MCU10/2083 Development Application part 2 - Attachment 4 - Economic Impact and Need Assessment

           share of external sales reflecting the lack of fast food outlets in the area and its
           exposure to homeward bound traffic heading west towards Tewantin.

           Table 4.2:      Proposed Noosaville convenience retail centre forecast market
                           shares and retail turnover, June 2013 (2009 $ values)
                                      Take home        Meals out/ take                     Homewares
   Trade area                               food                away         Apparel        & services               Total
   Retail floor space                         269 m²            517 m²              –             18m²               804m²
   Market shares                                (%)               (%)            (%)                (%)                (%)
   Primary                                       7.5              17.5              –               0.7                5.4
   Secondary                                     3.0              10.0              –               0.1                2.5
   Total trade area                              6.5               15.8            –                0.5                 4.8
   Resulting turnover                          ($m)               ($m)          ($m)              ($m)                ($m)
   Primary                                      1.42              1.09              –              0.12               2.63
   Secondary                                    0.16              0.18              –              0.01               0.35
   Total trade area                             1.58              1.27              –              0.13               2.98
   External/rogue sales*                        0.68              0.85              –              0.03               1.56
   Total centre turnover                        2.26              2.12              –              0.16               4.54
   Productivity ($/m²)                         8,401             4,101              –             8,889              5,647

           *Assumes 30% of take home food, 40% of meals out-take away, and 20% of homwares/services sales
            originate outside the defined trade area. Source: Tables 3.4; Foresight Partners estimates.


                           Figure 4.1: Origin of Noosaville Convenience Centre Sales, 2013 ($ million)




                       External, $1.56, 34%




                 Secondary, $0.35,
                                                                                               Primary, $2.63, 58%
                       8%




           Assuming the forecast market shares remain constant, i.e. no other major retail
           additions occur over the forecast period, the centre’s sales would increase to:
                 •    $4.7 million ($5,345/m²) by 2015; and
                 •    $4.8 million ($5,517/m²) by 2017.
           Table 4.3 sets out the detailed origin of sales for these years.

Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
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19 October 2010                                            29