2021-01-18 GC - Item 3 - Attachment 2 - Phase 7 Project Summary Coastal Hazards Adaptation Plan

 Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Adaptation Plan: Project Summary                                    17
 Findings




3        Findings
3.1      Phase 2: Scoping
3.1.1    Setting the Scope
         An assessment of the previous work relevant to the Noosa CHAP was undertaken to set the scope
         for subsequent phases. As a result of this scoping study, the following key parameters were set:

3.1.1.1 Sea Level Rise
         The Noosa CHAP adopted the following sea level rise allowances (relatively mean sea level in 1990):

         • 2040: 0.2 m

         • 2070: 0.5 m

         • 2100: 0.8 m.

         These allowances were based on consideration of the following key studies:

         • IPCC suggest global mean increases to sea level of approximately 0.3 m by 2050 and 0.8 m by
           2100.

         • DOE, CSIRO & BOM suggest regional mean increases to sea level of approximately 0.14 m by
           2030 and 0.65 m by 2090.

         • Analysis of east coast Australia tide gauge data suggests 3 mm/year increase in mean sea level
           (CSIRO/ARE CRC, 2012; Wainwright and Lord, 2014).

         • State planning policy and guidelines recommend 0.8 m by 2100.

3.1.1.2 Storm Tide Hazard
         The Noosa CHAP adopted present-day design water levels reported by Aurecon (2013) which
         incorporate results and recommendations of the NDRP Storm Tide Hazard Interpolation Study (GHD,
         2014). This information will be used in conjunction with sea level rise allowances summarised above.

3.1.1.3 Erosion Prone Areas
         The erosion prone areas determined by the State did not provide sufficient information regarding
         likelihood and consequence to undertake a more detailed risk assessment required by the CHAP. It
         was determined that a further erosion assessment would be required.

3.1.2    Preliminary Risk Screening
         The preliminary risk screening identified the following:

         • Total lots within the State declared Erosion Prone Area = 2,154

         • Total lots within the State Storm Tide Medium Hazard Area = 2,421

         • Total lots within the State Storm Tide High Hazard Area = 213.