Planning Economic Report MCU13/0087 (attachment to Email 4 of 5)

                                                                                          Section 5: Retail liquor potential




                                                                                  Table 5.1
                                               Noosa Heads liquor capacity assessm ent, 2012-2020*


                                                                                       2012           2015        2017         2020


       Trade area liquor spend
       • Beer                                                                           8.0            8.3         8.5           8.7
       • Wine                                                                           11.9          12.4        12.7           13.0

       • Spirits                                                                        6.7            6.9         7.1           7.3
       Total resident liquor sales                                                      26.5          27.6        28.2           29.0


       Beyond trade area liquor spend
       • Beer (@ 30%)                                                                   3.4            3.5         3.6           3.7
       • Wine (at 30%)                                                                  5.1            5.3         5.4           5.6

       • Spirits (at 20%)                                                               1.7            1.7         1.8           1.8
       Beyond trade area liquor spend                                                   10.2          10.6        10.8           11.1

       Total liquor sales                                                               36.7          38.1        39.0           40.1

       Estimated liquor sales by store format
       Large format store (market share 50% incr. to 55%)                               18.4          21.0        21.5           22.1
       Small format store (market share 50% decr. to 45%)                               18.4          17.2        17.6           18.1

       Existing & Proposed Supermarkets Floorspace**
       Large format stores                                                             1,200          2,380       2,380        2,380
       Small format stores                                                             2,415          2,415       2,415        2,415

       Estimated average sales per sq.m
       Large format stores **                                                          15,304         8,813       9,024        9,273
       Small format stores                                                             7,605          7,106       7,276        7,477

       *excluding inflatio n and including GST.
       ** pro po sed First Cho ice sto re assumed first year o f trade at 2015.
       So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi




     This analysis above indicates that there is the potential within the Noosa Heads
     area to support all of the liquor floorspace which exists or is proposed to be
     added. Of course whether or not any individual store trades successfully will then
     depend on a range of other factors, the most important by far being the quality of
     the store’s offer, in particular its ranging, pricing, and service levels. There is no
     guarantee that all stores would trade at the average levels as indicated as being
     potentially available in Table 5.1, but there is the potential for all of them to do
     so.


                                                                                        Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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                                                                                                First Choice Assessment     26
                                                                                                              Coles Group