks are summarised below.

           Age Distribution

                 •    The total trade area has an older age profile than the SCSD and
                      Queensland benchmarks, as evidenced by the higher proportion of
                      persons aged over 45 years (empty nesters) and correspondingly lower
                      proportion aged less than 45 years. These differences are clearer when
                      presented as age-sex structure pyramids (Figure 3.2).
                 •    In particular, the primary trade area has a relatively older age profile
                      characterised by a higher proportion of persons aged 65+ (18.2%)
                      compared to the SCSD and Queensland (16.5% and 12.4%
                      respectively).
                 •    Conversely, the secondary trade area has a more youthful population as
                      evidenced by a higher proportion of dependent children (19.8%) and
                      lower proportion of persons aged 65+ (14.0%).

           Figure 3.2: Total Trade Area and Queensland Age-Sex Structure, 2006

              100+
             95-99         MALES                                                    FEMALES
             90-94
             85-89
             80-84
             75-79
             70-74
             65-69
             60-64
             55-59
             50-54
             45-49
             40-44
             35-39
             30-34
             25-29
             20-24
             15-19
             10-14
               5-9
               0-4
                     6.0            4.0    2.0         0.0        2.0         4.0         6.0
                                          Per cent of total population
                                             Total Trade Area    Queensland


           Source: ABS 2006 Census.



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           Family Structure

                 •    Due to the age structure, the total trade area is dominated by couples
                      without children households (many of whom are empty nesters) at
                      40.1%. These contribute to a lower average household size of 2.31,
                      below the SCSD and Queensland (2.49 and 2.60 respectively).
                 •    The proportion of couple only households is especially high in the
                      secondary trade area at 43.6% of all households. While the primary
                      trade area is also dominated by couples without children households
                      (39.4%), around one-quarter of its households are lone persons (25.3%).

           Employment

                 •    Employment characteristics differ notably within the total trade area
                      and Queensland. The older age structure of the area is reflected in the
                      lower workforce participation rates than Queensland (57.4% compared
                      to 66.3%) and fewer employed persons per household (1.1 compared to
                      1.3).
                 •    Unemployment for the trade area (4.5%) as at the 2006 Census was
                      below the SCSD (4.7%) and above Queensland (5.7%). Unemployment
                      ranged from a low of 2.4% in the secondary trade area to 5.0% in the
                      primary trade area.
                 •    More recent unemployment data as at the March quarter 2010 indicate
                      that the Noosa-Noosaville Statistical Local Area (comprising the total
                      trade area) had an unemployment rate of 7.6% compared to 5.6% in
                      Queensland.

           Average Household Income

                 •    Average household income in the total trade area is estimated at
                      $68,907 per annum (in 2009 dollar values), which is around 13% above
                      the SCSD average ($60,995) and on par with the Queensland average
                      ($69,243).
                 •    Average household income is higher in the secondary trade area
                      ($74,626 compared to $67,687 in the primary trade area) reflecting the
                      higher workforce participation rate and lower unemployment rate.

           Housing

                 •    The total trade area has a lower proportion of detached/semi-detached
                      dwellings (81.8%) than the SCSD (86.5%) and Queensland (87.2%).
                 •    The primary trade area has a notably higher share of attached dwellings
                      (20.0%) compared to all other areas highlighting the concentration of
                      retirees and correspondingly lower average household sizes.
                 •    Dwelling ownership levels are higher in the secondary trade area
                      (67.9%) coinciding with higher average household incomes in the
                      secondary trade area.

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           Table 3.2: Summary of selected socio-economic characteristics, 2006,
                      Noosaville convenience retail centre trade area
                                        Primary          Secondary          Total   Sunshine     QLD
                                                                                    Coast SD
   Age (%)
   0-14                                      14.5                  19.8      15.5       19.5      20.7
   15-24                                     10.6                  11.0      10.7       11.6      13.8
   25-44                                     20.2                  21.4      20.5       24.8      28.2
   45-64                                     36.5                  33.8      36.0       27.6      25.0
   65+                                       18.2                  14.0      17.4       16.5      12.4
   Household Type (%)
   Couples with Children                     22.5                  29.9      23.8       28.1      31.5
   Couples without Children                  39.4                  43.6      40.1       32.7      28.5
   Single Parent Household                    8.0                  11.4       8.6       11.6      11.6
   Lone Person Household                     25.3                  13.4      23.3       22.9      22.8
   Group/Other Household                      4.8                   1.7       4.3        4.7       5.7
   Employment (%*)
   In labour force                           57.1                  58.6      57.4       60.8      66.3
   Unemployed                                 5.0                   2.4       4.5        5.8       4.7
   White collar occupations                  74.8                  72.0      74.3       65.3      64.9
   Employed per household                     1.1                   1.2       1.1        1.2       1.3
   (No.)
   Household Income (%)
   $0-$26,000                                22.8                  16.1      21.6       23.7      20.6
   $26,001-$52,000                           28.9                  30.4      29.2       31.2      27.2
   $52,000-$104,000                          31.5                  31.5      31.5       33.7      35.6
   $104,000 +                                16.8                  22.0      17.7       11.5      16.6
   Average 2006 income                   $67,687             $74,626      $68,907    $60,995   $69,243
   (2009 $ vals)
   Dwellings (%)
   Detached/semi-det                         79.6                  92.4      81.8       86.5      87.2
   Flats/units                               20.0                   7.6      17.8       11.6      11.2
   Caravan/other                              0.5                   0.0       0.4        2.0       1.5
   Owned/purchasing                          59.1                  67.9      60.6       69.4      67.2
   Mobility (%)
   No vehicle                                 6.4                   1.7       5.6        6.3       8.2
   1 vehicle                                 47.3                  38.7      45.8       40.3      37.8
   2 or more vehicles                        46.3                  59.6      48.6       53.4      54.0

           *Population aged 15+
            Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 Census.




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[OCR of page images]
 

 

Foresight
partnersptytta
Table 3.2: Summary of selected socio-economic characteristics, 2006,
Noosaville convenience retail centre trade area
Primary Secondary Total Sunshine QLD
Coast SD

Age (%)
0-14 14.5 19.8 15.5 19.5 20.7
15-24 10.6 11.0 10.7 11.6 13.8
25-44 20.2 21.4 20.5 24.8 28.2
45-64 36.5 33.8 36.0 27.6 25.0
65+ 18.2 14.0 17.4 16.5 12.4
Household Type (“%)
Couples with Children 22.5 29.9 23.8 28.1 31.5
Couples without Children 39.4 43.6 40.1 32.7 28.5
Single Parent Household 8.0 11.4 8.6 11.6 11.6
Lone Person Household 25.3 13.4 23.3 22.9 22.8
Group/Other Household 4.8 1.7 4.3 47 5.7
Employment (%*)
In labour force 57.1 58.6 57.4 60.8 66.3
Unemployed 5.0 2.4 4.5 5.8 47
White collar occupations 74.8 72.0 74.3 65.3 64.9
Employed per household 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3
(No.)
Household Income (%)
$0-$26,000 22.8 16.1 21.6 23.7 20.6
$26,001-$52,000 28.9 30.4 29.2 31.2 27.2
$52,000-$104,000 31.5 31.5 31.5 33.7 35.6
$104,000 + 16.8 22.0 17.7 11.5 16.6
Average 2006 income $67,687 $74,626 $68,907 $60,995 $69,243
(2009 $ vals)
Dwellings (%)
Detached/semi-det 79.6 92.4 81.8 86.5 87.2
Flats/units 20.0 7.6 17.8 11.6 11.2
Caravan/other 0.5 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.5
Owned/purchasing 59.1 67.9 60.6 69.4 67.2
Mobility (%)
No vehicle 6.4 1.7 5.6 6.3 8.2
1 vehicle 47.3 38.7 45.8 40.3 37.8
2 or more vehicles 46.3 59.6 48.6 53.4 54.0

 

 

*Population aged 15+
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 Census.

 

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           Mobility

                 •    Mobility as indicated by number of vehicles per household is highest in
                      the secondary trade area, with about 60% of all households owning two
                      or more vehicles.
                 •    In contrast, it is considerably lower in the primary trade area with 46%
                      of residents owning two or more vehicles, or over 6% of households
                      without access to a vehicle.

3.3.1      Retail spending implications

           Overall the total trade area’s socio-economic characteristics collectively
           suggest that spending patterns will be fairly similar to Queensland. However,
           this may not be uniform across the primary and secondary trade areas.
           Households in the secondary trade area are likely to exhibit higher spending
           across all commodity groups due to the younger age profile and higher
           disposable incomes of trade area households. Of particular note is the high
           share of lone person households in the primary trade area who are expected to
           consider convenience as an important factor in terms of take home food and
           meals out shopping. Mobility is also of key interest with high mobility in the
           secondary trade area coupled with limited shopping alternatives increasing the
           propensity to drive to access local convenience shopping facilities.

3.4        RESIDENT RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL


3.4.1      Average household retail expenditure

           Average household retail expenditure levels for trade area households were
           derived using income data from the 2006 Census, the 2003-04 Household
           Expenditure Survey, and National and State Accounts data on final household
           consumption published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Dollar
           values from these sources were inflated to common 2009 values using the
           Brisbane Consumer Price Index and other data.
           Average household retail expenditures consist of four broad categories:
                 •    Take home food – which includes food expenditure at supermarkets,
                      grocery stores, greengrocers, butchers, bakers, tobacconists, delis and
                      bottle shops;
                 •    Meals out/take away food – including restaurants, take away, cafes and
                      coffee shops;
                 •    Apparel – clothing, footwear and accessories, including hire services;
                      and
                 •    Homewares/services – includes chemists, newsagents, hardware,
                      homewares, durable goods and non-food goods (sold in supermarkets
                      and grocery stores) and personal services (e.g. hairdresser, video hire,
                      dry cleaning).


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           Average household retail expenditures for each component of the trade area
           were compiled by these broad retail categories. It is virtually impossible to
           define mutually exclusive household expenditures by major store type because
           of the broad and overlapping range of goods and services offered by retailers.
           Consequently, estimates of household spending cannot be taken as exclusively
           available for the support of any one particular retail activity.
           Table 3.3 details the average annual household retail expenditure estimated for
           the Noosaville convenience retail centre trade area. Average household
           expenditure levels for the Sunshine Coast Statistical Division and Queensland
           are shown for comparison.

           Table 3.3:      Average household retail expenditure by retail commodity group,
                           Noosaville convenience retail centre trade area (2009 $ values)
                                      Take home        Meals out                   Homewares/
           Area                             food       take away       Apparel        services              Total
                                              ($)             ($)          ($)             ($)                ($)
           Primary                        10,890            3,600          2,610          10,710           27,810
           Secondary                      11,570            3,830          2,770          11,380           29,550
           Total                          11,010            3,640          2,640          10,830           28,120


           Sunshine Coast SD              10,240            3,390          2,450          10,070           26,150
           Queensland                     11,040            3,650          2,640          10,860           28,190

            Source: ABS 2003-04 Household Expenditure Survey; National and State Accounts; Foresight Partners
            calculations.


3.4.2      Total household retail expenditure

           Multiplying the average household expenditure by the number of households
           yields an estimate of the total retail expenditure potential for the trade area in
           June 2010.
           Table 3.4 sets out the trade area’s retail expenditure potential by commodity
           group over the forecast years between 2010 and 2017. Figure 3.3 shows this
           increase by food and non-food groups over this period.

           Table 3.4: Retail expenditure potential generated by Noosaville convenience
                      retail centre trade area households, 2010–2017 (2009 $ values)
           Trade area and year             Take home        Meals out                     Homewares/
           ending June                           food       take away         Apparel        services           Total
                                                 ($m)            ($m)           ($m)            ($m)            ($m)
           2010
           Primary                              18.30               6.05           4.38            17.99      46.72
           Secondary                                4.98            1.65           1.19             4.89      12.71
           Total                                23.28               7.70           5.57            22.88      59.43
           2013
           Primary                              18.90               6.25           4.53            18.59      48.27
           Secondary                                5.40            1.79           1.29             5.31      13.79
           Total                                24.30               8.04           5.82            23.90      62.06


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           Trade area and year                                    Take home               Meals out                      Homewares/
           ending June                                                  food              take away           Apparel       services               Total
                                                                        ($m)                   ($m)             ($m)           ($m)                ($m)
           2015
           Primary                                                    19.32                    6.39              4.63          19.00               49.34
           Secondary                                                   5.81                    1.92              1.39           5.72               14.84
           Total                                                      25.13                    8.31              6.02          24.72               64.18
           2017
           Primary                                                    19.68                    6.51              4.72          19.35               50.26
           Secondary                                                   6.17                    2.04              1.48           6.07               15.76
           Total                                                      25.85                    8.55              6.20          25.42               66.02


           Increase 2010-2013                                          1.02                    0.34              0.25           1.02                2.63
           Increase 2013–2017                                          1.55                    0.51              0.38           1.52                3.96
           Total                                                       2.57                    0.85              0.63           2.54                6.59
         Source: Tables 3.1 and 3.3; Foresight Partners calculations.


                                          Figure 3.3: Growth in available resident retail spend, Noosaville convenience retail centre
                                                                           (constant 2009 $ values)

                                40.00
                                                       Food           Non-food
                                35.00


                                30.00
            Spending ($ mill)




                                25.00


                                20.00
                                                                                                                                34.40
                                                                                                      33.44
                                                                        32.34




                                                                                                                                           31.62
                                               30.98




                                                                                                                 30.74
                                                                                      29.72
                                                          28.45




                                15.00


                                10.00


                                 5.00


                                 0.00
                                                       2010                     2013                          2015                      2017
                                                                                       Year ending June




           Trade area households at June 2010 generated approximately $59.4 million in
           retail sales potential. This expenditure potential is forecast to increase to:
                                 •      $62.1 million by June 2013 (first full year of trading);
                                 •      $64.2 million by June 2015; and
                                 •      $66.0 million by June 2017.




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           Available retail expenditure from trade area households is expected to increase
           by $2.6 million to June 2013, which is the assumed first full year of trading of
           the proposed Noosaville convenience retail centre. Over the four year period to
           2017, the pool of resident generated retail expenditure is expected to increase
           by a further $4.0 million. In total, retail expenditure by trade area households is
           forecast to increase by $6.6 million over the forecast period, with primary
           households contributing $3.5 million to the forecast increase.
           No allowance has been made for inflation in forecasting future retail
           expenditure, as inflation does not create demand for retail floor space.
           However, a 0.5% per annum increase in real spending potential has been
           factored into post-2010 expenditure estimates.

3.5        VISITOR MARKET

           Visitors represent a secondary market for the proposed Noosaville convenience
           retail centre.

3.5.1      Visitor accommodation

           Whilst a small proportion of visitors stay in private dwellings most stay in
           commercial accommodation.        The predominant forms of commercial
           accommodation available in the Noosa-Noosaville area are hotels, motels,
           guest houses and serviced apartments, holiday flats and units. (Refer to
           Appendix A for a summary of commercial accommodation available in Noosa-
           Noosaville area).
           Figure 3.4 shows the locations of hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced
           apartments surrounding the subject site. Within the defined trade area, there are
           40 accommodation establishments collectively comprising over 1,000 rooms.
           Of this, ten establishments with approximately 300 rooms are within a 500
           metre radius – a walkable distance from the subject site.
           Based on the 1,016 rooms identified within the trade area, this yields a total of
           370,840 annual room nights available. At the average Noosa-Noosaville
           occupancy rate (59.7%), total annual room nights occupied amounts to
           approximately 221,400. After taking into consideration average length of stay
           (3.6 days) and persons per room (2.0), it is estimated that the defined catchment
           attracts 123,000 overnight visitors a year. This translates into 442,800 visitor
           nights a year.




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Figure 3.4: Visitor Accommodation within Trade Area




           0                 0.5                  1

                       kilometres




                                                                   Subject
                                                                   Subject Site
                                                                           Site
                                                      500
                                                      500 metres
                                                          metres

Page 29

3.5.2      Visitor expenditure

           Tourism Research Australia data estimate that domestic overnight visitors
           spent approximately 11 million nights in the Sunshine Coast tourism region
           (year ending March 2010), representing about 80% of overnight visitors.
           International visitors spent over 2 million nights in the Sunshine Coast region
           in the year ended March 2010 (20% of overnight visitors) and approximately 5
           million day trips were made to the Sunshine Coast region in the year ended
           March 20101.
           The total estimated expenditure on food and drink, and shopping as at March
           2010 for the Sunshine Coast tourism region is shown in Table 3.5 for domestic
           visitors, international visitors and day visitors. It should be noted that
           visitation and average expenditure per visitor night, especially for international
           visitors, can be volatile over time as the mix of visitors changes.

         Table 3.5: Estimated retail expenditure by domestic, international and day visitors
                    to the Sunshine Coast, March 2010 (2009 $ values)
                                                              Domestic    International          Day
           Total expenditure                                   visitors         visitors     visitors       Total
           Food and drink ($ million)                            484.0             46.2       137.2         667.4
           Shopping ($ million)                                  192.3             18.0       122.2         332.5
           Total retail expenditure ($ million)                  676.3             64.2       259.4         999.9


           Visitor nights/day visitors (million)                  11.0              2.5          5.0               –
           Average retail spend per night/day trip ($)              61               25           52               –


           Annual visitors in catchment                         98,400          24,600      500,000      623,000
           Total retail expenditure ($ million)                    6.0              0.6         26.0         32.6

           Source: Travel by Australians, March 2010, & International Visitors in Australia, March 2010. Tourism
                  Australia; Sunshine Coast Regional Snapshot, Year ended March 2010, Tourism
                  Queensland;Foresight Partners estimates.

           At March 2010, expenditure on these items by visitors to the Sunshine Coast
           was (at 2009 dollar values):
                 •    $676.3 million for domestic visitors ($61 per domestic visitor night);
                 •    $64.2 million for international visitors ($25 per international visitor
                      night); and
                 •    $259.4 million for day visitors ($52 per daytripper).
           The defined catchment has an estimated annual overnight visitor population of
           123,000. The proportion of domestic overnight and international overnight
           visitors to the Sunshine Coast can be used to estimate the number of visitors
           within the catchment. Assuming an 80:20 split, there are 98,400 domestic
           overnight and 24,600 international overnight visitors respectively. Day trip


           1
             Travel by Australians, March 2010; International Visitors in Australia, March 2010,
           Tourism Research Australia.

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           visitors to the Noosaville area are estimated at 10% of the total day visitor
           population on the Sunshine Coast, on par with the proportion of overnight
           visitors. Thus, some $32.6 million in retail spending is potentially available to
           Noosaville business, comprising:
                 •    $6.0 million generated by domestic visitors (staying in both commercial
                      accommodation and private accommodation);
                 •    $0.6 million generated by international visitors (staying in both
                      commercial and private accommodation); and
                 •    $26.0 million generated by day visitors.
           Assuming a modest 1% per annum growth in visitor retail expenditure over the
           2010 to 2017 forecast period, future expenditure available to Noosaville
           retailers could increase from the current estimated $32.6 million to:
                 •    $33.6 million at 2013, the first year of trading for Noosaville
                      convenience retail centre;
                 •    $34.3 million at 2015.
                 •    $35.0 million at 2017.
           Thus local visitors generate a large pool of retail expenditure. However, it
           should be noted that not all of this available spending will be directed to the
           subject proposal with other retail centres including those in Noosa and further
           afield at Maroochydore and the Sunshine Coast Hinterland attracting a share of
           the total spending available.

3.6         TOTAL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

           Total expenditure potential by the trade area resident and visitor markets is set
           out in Table 3.6 below.

           Table 3.6:      Retail expenditure potential available from resident and visitor
                           markets, 2010-2017 (2009 $ values)
                                                Resident ($m)             Visitor ($m)   Total ($m)
             2010                                         59.4                   32.6          92.0
             2013                                         62.1                   33.6          95.7
             2015                                         64.2                   34.3          98.5
             2017                                         66.0                   35.0         101.0


             Increase 2010-2013                              2.6                  1.0           3.6
             Increase 2013-2017                              4.0                  1.4           5.4
             Total                                           6.6                  2.4           9.0

           Source: Tables 3.4 and 3.5; Foresight Partners calculations.

           At June 2010, these markets collectively generated an estimated $92.0 million
           in retail sales potential. This is forecast to increase to:
                 •    $95.7 million by June 2013 (first full year of trading);

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                 •    $98.5 million by June 2015; and
                 •    $101.0 million by June 2017.
           Thus, over the seven year period, total annual resident and visitor expenditure
           potential is forecast to increase by around $9.0 million.




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4          Centre Performance and Impact
           This section sets out the likely performance and feasibility of the proposed
           Noosaville convenience retail centre and discusses its implications with respect
           to impacts upon the existing network of centres serving the Noosa area.

4.1        CENTRE PERFORMANCE PROSPECTS

           The proposal’s future performance will depend, in part, upon its mix of retail
           and other uses, available pool of retail spending and future growth potential.

4.1.1      Tenancy mix

           The tenancy mix has been prepared to denote the centre’s role and function as
           convenience retail centre. The applicant has to-date received expressions of
           interest from Night Owl, Nando’s, Noodle Box, and Pizza Hut, and these are
           incorporated as part of the tenancy mix. (Refer to Appendix B for letters of
           interest).
           The mix of tenants is expected to include a range of convenience retailers that
           would complement the existing choice of retailers within the area, particularly
           those within the Noosaville Business Centre.
           The subject development would be anchored by a convenience store (i.e. Night
           Owl or 7-11). Its tenancy mix is proposed to comprise several take away food
           retailers operating extended trading hours, thereby addressing the limited
           choice of such facilities in the area.
           Table 4.1 sets out an indicative tenancy mix for the proposed centre.

           Table 4.1:      Indicative tenancy mix, proposed Noosaville convenience retail
                           centre
                                              Take home        Meals out/                    Homewares              Total
                                                    food       take away          Apparel     & services
             Shop type                              (m²)             (m²)            (m²)           (m²)
             Convenience Retail
             Convenience store                       125                                              18            143
             Bakery/patisserie                       144                                                            144
             Deli/café                                                165                                           165
             Takeaways                                                352                                           352
             Total convenience retail                269              517           -                 18            804
             Professional services                                                                                  111
             Total centre*                                                                                          915

           * A further 98m² is provided for alfresco dining. Source: Marquette Properties and Foresight Partners.




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4.2        CENTRE MARKET SHARES AND TURNOVER FORECASTS

           The centre’s market shares have been formulated under the following
           assumptions:
                 •    The centre will serve as a convenience based retail destination
                      providing a wide selection of convenience retailers in the one location
                      with extended trading hours.
                 •    The convenience store will provide just that – basic convenience items
                      currently underrepresented in the area. In light of its convenience
                      function and role, it would be largely distinct to other retail centres such
                      as Noosa Village which caters primarily for major food and grocery
                      shopping trips.
                 •    It will provide the single largest clustering of fast food outlets with
                      extended operating hours, affordably priced.
                 •    Access to the centre will be off both Gibson Road and Skipper Place.
                      There will also be provision for on-site parking making the centre easily
                      accessible and convenient to patrons.
                 •    It will be within walking distance to approximately half of its resident
                      catchment and also to a large visitor market.
                 •    Noosa Civic will be expanded with the addition of a department store,
                      discount department store, supermarket, and specialty shops.
           Table 4.2 below sets out our estimates of market shares and sales likely to be
           achievable by the proposed centre at 2013. It assumes that the 143m²
           convenience store is accompanied by a number of specialty shops,
           predominantly take away and also a bakery/patisserie and bank (Note that
           approximately 18m² of the convenience store space is allocated to the
           homewares/services commodity group in Table 4.1 to reflect its non-food
           merchandise). Overall, the centre is forecast to achieve sales of $4.5 million
           ($5,647/m²) at June 2013.
           Figure 4.1 shows the origin of the centre’s turnover at 2013 by trade area.
           The centre is expected to draw 7.5% of the take home food spending generated
           by primary trade area households and 3.0% of the secondary trade area’s take
           home food spending.
           The highest penetration would be achieved in the meals out/take away
           spending. The clustering of four national fast food outlets together with a
           deli/café will be highly appealing to the resident and visitor market. The subject
           proposal will be the most convenient fast food retail destination to primary and
           secondary households with provision of on-site parking and extended operating
           hours, thereby enhancing convenience.
           An estimated 34.4% of the centre’s sales (30% of take home food, 40% of
           meals out-take away, and 20% of homewares/services sales) is expected to
           come from visitors to the area and others residing outside the defined trade
           area. The meals out/take away food component is expected to achieve a higher

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           share of external sales reflecting the lack of fast food outlets in the area and its
           exposure to homeward bound traffic heading west towards Tewantin.

           Table 4.2:      Proposed Noosaville convenience retail centre forecast market
                           shares and retail turnover, June 2013 (2009 $ values)
                                      Take home        Meals out/ take                     Homewares
   Trade area                               food                away         Apparel        & services               Total
   Retail floor space                         269 m²            517 m²              –             18m²               804m²
   Market shares                                (%)               (%)            (%)                (%)                (%)
   Primary                                       7.5              17.5              –               0.7                5.4
   Secondary                                     3.0              10.0              –               0.1                2.5
   Total trade area                              6.5               15.8            –                0.5                 4.8
   Resulting turnover                          ($m)               ($m)          ($m)              ($m)                ($m)
   Primary                                      1.42              1.09              –              0.12               2.63
   Secondary                                    0.16              0.18              –              0.01               0.35
   Total trade area                             1.58              1.27              –              0.13               2.98
   External/rogue sales*                        0.68              0.85              –              0.03               1.56
   Total centre turnover                        2.26              2.12              –              0.16               4.54
   Productivity ($/m²)                         8,401             4,101              –             8,889              5,647

           *Assumes 30% of take home food, 40% of meals out-take away, and 20% of homwares/services sales
            originate outside the defined trade area. Source: Tables 3.4; Foresight Partners estimates.


                           Figure 4.1: Origin of Noosaville Convenience Centre Sales, 2013 ($ million)




                       External, $1.56, 34%




                 Secondary, $0.35,
                                                                                               Primary, $2.63, 58%
                       8%




           Assuming the forecast market shares remain constant, i.e. no other major retail
           additions occur over the forecast period, the centre’s sales would increase to:
                 •    $4.7 million ($5,345/m²) by 2015; and
                 •    $4.8 million ($5,517/m²) by 2017.
           Table 4.3 sets out the detailed origin of sales for these years.

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           Table 4.3:      Proposed Noosaville convenience centre retail turnover at June
                           2015 to 2017 (constant 2009 $ values)
                                     Take home     Meals out/ take    Apparel   Homewares &      Total
   Trade area                         food ($m)        away($m)         ($m)     services ($m)   ($m)
   2015
   Primary                                  1.45               1.12        –             0.12      2.69
   Secondary                                0.17               0.19        –             0.01      0.37
   Total trade area                         1.62               1.31        –             0.13      3.06
   External/rogue sales                     0.69               0.87        –             0.03      1.59
   Total centre turnover                    2.31               2.18        –             0.16      4.65
   Productivity ($/m²)                    8,587               4,217        –            8,889    5,784
   2017
   Primary                                  1.48               1.14        –             0.13      2.75
   Secondary                                0.19               0.20        –             0.01      0.40
   Total trade area                         1.67               1.34        –             0.14      3.15
   External/rogue sales                     0.72               0.89        –             0.04      1.65
   Total centre turnover                    2.39               2.23        –             0.18      4.80
   Productivity ($/m²)                    8,885               4,313        –           10,000    5,970

           Source: Table 4.2; Foresight Partners estimates.


4.3         IMPACT ANALYSIS


4.3.1       Economic impact defined

           Economic impact stems from the probable reduction in retail turnover at
           existing shopping centres and retail areas attributable to the introduction of
           competitive development in the form of a new centre, or the expansion of an
           existing centre. The expected turnover generated by the new centre, or the
           additional turnover generated by centre extensions, represents the dollar impact
           on an area’s retail network in the first full trading year in which it is introduced.
           That is, once the new centre or centre extensions have been trading long
           enough to ‘settle in’ (usually a year), subsequent improvements in that centre’s
           turnover performance cannot be considered as a further impact, as it is an
           established part of the retail network. It then becomes subject to the impacts of
           competitive strategies of other centres and/or the impacts of further new
           competition.
           Dollar impacts are usually distributed among competitive centres and retail
           areas taking into account:
                 •    the new or extended centre’s size and function;
                 •    the location of competitive centres or retail areas of comparable size
                      and/or function;
                 •    shopper access relative to competitive centres/retail areas;

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                 •    physical attributes of competitive centres and retail areas, such as age,
                      design, situation (free-standing centre or part of a central business area),
                      etc.
           No universally accepted standards of impact exist (or are possible) as each
           retail market and retail development is different. A frequently used ‘rule of
           thumb’ is that an impact of 15% or more of turnover should be cause for
           concern. This concern is not about the impacts upon the profitability of
           affected centres and retailers, or about affording existing centres and retailers’
           protection from healthy competition or from changing market conditions.
           The primary concern is to ensure that the premature or inappropriate
           introduction of a new centre or centre extension does not jeopardise the current
           or future delivery of a range of retail goods and services available in a variety
           of centre types and formats to the community.
           This rule of thumb must be applied with considerable caution as each centre
           and trade area is different. For example, in stable or declining markets in many
           rural communities, impacts of 15% or more upon an existing centre or retail
           area would be cause for concern. There may be insufficient prospects for
           growth to ameliorate these impacts within a reasonable time period (usually
           about three years). Even then, the potential loss (or change of use) of existing
           retail facilities, which might consist of old or outdated floor space, must be
           weighed against the replacement and improvement of retail facilities that a new
           development might bring.
           Areas with high growth potential can absorb impacts on centre turnovers well
           above the 15% rule of thumb, usually with little difficulty. Growth in the pool
           of retail expenditure available to support all retail centres usually will quickly
           restore turnover initially lost to new competitive centres in such areas.

4.3.2      Amount and distribution of impacts

           The proposed convenience retail centre will serve a complementary role to the
           Noosaville Business Centre and meet the lower-order retail needs of the
           resident and visitor population. In contrast, the traditional supermarket at
           Noosa Village provides for the major chore food shopping needs of the
           population. Therefore, they will not compete directly with one another.
           In terms of fast food, a reconnaissance of the area has identified a relative
           shortfall. The Noosaville Visitor Mixed Use Zone (i.e. Gympie Terrace) has a
           diverse mix of restaurants and cafes, generally aimed at the higher socio-
           economic market and this is discernible through the menus’ price points. There
           is a small clustering of fast food outlets on Thomas Street but apart from the
           Red Rooster, the price points are also higher than those proposed as part of the
           subject proposal. Furthermore, their operating hours are generally restricted to
           dinner only.
           In effect, there are only three moderately priced local fast food outlets that are
           comparable to those proposed within the subject development – McDonalds,



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           Dominos and Red Rooster. Therefore, the subject proposal would expand the
           range and choice of fast food outlets within the local community.
           The Noosaville convenience retail centre is forecast to capture less than 5% of
           retail spending from local trade area residents and visitors. It is forecast to
           achieve a total turnover of $4.5 million at June 2013 and this amount represents
           the level of impact it will have upon Noosa Shire’s retail network.
           Estimates of the likely distribution or transfer of this $4.5 million in impacts
           upon the network are shown in Table 4.4.
           Virtually all of the potential impact or transfer of sales to the subject centre is
           likely to be from other centres with food stores and other convenience retailers.

           Table 4.4:      Forecast transfer of sales, proposed Noosaville centre, June 2013
                           (2009 $ values)
                                                                              Sales transfers
           Major centres/areas                                             ($ million)          (%)
           Noosaville Business Centre                                            1.59       35.0
           Noosaville Visitor Mixed Use Zone (i.e. Gympie Terrace)               1.14       25.0
           Noosa Civic                                                           0.91       20.0
           Other centres within and beyond trade area                            0.91       20.0
           Total distribution                                                   $4.54      100.0

           Source: Foresight Partners estimates.

           It is estimated that the largest transfer of sales ($1.6 million) would be from the
           Noosaville Business Centre. While the subject proposal will serve a
           complementary role to the Noosaville Business Centre, it is the closest retail
           destination providing the trade area’s only major supermarket and a limited
           range of fast food.
           Approximately 25% of $1.1 million is expected to be drawn from the
           Noosaville Visitor Mixed Use Zone, which provides the area’s largest
           concentration of restaurants and cafes.
           Around $0.9 million or 20% of the forecast turnover is expected to be
           transferred from Noosa Civic which is Noosa’s single largest retail centre
           providing for the higher order retail needs of residents.
           The remaining $0.9 million in sales will be transferred from a large range of
           centres both within and outside of the defined trade area. These include the
           Aldi supermarket, Noosa Junction Business Centre (Noosa Fair and Noosa
           Junction), Tewantin, Hastings Street, and smaller neighbourhood centres
           (Noosa Outlook, Bushlands Shopping Centre, Noosa Wharf). As turnover
           would be redirected over a large number of centres/areas, no single centre/area
           is expected to experience more than minor levels of impacts. Therefore, the
           levels of impact should not affect the vitality, viability or functional role of the
           network of centres serving Noosa Shire.




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4.3.3       Amelioration of impacts

           Between 2010 and 2013, before the proposed centre completes its first year of
           trading, household retail expenditure available to all retailers should increase
           by about $2.6 million to $62.1 million (constant 2009 dollar values). Visitor
           spending should also increase by $1.0 million to $33.6 million over the same
           period culminating in a total increase of $3.6 million to $95.7 million.
           Between the proposed centre’s first and fifth years of trading (2013–2017),
           available retail spending by residents and visitors should increase by another
           $5.4 million to $101.0 million. This further increase in available spending
           should enable affected centres to recoup most of the impacts attributable to the
           Noosaville convenience retail centre within a year or two.
           In our opinion, levels of impact forecast are not sufficient to effect the viability
           of existing or future centres or retail areas in and near the defined trade area, or
           threaten their functional roles and levels of service they currently provide to the
           community.




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5          Need and Impacts

5.1        NEED

           The need for the proposal is indicated by the following:
                 •    The local area has a substantial number of residents and visitors:
                         o     The resident population within the main trade area is currently
                               estimated at 4,700 persons of whom 3,600 reside in the primary
                               trade area – that is within one kilometre from the subject site.
                         o     Within the defined catchment, there are a total of 40 visitor
                               accommodation establishments collectively comprising over
                               1,000 rooms. This area attracts an estimated 123,000 overnight
                               visitors and 442,800 visitor nights annually.
                         o     Within a 500 metre radius of the subject site, there are 10 visitor
                               accommodation establishments with a total of 305 rooms. Thus,
                               accommodation units within the immediate vicinity of the
                               subject site generate an estimated 133,200 visitor nights
                               annually.
                         o     The trade area market is forecast to continue to grow.
                               Expenditure potential generated by the trade area resident and
                               visitor market is currently estimated at $92.0 million which is
                               forecast to increase to $101.0 million by 2017, an increase of
                               $9.0 million over the seven year period.
                 •    The local area is undersupplied with convenience retail facilities:
                         o     There are no existing or proposed convenience retail centres in
                               Noosaville.
                         o     Food and grocery products in Noosaville are only available at (1)
                               a full-line supermarket that caters mainly to major grocery
                               shopping trips and is not open for extended hours, (2) a petrol
                               station convenience store on the eastern fringe of Noosaville, (3)
                               a small specialty store on Gympie Terrace with parking
                               constraints, and (4) the Aldi supermarket on the fringe of the
                               trade area has a limited and distinct product mix.2
                         o     The existing shops and services within the Noosaville Visitor
                               Mixed Use Zone mainly cater to destination dining and
                               relatively high price points. They are not within a walkable


           2
            Aldi has around 700 SKU’s compared to 20,000-25,000 SKU’s in a traditional supermarket
           and it has largely distinct product lines. Because of its product mix, it functions more as
           destination shopping.

Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
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                               distance for many trade area residents and there are parking
                               constraints.
                         o     The selection of fast food/take aways around Thomas Street has
                               relatively high price points and restricted trading hours.
                         o     The limited selection of such facilities in the local area
                               encourages vehicle travel to access shops and services further
                               afield.
                         o     Supermarkets and convenience retailing serve different functions
                               and therefore are commonly located within walking distance of
                               each other. On the Sunshine Coast, examples include:
                                    - Mooloolaba Central (Coles) and Mooloolaba Junction
                                      (Night Owl);
                                    - Noosa Junction (Supa IGA) / Noosa Fair (Coles) and 7-11
                                      (on Noosa Drive); and
                                    - Coolum Park (Woolworths) and Coolum Park (Foodworks).
                 •    There are no alternative locations available in Noosaville for a
                      convenience centre:
                         o     Our assessment has found no suitably zoned sites.
                         o     There are no development applications for convenience retail
                               centres in Noosaville.
                         o     As per their letters of interest (Appendix B), convenience
                               retailers have been unable to find a suitable location for their
                               business in the area.

5.2        IMPACTS

           Impacts of the proposed convenience retail centre upon competitive centres
           will be minor and not jeopardise their vitality or viability, or threaten their
           functional roles:
                 •    The lettable area of the Noosaville convenience retail centre (915m²) is
                      equivalent to less than 5% of the total retail floorspace in the Noosaville
                      Business Centre (24,000m²). The proposal will add eight shops to the
                      over 70 existing shops in the Noosaville Business Centre. Its limited
                      size gives the subject proposal a strong convenience orientation which
                      will complement the much more comprehensive retail offering in the
                      Noosaville Business Centre.
                 •    The maximum impact is forecast on the Noosaville Business Centre
                      ($1.6 million), which would represent less than 2% of its turnover and
                      would not threaten its viability.
                 •    Continuing growth in residents and visitors in the area will help
                      ameliorate any impacts on centres/areas currently serving Noosa Shire
                      residents with no levels of impact threatening the functional roles and

Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
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Page 41

                      levels of service the existing retail network currently provides to the
                      community.

5.3        OTHER COMMUNITY BENEFITS

           The proposed centre should also generate beneficial impacts, such as:
                 •    providing trade area residents with greater choice and variety of shops
                      and food services with extended operating hours;
                 •    introducing more affordably priced food and beverage services;
                 •    enhancing competition in pricing and service;
                 •    providing ease of accessibility with ample parking in light of high
                      vehicle mobility of local residents;
                 •    providing facilities within walking distance of many trade area residents
                      and visitors, thereby generating savings in travel time and costs; and
                 •    providing additional local employment, generating the full-time
                      equivalent of approximately 40 to 50 employees3.

5.4        CONCLUSION

           Our market investigations indicate that the proposed convenience centre can be
           supported at the subject site at 2013. Notwithstanding the planning scheme
           provisions, the market size and characteristics indicate that there is significant
           demand for this facility particularly in light of the existing undersupply of
           convenience retail facilities in the Noosaville area.
           The assessment of need for the proposed development at Noosaville can be
           considered within two categories:
           Retailer Need – There is a lack of alternative suitably zoned sites in the local
           area with convenience retailers unable to find suitable locations for their
           businesses. The subject site provides an opportunity for a convenience retail
           centre to establish in a central and convenient location in Noosaville. The local
           area has a substantial resident and visitor population which is underserved by
           convenience retail facilities.
           Anecdotal evidence shows the proposal will sustain a number of local
           businesses which have proven difficult in other areas including Gympie
           Terrace, Hastings Street and Noosa Sound as a result of high rents.
           Community Need – Local residents and visitors would reasonably expect the
           provision of local convenience retailing as the local area is undersupplied with
           respect to convenience retail and food service facilities compared to the range
           typically available to residents in urban areas and visitors in significant tourism


           3
             Based upon an average of one worker per 26 m² of neighbourhood shopping centre space
           (source: Queensland Shopping Centre Industry, Property Council of Australia, January 1999).

Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
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Page 42

           areas. Development of the proposed convenience retail centre would satisfy a
           range of consumer needs:
                 •    increasing the range and availability of convenience retailing including
                      food and beverage services in the local area;
                 •    expanding the choice of convenience store operators and food and
                      beverage services in the area;
                 •    increasing the level of convenience in terms of operating hours and car
                      parking;
                 •    increasing affordably priced food and beverage services;
                 •    providing access to a wider range of goods and services in a convenient
                      location with high visibility and good vehicular access and parking;
                 •    reducing the need to travel to convenience centres further afield for the
                      purchase of basic convenience items, including take away food meals;
                 •    providing the opportunity for local residents and visitors to walk and
                      cycle to the convenience centre generating savings in travel time and
                      costs;
                 •    enhancing the potential for convenient multi-purpose trips such as to
                      the centre and tavern;
                 •    enhancing competition in the local area, which could have positive
                      impacts on prices;
                 •    providing a focus for social and community interaction through the food
                      and beverage facilities; and
                 •    creating additional employment opportunities both in the short-term
                      during the construction phase as well as in the long-term.
           Our investigations and market assessment conclude that there is a community
           and planning need for the development and the proposal will create a benefit to
           the community. Local residents and visitors would unarguably benefit from a
           modern convenience retail centre, including a small convenience store and a
           complementary range of food and beverage services.
           The proposal will ensure the provision of appropriate facilities to meet
           community needs for basic requirements. The Noosaville convenience centre is
           not expected to jeopardise the vitality or viability, or threaten the functional
           roles and levels of service competitive centres provide to the community.




Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
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Page 43

           Appendix A

           VISITOR MARKET

           Visitor accommodation

           Since the March quarter 2005, hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced
           apartments surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics has included
           establishments with five or more rooms. Similarly, holiday flats, units and
           houses include letting entities (owners, managers or real estate agencies) with
           five or more units available.
           Table A.1 summarises the commercial accommodation available in the Noosa-
           Noosaville area and Sunshine Coast tourism regions. In the year ending March
           quarter 2010, Noosa-Noosaville accounted for:
                 •    27% of all room stock and 29% of all room nights spent in the
                      Sunshine Coast region, with an annual average occupancy slightly
                      higher than the Sunshine Coast (59.7% and 57.4% respectively);
                 •    A longer average length of stay (3.6 days) compared to the Sunshine
                      Coast (3.3 days);
                 •    38% of all holiday unit stock and 38% of all unit nights spent in the
                      Sunshine Coast region;
                 •    A similar unit occupancy rate (58.0% versus 58.4%) and a similar
                      average length of stay (2.7 days in Noosa-Noosaville and 2.6 days in
                      the Sunshine Coast region).

       Table A.1: Visitor commercial accommodation, year ending March 2010, Noosa-
                  Noosaville and the Sunshine Coast tourism region

                                                        Type of Commercial Accommodation
                                                 Hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced apartments
                                    Establishments     Room Stocks      Room Nights        Room Occ     Avg length of
   Area                                      (No.)           (No.)        Occ (No.)             (%)       stay (days)
   Noosa-Noosaville                              34            1,499         326,733            59.7             3.6
   Sunshine Coast                              122             5,457       1,143,908            57.4             3.3
                                                             Holiday flats, units and houses
                                    Letting entities    Unit Stocks       Unit Nights   Unit Occ (%)    Avg length of
                                              (No.)           (No.)        Occ (No.)                      stay (days)
   Noosa-Noosaville                              38            1,699         359,496            58.0             2.7
   Sunshine Coast                              105             4,431         944,233            58.4             2.6
           Source:ABS Tourist Acommodation, Small Area Data, Queensland.

           Figure A.1 shows the seasonality of hotel room occupancy rates for
           establishments with 15 or more rooms, over the past four years.


Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
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19 October 2010                                         38

Page 44

                                          Figure A.1: Room Occupancy rates, Hotels with 15 or more rooms, Noosa Shire
                                                      and the Sunshine Coast tourism region, March 2005 to March 2010

                                                   Room Occupancy Rates (15+ Rooms), Noosa-Noosaville and Sunshine Coast Tourism Region

                              90.0
                              80.0
  Occupancy Rate (per cent)




                              70.0
                              60.0
                              50.0
                              40.0
                              30.0                                                                                      Noosa-Noosaville

                              20.0                                                                                      Sunshine Coast TR

                              10.0                                                                                      Sunshine Coast Annual Average
                               0.0
                                        05




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                                           Source: ABS Tourist Accommodation, Small Area Data, Queensland. Note: Due to changes in recording
                                          methodology, this graph shows room occupancy rates for establishments with 15 or more rooms only.

                                          The Noosa-Noosaville and Sunshine Coast tourism region share very similar
                                          patterns of seasonality.
                                          Room occupancy peaks in the September and December months, coinciding
                                          with the longer school holidays, and experience a low season in the months of
                                          March and April, where school seasons are the shortest. Generally, Noosa-
                                          Noosaville experiences higher peaks in occupancy than the Sunshine Coast, but
                                          lower low season.

                                          Visitor expenditure

                                          Tourism Research Australia (TRA) publishes quarterly survey data on the
                                          number of visitors and types of visits to tourism regions of Australia. The
                                          National Visitor Survey and International Visitor Survey do not, however,
                                          present specific data for the former local government areas (i.e. Noosa Shire,
                                          Maroochy Shire or Caloundra City). However, the surveys do include visitor
                                          night data for all nights spent away from home, whether spent in commercial
                                          accommodation, with friends and relatives, camping or in their own holiday
                                          home. Thus, the TRA surveys provide more comprehensive information on the
                                          number and type of visitors to a tourism region than the ABS Tourist
                                          Accommodation survey which only includes commercial accommodation
                                          facilities.
                                          TRA defines day trips as round trips of at least 50 kilometres, which results in
                                          the traveler spending four or more hours away from home. Day trips exclude
                                          routine trips such as work and school commuting but do include shopping trips.
                                          Essentially, a person who lives in Noosa and travels to Maroochydore to
                                          complete their shopping and stays away from home for more than four hours, is
                                          a day tripper and their expenditure on that trip is counted as part of the TRA
                                          spending estimates for the Sunshine Coast day trip market.


Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
10034 Rev 1
19 October 2010                                                                       39

Page 45

           These characteristics of the TRA survey data make it difficult to separate out
           visitor retail spending from resident household spending, and some double-
           counting of expenditure is unavoidable. Nonetheless, the TRA survey and
           other data allows for an approximation of retail spending by visitors and day
           trippers in the Sunshine Coast region to be made, and a fair share assumption
           applied to the spending potential for the Noosa-Noosaville area. That is,
           Noosa-Noosaville’s potential share of visitor expenditure would be roughly
           equivalent to its share of the Sunshine Coast’s room–unit stocks and room–unit
           nights.




Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
10034 Rev 1
19 October 2010                              40

Page 46

           Appendix B

           EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST




Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
10034 Rev 1
19 October 2010                      41

Page 47

10 August 2010

Matthew Creagh

Director - Marquette Properties

P: 0432 484 752

E: [email protected]

W: www.marquette.com.au

Matthew,

OFFER TO LEASE — 150m2 Noosaville Convenience Centre — Cnr Gibson Rd & Skipper

Place

We are prepared to lease the above premises in accordance with the following terms and
conditions and subject to terms of the Standard Lease and the Lessor’s Board Approval.

1.

2.

Lessor:

Lessee:

Leased Premises:

Area (Approximately):

Term:

Gross Rental:

Rental Reviews:

Options:

TBC

Nightow! Properties Pty Ltd

(ACN 126 734 549)

Level 1, 9 Murrajong Road

SPRINGWOOD QLD 4127

Position TBC

TBC 150-180m? (Estimated NLA)

Area subject to final survey - Survey to be completed
at Lessor's expense in accordance with PCA
standard methods of measurement for retail.

5 years

$500per m* + GST per annum

(Which is equal to $75,000.00 plus GST per annum
assuming an area of 150m7).

CPI per annum during the initial term.

At commencement of the option period rent will be
reviewed to market (rent not to decrease) with CPI
reviews per annum.

2 x Five (5) years.

The Lessee is required to exercise the option no

earlier than twelve (12) months and no later than nine
(9) months prior to Lease expiry.

Page 48

10.

11.

12.

13.

14,

15,

16.

17.

Incentives:

Permissible Use:

Core Trading Hours:

Bank Guarantee:

Tenancy Handover Date:

Lease Commencement:

Rental Commencement:

Outgoings & Cleaning:

Public Liability Insurance:

Lease
Costs:

Document

& Legal

1) 4 weeks rent free (Fit-Out period) from handover
date.

2) 6 months rent free thereafter. TO be taken as
50% rent for the first year

24hr/7day Convenience Store. Lessor is responsible
for providing DA approval for our use.

Min trading hours 0500-2400 (7days)
Max trading hours: 24hrs (7days)

Bank guarantee or retail bond- equivalent to 3/12.0f
annual rent in favour of the landlord and have an
expiry date 3 months after the tenancy has been
vacated & made good.

Bank Guarantee is to be provided upon granting of
possession of the tenancy and will be acceptable
from the sub-lessee (NightOwl Franchisees).

TBC
TBC
TBC
N/A

The Lessee shall maintain a current Public Liability
Insurance policy of at least $20 million and provide
the Lessor with a Certificate of Currency as and when
requested.

All Lease documentation will be drafted by the
Lessor's solicitor. The Lessor and Lessee will each
be responsible for their own legal costs associated
with the preparation and execution of the lease
documentation.

The Lessee will be responsible for the costs
associated with the stamping and registration of the
lease documentation.

The Lessor is responsible for the survey costs
associated with the leased area.

Page 49

18.

19.

20.

21.

Make Good:

Lessor Works:

Lessee Works:

Signage:

As per standard lease conditions.

The Lessor will provide the base building tenancy as
set out in the following documents provided to the
Lessee:

The Lessor will provide the base building tenancy as
set out in the following documents provided to the
Lessee:

e Internal Lighting to NightOwl Specs

e Tiled Flooring to NightOwl Specs

e Install Automatic Biparting auto doors to
NightOwl specs
Tiled Grid Ceiling
Power: 100amp, 3 phase, 36 pole
distribution.

« Min 3 x external mercury vapour floodlights
on awning above tenancy lighting forecourt of
shop and immediate adjacent carparks

« 4x 10min express car bays
Under-slap drainage:

o Cold 20mm water outlet with
stopcock enter the tenancy up
through slab with valve remote read
meter.

o Capped sanitary drain (100mm)
connection outlet at floor level toward
the rear of the tenancy.

o Capped trade waste (100mm)
connection outlet at floor level toward
the rear of the tenancy.

Any Lessee fit-out works to be approved by the
Lessor before any works can commence. The Lessee
will forward indicative plans and a copy of the
Development Application for the Lessor’s review and
consent, such consent cannot be unreasonably
withheld.

The Lessor must either consent or refuse consent
within ten (10) business days of receipt of the
Lessee’s written request for consent. If the Lessor
refuses consent it must provide in writing the reasons
for such refusal.

The Lessee will be entitled to erect its signage on the
fabric of the tenancy, subject to Lessor consent
(which is not to be unreasonably withheld) and local
authority planning approval.

Requirements: 1 x Top Position Illuminated Pylon
Sign, 1 x Under Awning Illuminated Sign, 1 x Fascia
Illuminated Awning Sign, & 2 x NightOwl External
Promotional Lightboards to the shop-front.

Page 50

22.

23.

24,

25.

26.

Electricity & Telephones:

GST Clause:

Shop Occupancy:

Availability:

Special Conditions:

The cost associated with the connection, metering
and consumption of these services is the
responsibility of the Lessee.

The Lessee acknowledges that the Base Rent has
been negotiated without any allowance for a Goods
and Services Tax (“GST”).

The Lessee will pay or reimburse the Lessor at the
same time the base rent is payable for the GST
calculated on the rent and other amounts payable
under the Lease.

Occupancy of the premises will not be permitted until
the Lessee has executed the Lease, provided the
Guarantees and proof of insurances, paid all monies
due to the Lessor and/or its Solicitor and otherwise
complied with the terms of the Lease documents.

TBC

e Centre Naming Rights

e The Tenancy is designated as a food
tenancy and able to sell appropriate Hot &
Cold food items: BBQ Chickens, Chicken
Rolls, Pies, Sausage Rolls, Pastries, Coffee,
Sandwiches, Rolls, Pastries and other food
items as required.

e NightOw securing a Franchisee by
31.12.2010

e Landlord allowing NightOwil to install 2 x
external promotional light-boxes to building
facade. Specifications to be provided to the
landlord for approval before installation.
Such approval and cannot be unreasonably
withheld.

e« Access to one (x1) secure car-park for the
Franchisee.

e Exclusivity: White Milk (>It), Bread, &
Tobacco products.

e Lessor securing the following tenants: Grill’d,
Pizza Hut, Nandos, Nodle Box, Bottleshop,
Cafe & Bank.

Page 51

Upon acceptance of this offer by the Lessor, a Agreement to Lease will be prepared by the
Lessor’s Solicitors. Statutory charges and other ancillary costs including stamp duty are to be at

my/our expense.

Signed As Tenant/s:

On Behalf of Tenant:

In the Presence of:

Acknowledgement:

Nightowl Properties Pty Ltd
(ACN 126 734 549)

Level 1, 9 Murrajong Road
SPRINGWOOD QLD 4127

Joel Douglas

Ross Pallentine

Ue)

 

a) I/we acknowledge that no promise, representation, warranty
or undertaking has been made to me/us in relation to the
potential of the premises to be leased or otherwise in
relation to the Lease unless in writing with this offer and
we further acknowledge that the Permissible Use does not
imply any form of exclusivity.

b) I/we acknowledge that the written terms of this offer and of
any acceptance by the Landlord and of the Standard
Agreement to Lease and Lease will contain the whole of
the agreement reached between me/us and the Landlord.

5

Page 52

The following information is supplied to enable the Lease to be prepared.

Tenant:

Proposed Trading Name:

Address (If Company,

State Registered Office):

Address for Accounts:

State of Incorporation:

Contact:

Telephone:

Solicitors Name &
Address:

TBC

NightOwl Noosaville

Queensland

Locked Bag 3020 Springwood Q 4127

Queensland

Joel Douglas

Business:07 3387 8787
Mobile: 0403 188 027
Facsimile: 07 3387 8788

Donna Field | Paralegal
williams | graham |carman
solicitors

1A Water Street, Cairns Qld 4870 | PO Box 947, Cairns Qld
4870

T: 07 4046 1184 | F: 07 4031 3146 | E: [email protected]
| www.wgclaw.com

Page 53

16 August 2010




          Matthew Creagh
          Marquette Properties
          E: [email protected]

          Dear Matthew,

          RE:    GIBSON RD. NOOSAVILLE


          We wish to formally express interest in letting space in the proposed development in Gibson
          Road, Noosaville.

          We are seeking to establish a Nando's Restaurant and a Noodle Box Outlet. We will require the
          following:

          Nando's:        120 m2 plus 20 m2 alfresco area.

          Noodle Box:     90 m2 plus 20 m2 alfresco area.

          Would you please keep us appraised as to the development process and look forward to a
          positive outcome.


          Yours Sincerely


          RAY CARUANA
          Managing Director
          RECON RETAIL

Page 54

Yum! Restaurants Australia Pty Limited ABN 16 000 674 993
Kentucky Fried Chicken Pty Limited ABN 79 000 587 780
20 Rodborough Road (Locked Bag 522)

Frenchs Forest NSW 2086 Australia

Tel (612) 9930 3000 Fax (612) 9930 3001

Restaurants International

16" August, 2010

Matthew Creagh
Director
Marquette Properties

Via email — [email protected]

Dear Matthew,
Re: __ Expression of interest — Development at 37 Gibson Rd, Noosaville

Following our recent correspondence, I would like to formally register Pizza Hut’s interest in
a tenancy on the proposed development at 37 Gibson Rd, Noosaville.

Noosaville has been identified as an opportunity for Pizza Hut and fits into our 3 year market
plan. However, up until this point we have had difficulty finding a suitable location.

We are therefore keenly interested in this proposed development and feel that Pizza Hut
would complement the tenancy mix.

Pizza Hut requires approx. 80-100sqm.
We look forward to receiving further information as it comes to hand.
My full contact details are:

D: (02) 9930 3033

M: 0414 331 039
E: [email protected]

   
  

urants International

\

  
 

stair Prebble
Development Manager — KFC & Pizza Hut

a ge

Aut Aueeican Foop a — TACO

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