Appendix F- Economic Impact Assessment · MCU23/0078

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                            Retail spending

                            Estimates of retail spending propensity by catchment residents are shown in Table 4 for
                            2022, based on information from the MarketInfo spending propensity model, which
                            combines information from various sources including the ABS Household Expenditure
                            Survey, ABS Census and National Accounts.

                            The spending estimates also draw on consumption forecasts prepared by Deloitte
                            Access Economics.

                            As shown in the table, catchment residents generate average retail spending of $16,350
                            per capita in 2022, which is 3% higher than the Queensland average. A much greater
                            variation from the average occurs in the Secondary East sector where average spending
                            by residents on Food dining, for example, is 16% above the State average.

Table 4—Average per capita retail spending (2022)

Spending category                 Primary       Secondary       Secondary        Secondary       Secondary             Total          QLD         Comp. to
                                                     East       South East      South West       North West       catchment                        QLD av.
Food, Groceries & Liquor           $7,024           $7,359           $6,801          $6,964           $6,936              $6,968    $6,712           +3.8%
Food dining                        $1,598           $2,019           $1,636          $1,563           $1,498              $1,641    $1,738            -5.6%
Non-food & Services                $3,008           $3,416           $2,979          $3,086           $2,923              $3,037    $2,950           +3.0%
Large Format Retail                $4,497           $5,151           $4,715          $4,750           $4,625              $4,699    $4,460           +5.4%
Total                             $16,126          $17,945         $16,131          $16,363          $15,983         $16,346       $15,860           +3.1%
Comparison to QLD average
Total                               +1.7%           +13.1%            +1.7%           +3.2%            +0.8%              +3.1%

Source: Deep End Services; ABS; Market Data Systems; Deloitte Access Economics


                            The information in Table 5 combines the spending propensity data, projected forwards
                            using broad consumption forecasts by Deloitte Access Economics and analysis by Deep
                            End Services, and population projections presented previously in Table 3, to calculate the
                            total spending capacity by catchment residents on retail goods and services over the
                            period 2016 to 2030.

                            The analysis shows that total retail spending by all catchment residents is predicted to
                            increase from $1.56bn in 2022 to $1.91bn in 2027, then reach $2.13bn in 2030. By 2035
                            total retail spending is projected to be $2.53bn.

                            These are clearly very significant increases in spending capacity, totalling an additional
                            $572m in annual spending between 2022 and 2030 (noting that the figures are presented
                            in future dollars and exclude the effects of inflation). The additional spending capacity
                            will support new retail developments while also underpinning improvements in retail
                            performance for existing businesses.
                            Retail spending within the Primary sector is forecast to increase from $384.2m in 2022 to
                            $464.4m in 2027 (ie +$80m), then increasing to reach $518.2m in 2030.

                            Of importance to the planned supermarket at Noosa Civic Village is the growth in
                            spending on Food, Groceries and Liquor (FLG), which is forecast to increase from
                            $664.3m in 2022 to $807.8m over the four years to 2027 (+$144m) and then reach $885m
                            in 2030 (+$220m from 2022 levels).



                            Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application                      Deep End Services