Planning_Economic Impact Assessment

                                                                                      Section 6: Economic impact




                                                        Table 6.3
                             Noosa Heads retail liquor trading im pact assessm ent, 2012-2018

                                                         2012       2015      2018     Change (2012-15)   Change (2012-18)
                                                          $M         $M       $M         $M       %         $M          %

       Part 1 : Estim ated retail spending m arket
       Total available expenditure to TA retailers       36.7        38.1     39.0       1.4     3.8%       0.9     2.4%

       Part 2 : Calculation of MTA retail sales (w ith Noosa Heads Bow ls Club re-developm ent)
       Noosa Bow ls Club (liquor)                         0.0        8.1      8.2        8.1
       Other trade area retailers                        36.7        30.1     30.8      -6.6    -18.1%      -5.9   -16.1%
                  Large format stores                    18.4        12.9     13.3      -5.4    -29.7%      -5.1   -27.8%
                   Small format stores                   18.4        17.2     17.6      -1.2     -6.6%      -0.8    -4.3%
       Est. retail sales to TA retailers                 36.7        38.1     39.0       1.4     3.8%       2.3     6.3%

       Part 3 : Calculation of MTA retail sales (w ithout Noosa Heads Bow ls Club re-developm ent)
       Noosa Bow ls Club (liquor)                         0.0        0.0      0.0        0.0       -         -          -
       Other trade area retailers                        36.7        38.1     39.0       1.4     3.8%       0.9     2.4%
                  Large format stores                    20.2        21.0     21.5       0.8     3.8%       0.5     2.4%
                   Small format stores                   16.5        17.2     17.6       0.6     3.8%       0.4     2.4%

       Part 4 : Resultant Average Trading Perform ance ($/per sq.m )
       Proposed Noosa Bow ls Club (liquor)                 0        6,713    6,856                 -         -          -
       Large format stores                              15,304      10,766   11,042                -         -          -
       Small format stores                               7,605      7,106    7,276                 -         -          -


       So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi




     The column headed 2012 shows the current estimated position for trade area
     retailers based on previous market capacity and potential analysis presented in
     Table 5.1 and Table 5.2.


     The column headed 2015 then shows what is expected to eventuate assuming
     that the First Choice development at Noosa Heads were to proceed and to be
     trading in that year. In short, the analysis shows the following:


     • It is estimated that the addition of the First Choice store at Noosa would
       increase the volume of liquor sales drawn by large format liquor retailers from
       the current figure of $18.4 million to $21.0 million, including both the Dan
       Murphy’s and First Choice store.


     • At the same time, it is estimated that there would be a minor impact on the
       small format liquor stores, resulting in a reduction of $1.2 million, from $18.4
       million in 2012 to $17.2 million in 2015.



                                                                             Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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                                                                                      First Choice Assessment               42
                                                                                                          Coles Group