05. Town Planning Report · MCU10/2127

4. Scenario Analysis
4.6 Comparative Analysis                                                         In other words to the extent that owner occupation adds to the overall
The key issue relating to the current application concerns Condition 23          occupancy rate, as seems likely, the outcome is higher overall retail
of the Development Permit, particularly the interpretation of “short term        expenditure than the base case. Negative consequences arise if the
visitor accommodation” and the prohibition of permanent resident                 occupancy rate by visitors and owners are both low.
accommodation.
The lack of clarity is an important issue for potential investors, some of
whom may wish to use their property for their own purposes, at least
some of the available time, despite its location within a holiday resort
environment.
The current situation
              situation, therefore
                         therefore, is that the 38 units that are the subject
of this application are only available to the visitor/tourist market.
Our comparative analysis is therefore based on a comparison between
the various blended outcomes outlined previously and a 50%
occupancy rate, exclusively relating to short term visitors. This is the
‘base case’.
As shown by the shaded section in Table 4.7, the previously discussed
maximum realistic scenario would result in retail expenditure of
$2.55 million, which is some 32.7% above the base case [Indeed, the
theoretical scenario that has the 38 units permanently occupied is
13.1% above the base case].
For the most likely scenarios the retail expenditure outcomes vary from
the base case as follows:
                                             Owner Occupancy
                                             0%        5%      10%
 Visitor Occupancy
             p   y                %
                                40%      -20.0%
                                              %    -11.4%
                                                        %    -3.0%
                                                                 %
                                45%      -10.0%     -1.4%     7.0%
                                50%        -         8.6%    17.0%
We consider that the most likely scenario is a 5% occupancy rate by
owners, i.e. closer to the KPMG assessment, and a 50% occupancy
rate byy visitors,, yields
                    y      retail expenditure
                                    p         of $2.08 million,, or 8.6% above
the ‘base case’.


                                                                                                                                        30