MCU10/2083 Development Application part 2 - Attachment 4 - Economic Impact and Need Assessment

CONTENTS

SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ III

1       INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 1

1.1         Purpose and methodololgy ..........................................................................................................1


2       RETAIL NETWORK.................................................................................... 4

2.1         The Noosa Plan.............................................................................................................................4

2.2      Existing centres.............................................................................................................................4
   2.2.1   Discount department store based centres...................................................................................4
   2.2.2   Major supermarket based centres ..............................................................................................6
   2.2.3   Neighbourhood centres..............................................................................................................8
   2.2.4   Tourist retail areas .....................................................................................................................8

2.3         Proposed developments................................................................................................................9

2.4         Summary .....................................................................................................................................10


3       MARKET FUNDAMENTALS .................................................................... 12

3.1         Trade area defined .....................................................................................................................12

3.2      Resident market..........................................................................................................................12
   3.2.1   Forecast population growth and household formation trends ..................................................14

3.3      Socio-economic characteristics..................................................................................................16
   3.3.1   Retail spending implications....................................................................................................19

3.4      Resident retail expenditure potential........................................................................................19
   3.4.1   Average household retail expenditure .....................................................................................19
   3.4.2   Total household retail expenditure ..........................................................................................20

3.5      Visitor market.............................................................................................................................22
   3.5.1    Visitor accommodation............................................................................................................22
   3.5.2    Visitor expenditure ..................................................................................................................24

3.6         Total expenditure potential .......................................................................................................25


4       CENTRE PERFORMANCE AND IMPACT ............................................... 27

4.1      Centre performance prospects ..................................................................................................27
   4.1.1   Tenancy mix ............................................................................................................................27

4.2         Centre market shares and turnover forecasts .........................................................................28

4.3         Impact analysis ...........................................................................................................................30

Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
10034 Rev 1
19 October 2010                                                              i