MCU10/2083 Development Application part 2 - Attachment 4 - Economic Impact and Need Assessment

           Table 4.3:      Proposed Noosaville convenience centre retail turnover at June
                           2015 to 2017 (constant 2009 $ values)
                                     Take home     Meals out/ take    Apparel   Homewares &      Total
   Trade area                         food ($m)        away($m)         ($m)     services ($m)   ($m)
   2015
   Primary                                  1.45               1.12        –             0.12      2.69
   Secondary                                0.17               0.19        –             0.01      0.37
   Total trade area                         1.62               1.31        –             0.13      3.06
   External/rogue sales                     0.69               0.87        –             0.03      1.59
   Total centre turnover                    2.31               2.18        –             0.16      4.65
   Productivity ($/m²)                    8,587               4,217        –            8,889    5,784
   2017
   Primary                                  1.48               1.14        –             0.13      2.75
   Secondary                                0.19               0.20        –             0.01      0.40
   Total trade area                         1.67               1.34        –             0.14      3.15
   External/rogue sales                     0.72               0.89        –             0.04      1.65
   Total centre turnover                    2.39               2.23        –             0.18      4.80
   Productivity ($/m²)                    8,885               4,313        –           10,000    5,970

           Source: Table 4.2; Foresight Partners estimates.


4.3         IMPACT ANALYSIS


4.3.1       Economic impact defined

           Economic impact stems from the probable reduction in retail turnover at
           existing shopping centres and retail areas attributable to the introduction of
           competitive development in the form of a new centre, or the expansion of an
           existing centre. The expected turnover generated by the new centre, or the
           additional turnover generated by centre extensions, represents the dollar impact
           on an area’s retail network in the first full trading year in which it is introduced.
           That is, once the new centre or centre extensions have been trading long
           enough to ‘settle in’ (usually a year), subsequent improvements in that centre’s
           turnover performance cannot be considered as a further impact, as it is an
           established part of the retail network. It then becomes subject to the impacts of
           competitive strategies of other centres and/or the impacts of further new
           competition.
           Dollar impacts are usually distributed among competitive centres and retail
           areas taking into account:
                 •    the new or extended centre’s size and function;
                 •    the location of competitive centres or retail areas of comparable size
                      and/or function;
                 •    shopper access relative to competitive centres/retail areas;

Noosaville Convenience Centre EIA
10034 Rev 1
19 October 2010                                         30