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05. Town Planning Report · MCU10/2127

From the archive MCU10/2127 Development Application part 2 of 2 Plans 5 Morwong Drive Noosa Heads. File date in the archive: 2010-12-20 09:49.

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                  4. Scenario Analysis



Occupancy Rate Matrix - Comparative Analysis, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Table 4.7
Guest Nights Total                                                                                                                                Owner Occupiers
                       Occ. Rates                0%          5%         10%         15%         20%         25%         30%         35%         40%        45%          50%         55%         60%         65%         70%         75%         80%         85%           90%
                                      0%        -         2,334       4,667       7,001       9,334      11,668      14,001      16,335      18,668     21,002       23,335      25,669      28,002      30,336      32,669      35,003      37,337      39,670        42,004
           V                          5%      2,699       5,033       7,366       9,700      12,033      14,367      16,700      19,034      21,367     23,701       26,034      28,368      30,701      33,035      35,369      37,702      40,036      42,369           -
           i                         10%      5,398       7,732      10,065      12,399      14,732      17,066      19,399      21,733      24,066     26,400       28,733      31,067      33,400      35,734      38,068      40,401      42,735         -             -
                                     15%      8,097      10,431      12,764      15,098      17,431      19,765      22,098      24,432      26,765     29,099       31,432      33,766      36,099      38,433      40,767      43,100         -           -             -
           s
                                     20%     10,796      13,130      15,463      17,797      20,130      22,464      24,797      27,131      29,464     31,798       34,131      36,465      38,799      41,132      43,466         -           -           -             -
           i
                                     25%     13,495      15,829      18,162      20,496      22,829      25,163      27,496      29,830      32,163     34,497       36,830      39,164      41,498      43,831         -           -           -           -             -
           t
                                     30%     16,194      18,528      20,861      23,195      25,528      27,862      30,195      32,529      34,862     37,196       39,530      41,863      44,197         -           -           -           -           -             -
           o
                                     35%     18,893      21,227      23,560      25,894      28,227      30,561      32,894      35,228      37,561     39,895       42,229      44,562         -           -           -           -           -           -             -
           r
                                     40%     21,592      23,926      26,259      28,593      30,926      33,260      35,593      37,927      40,260     42,594       44,928         -           -           -           -           -           -           -             -
           s                         45%     24,291      26,625      28,958      31,292      33,625      35,959      38,292      40,626      42,960     45,293          -           -           -           -           -           -           -           -             -
                                     50%     26,990      29,324      31,657      33,991      36,324      38,658      40,991      43,325      45,659        -            -           -           -           -           -           -           -           -             -

Total Visitor & Resident Expediture                                                                                                                Owner Occupiers
Retail ($)             Occ. Rates                 0%          5%         10%         15%         20%         25%         30%         35%         40%        45%          50%         55%         60%         65%         70%         75%         80%         85%          90%
                                      0%         -       165,890     325,611     479,335     627,231     769,460     906,184   1,037,558   1,163,732  1,284,856    1,401,074   1,512,525   1,619,348   1,721,675   1,819,638   1,913,362   2,002,972   2,088,588    2,170,327
           V                          5%     191,873     357,763     517,484     671,208     819,104     961,333   1,098,057   1,229,430   1,355,605  1,476,729    1,592,947   1,704,398   1,811,221   1,913,548   2,011,510   2,105,235   2,194,844   2,280,460          -
                                     10%     383,746     549,636     709,357     863,081   1,010,976   1,153,206   1,289,930   1,421,303   1,547,478  1,668,602    1,784,820   1,896,271   2,003,094   2,105,421   2,203,383   2,297,107   2,386,717         -            -
           i
                                     15%     575,619     741,509     901,230   1,054,954   1,202,849   1,345,079   1,481,803   1,613,176   1,739,351  1,860,475    1,976,692   2,088,144   2,194,967   2,297,294   2,395,256   2,488,980         -           -            -
           s
                                     20%     767,491     933,381   1,093,103   1,246,827   1,394,722   1,536,952   1,673,676   1,805,049   1,931,224  2,052,348    2,168,565   2,280,017   2,386,839   2,489,167   2,587,129         -           -           -            -
           i
                                     25%     959,364   1,125,254   1,284,975   1,438,700   1,586,595   1,728,825   1,865,548   1,996,922   2,123,097  2,244,221    2,360,438   2,471,890   2,578,712   2,681,040         -           -           -           -            -
           t
                                     30%   1,151,237   1,317,127   1,476,848   1,630,573   1,778,468   1,920,697   2,057,421   2,188,795   2,314,969  2,436,094    2,552,311   2,663,763   2,770,585         -           -           -           -           -            -
           o                         35%   1,343,110   1,509,000   1,668,721   1,822,445   1,970,341   2,112,570   2,249,294   2,380,668   2,506,842  2,627,966    2,744,184   2,855,635         -           -           -           -           -           -            -
           r
                                     40%   1,534,983   1,700,873   1,860,594   2,014,318   2,162,213   2,304,443   2,441,167   2,572,540   2,698,715  2,819,839    2,936,057         -           -           -           -           -           -           -            -
           s
                                     45%   1,726,856   1,892,746   2,052,467   2,206,191   2,354,086   2,496,316   2,633,040   2,764,413   2,890,588  3,011,712          -           -           -           -           -           -           -           -            -
                                     50%   1,918,729   2,084,619   2,244,340   2,398,064   2,545,959   2,688,189   2,824,913   2,956,286   3,082,461        -            -           -           -           -           -           -           -           -            -

Variation from Visitor Scenario                                                                                                                    Owner Occupiers
@ 50% Occ. Rate         Occ. Rates                0%          5%         10%         15%         20%         25%         30%         35%         40%        45%          50%         55%         60%         65%        70%         75%         80%         85%          90%
                                      0%        0.0%      -91.4%      -83.0%      -75.0%      -67.3%      -59.9%      -52.8%      -45.9%      -39.3%      -33.0%      -27.0%      -21.2%      -15.6%      -10.3%      -5.2%       -0.3%        4.4%        8.9%        13.1%
           V                          5%      -90.0%
                                               90 0%      -81.4%
                                                           81 4%      -73.0%
                                                                       73 0%      -65.0%
                                                                                   65 0%      -57.3%
                                                                                               57 3%      -49.9%
                                                                                                           49 9%      -42.8%
                                                                                                                       42 8%      -35.9%
                                                                                                                                   35 9%      -29.3%
                                                                                                                                               29 3%      -23.0%
                                                                                                                                                           23 0%      -17.0%
                                                                                                                                                                       17 0%      -11.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                   11 2%       -5.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                5 6%       -0.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            0 3%       4 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4.8%        9 7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   9.7%       14.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              14 4%       18.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18 9%
                                     10%      -80.0%      -71.4%      -63.0%      -55.0%      -47.3%      -39.9%      -32.8%      -25.9%      -19.3%      -13.0%       -7.0%       -1.2%        4.4%        9.7%      14.8%       19.7%       24.4%
           i
                                     15%      -70.0%      -61.4%      -53.0%      -45.0%      -37.3%      -29.9%      -22.8%      -15.9%       -9.3%       -3.0%        3.0%        8.8%       14.4%       19.7%      24.8%       29.7%
           s
                                     20%      -60.0%      -51.4%      -43.0%      -35.0%      -27.3%      -19.9%      -12.8%       -5.9%        0.7%        7.0%       13.0%       18.8%       24.4%       29.7%      34.8%
           i
                                     25%      -50.0%      -41.4%      -33.0%      -25.0%      -17.3%       -9.9%       -2.8%        4.1%       10.7%       17.0%       23.0%       28.8%       34.4%       39.7%
           t
                                     30%      -40.0%      -31.4%      -23.0%      -15.0%       -7.3%        0.1%        7.2%       14.1%       20.7%       27.0%       33.0%       38.8%       44.4%
           o                         35%      -30.0%      -21.4%      -13.0%       -5.0%        2.7%       10.1%       17.2%       24.1%       30.7%       37.0%       43.0%       48.8%
           r
                                     40%      -20.0%      -11.4%       -3.0%        5.0%       12.7%       20.1%       27.2%       34.1%       40.7%       47.0%       53.0%
           s
                                     45%      -10.0%       -1.4%        7.0%       15.0%       22.7%       30.1%       37.2%       44.1%       50.7%       57.0%
                                     50%        0.0%        8.6%       17.0%       25.0%       32.7%       40.1%       47.2%       54.1%       60.7%
Source: Urbis




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4. Scenario Analysis

 

 

Occupancy Rate Matrix - Comparative Analysis, 2010 Table 4.7
[Guest Nights Total meee

Occ. Rate 0% 5% 10% 15%, 20%, 25% 30% 35% 40%, 45% 50%, 55% 60%, 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%
0%] 2334 667 7001 3334 T1668 T4001 76,335 T8668 21,002 73,335 25,669 28,002 30,336 32,669 35,003 37,337 39,670 az004

506] 2,699 5,033 7,366 9,700 12,033, 14,367 16,700 19,034 21,367 23,701 26,034 28,368 30,701 33,035 35,369 37,702 40,036 42,369 >

10%| 5,398 7,732 10,065, 12,399 14,732 17,066 19,399 21,733 24,066 26,400 28,733 31,067 33,400 35,734 38,068 40,401 42,735 - -

15%| 8,097 10,431, 12,764 15,098 17,431, 19,765 22,098 24,432 26,765 29,099 31,432 33,766 36,099 38,433 40,767 43,100 - - -

20%] 10,796 13,130 15,463 17,797 20,130 22,464 24,797 27,131 29,464 31,798 34,131 36,465 38,799 41,132 43,466 - - - -

25%] 13,495 15,829 18,162 20,496 22,829 25,163 27,496 29,830 32,163 34,497 36,830 39,164 41,498 43,831 : : : :

30%] 16,194 18,528 20,861 23,195 25,528 27,862 30,195 32,529 34,862 37,196 39,530 41,863 44,197 - : : : :

° 35%] 18,893 21,227 23,560 25,894 28,227 30,561 32,894 35,228 37,561 39,895 42,229 44,562 - : : : : :

40%] 21,592 23,926 26,259 28,593 30,926 33,260 35,593 37,927 40,260 42,594 44,928 - : : : : : :

45%] 24,291 26,625 28,958 31,292 33,625 35,959 38,292 40,626 42,960 45,293, - : : : : : : :

50%| 26.990 29,324 31,657 33,991 36,324 38,658 40,991 43,325 45,659 : : : : : : : : :

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

[Total Visitor & Resident Expediture

  

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%
= 165,890 325,611 «479,335 «627,231 769,460 906,184 1,087,558 ‘1,163,732 1,284,856 ‘1,401,074 1,512,525 1,619,348 ‘1,721,675 1,819,638 1,913,362 [])2,002)972 2088588 21 70;827,
s%| 191,873 357,763] 517,484] 671,208] 819,104] «961,333 ] 1,098,057] 1,229,430] 1,355,605] 1,476,729] 1,592,947] 1,704,398] 1,811,221] 1,913,548 [2011510], 2,105,285] 2,194,844] 2,280,460 -
10%] 383,746 549,636 | 709,357] 863,081] 1,010,976] 1,153,206] 1,289,930] 1,421,303) 1,547,478] 1,668,602 | 1,784,820 | 1,896,271 |//2,003,094)/")2,105,421)| 2,203,883} 2,297,107 | 2,386,717 - :
15%] 575,619 741,509} 901,230 1,054,954] 1,202,849] 1,345,079] 1,481,803] 1,613,176] 1,739,351 1,860,475 |/)/,976,692)]/"/2,088/144)| 2,194,967 | 2,297,294 2,395,256] 2,488,980 - : :

20%] 767,491] 933,381) 1,093,103] 1,246,827] 1,394,722] 1,536,952 | 1,673,676 | 1,805,049 |/(/,931,224)1/1)2,052,348)| 2,168,565 2,280,017 | 2,386,839 2,489,167 | 2,587,129 - - - -
25%] 959,364] 1,125,254] 1,284,975] 1,438,700] 1,586,595] 1,728,825 | 1,865,548 |//1,996,922)| 2,123,097] 2,244,221) 2,360,438] 2,471,890| 2,578,712| 2,681,040
30%] 1,151,237 | 1,317,127] 1,476,848] 1,630,573] 1,778,468 | 1,920,697 |//2,057,421)| 2,188,795 | 2,314,969} 2,436,094] 2,552,311 2,663,763 2,770,585 -
35%] 1,343,110 | 1,509,000 | 1,668,721 | _ 1,822,445 |/1/,970,341)|/")2,112,570)] 2,249,294] 2,380,668] 2,506,842} 2,627,966 | 2,744,184 2,855,635 - -
40%] 1,534,983 | 1,700,673] 1,800,594 | 2014a18 | 2,162,213] 2,304,443 2,441,167] 2,572,540] 2,698,715] 2,819,839) 2,936,057 -

45%] 1,726,856 | 1,892,746 | 2,052,467] 2,206,191] 2,354,086] 2,496,316 | 2,633,040] 2,764,413 2,890,588] 3,011,712 - - - - -
50%] 1,918,729 | 2,084,619 | _2,244,340] 2,398,064] 2,545,959] 2,688,189 | 2,824,913] 2,956,286 | 3,082,461 - : : : : :

    
  
  

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Variation from Visitor Scenario nee
(@ 50% Occ. Rate eee 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 20% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%
096] 0.0%] “91.4% =83.0%| =75.0%| “67.3%| 59.9%] 52.8%] 45.9%) =39.3%| 33.0%] “27.0% ~21.2%| =15.6%| =10.3%| 5.2%) 0.3%] 44%) 8.9%] 13.1%]
596] =90.0%| “B1.4%| =73.0%| -65.0%| “57.3%| -49.9%| ~42,8%| “35.9% =29.3%| -23,0%| “17.0% =1L.2%| 5.6%] -0.3%| 4.8% 9.7%] 14.4%) 18.9%
10%] -80.0%| -71.4%| -63.0%| -55.0%| -47.3%| -329.9%| -32.8%| -25.9%| -19.3%| -13.0%| -7.0%| -1.2%| 4.4%] 9.7%] 14.8%) 19.7% 24.4%
159%] -70.0%| -61.4%| -53.0%| -45.0%| -37.3%| -29.9%| -22.8%| -15.9%| -9,3%] -3.0%| 3.0%| 8.8%] 14.4%] 19.7% 24.8%) 29.7%
20%| -60.0%| -51.4%| -43,0%| -35.0%| -27.3%| -19.9%| -12.8%| 5.9% 0.7% 7.0% 13.0%| 18.8% 24.4%] 29.7% 34.8%)
25%| -50.0%| -41.4%| -33,0%| -25.0%| -17.3%| -9.9%| -2,8%| 4.1%) 10.7% 17.0% 23.0%| 28.8% 34.4%] 39.7%
30%| -40.0%| -31.4%| -23.0%| -15.0%| -7.3%] 0.1% 7.2%] 14.1%) 20.7% 27.0% 33.0%] 28.8% 44.4%|
° 35%| -30.0%| -21.4%| -13,0%| -5.0%| 2.7%] 10.1% 17.2%) 24.1% 30.7% 37.0% 43.0%| 48.8%
40%| =20.0%| “11.4%| “3.0% 5.0%] 12.7%] 20.1% 27.2% 34.1% 40.7%| 47.0% 53.0%]
45%| -10.0%| -1.4%| 7.0%] 15.0%| 22.7%] 30.1% 37.2% 44.1% 50.7%| 57.0%
50%| 0.0%] 8.6% 17.0% 25.0%| 32.7%] 40.1% 47.2% 54.1% 60.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘Source: Urbis

 

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