15. APP J. Economic Needs Report

    •    Non-residential retail demand generators have been excluded from the analysis as these are difficult to
         estimate to high levels of confidence.
These assumptions provide an extremely conservative estimate of future potential expenditure, as it is possible
that (a) population growth in the Trade Area will achieve rates closer to the high series forecasts (as opposed to
the medium series assumed below); (b) retail expenditure can reasonably be expected to experience real growth
of up to 1.1% per year; and (c) non-residential retail demand generators are likely to contribute somewhere
between 3% and 5% extra to the total retail demand expenditure pool.
As such, if on the basis of these conservative parameters there is demonstrable demand for additional retailing
floorspace, then in all probability the estimated demand will err on the conservative side of the assessment and
there is likely to be demand for more floorspace than estimated below.


6.3.2 EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
The food and consumables market comprises spending on all key retail segments that are normally stocked in
supermarkets. This includes fresh food and dry groceries, and to a lesser extent, some non-food items or general
merchandise. In Australia, approximately 75-80% of groceries and related expenditure is captured by major
supermarkets; the remainder is distributed through lower order retail centres and standalone stores.
The potential expenditure at the proposed service station convenience store is determined in large part by the
total available spending within the trade area that the stores supply. For the total trade area, the total
expenditure market for each of the categories is shown at Table 5.


TABLE 5:             ESTIMATE OF FUTURE EXPENDITURE (RESIDENTIAL)

                                   2011             2016             2021         2026            2031

 SUPERMARKET                $40,187,637      $46,134,430      $52,879,092   $58,960,214     $64,460,936

 TAKEAWAY FOOD               $7,355,753        $8,444,225      $9,678,736   $10,791,795     $11,798,621

 NEWSAGENT                   $2,138,458        $2,454,898      $2,813,794    $3,137,381      $3,430,085

 CAFE'S &
 RESTAURANTS                 $6,180,279        $7,094,810      $8,132,042    $9,067,231      $9,913,162

 FUEL                       $13,074,884      $15,009,649      $17,203,998   $19,182,466     $20,972,104




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