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9. Appendix F - Economic Impact Assessment
NOOSA MARKETPLACE,
QUEENSLAND
Economic Impact Assessment
Prepared for Blueprint Australia
May 2019
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 0
May 2019
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CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
LOCATION AND COMPOSITION 6
1.1. Regional and Local Context 6
1.2. Planning Context 10
Noosa Plan 2006 10
Noosa Centres Hierarchy Review 2017 13
Draft New Noosa Plan 2019 15
1.3. Proposed Development 19
TRADE AREA ANALYSIS 22
2.1. Resident Trade Area Definition 22
2.2. Resident Trade Area Population 25
2.3. Resident Socio-Economic Profile 28
2.4. Resident Total Trade Area Retail Expenditure Capacity 31
2.5. Other Customer Segments 38
Tourists 38
Trade Supplies 39
COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT 40
3.1. Large Format Retail and Non-Retail Showroom Facilities 40
Noosa Civic Precinct 41
Noosa Homemaker Centre Precinct (Noosaville) 42
3.2. Traditional Retail Centres 50
3.3. Proposed Developments 53
3.4. Summary 54
ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL 55
4.1. Floorspace Supply and Demand 55
Floorspace Demand 55
Land Supply 57
4.2. Sales Overview and Impacts 61
4.3. Employment and Consumer Impacts 64
NEEDS ANALYSIS 67
5.1. Population Growth 67
5.2. Large Format Retail Trends 68
5.3. Location 69
5.4. Sales Impacts 70
5.5. Net Community Benefits 71
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INTRODUCTION
This report presents an independent assessment of the need and demand for proposed Noosa
Marketplace development at Noosa on the Sunshine Coast of Queensland. The report also considers
the likely economic impacts that would result from the proposed development. The proposal is referred
to as the Noosa Marketplace throughout the remainder of this report, which has been commissioned by
Blueprint Australia.
This report is structure and presented in five (5) sections as follows:
Section 1 reviews the location of the Noosa Marketplace site and discusses the context of the
site within the wider Noosa area. A summary of the proposed development scheme is also
provided.
Section 2 details the customer segments which are likely to be served by the Noosa Marketplace,
including projected population levels and spending levels, over the period to 2031.
Section 3 provides an overview of large format retail and non-retail showroom facilities within
the surrounding region.
Section 4 outlines our assessment of the sales potential for the proposed Noosa Marketplace
and then presents an economic impact assessment. Likely trading impacts on other retailers
throughout the surrounding region are considered, as are the employment and other economic
impacts, both positive and negative, of the proposal.
Section 5 outlines the key findings of the analysis.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key points to note regarding this independent retail needs assessment for the proposed Noosa
Marketplace site, include:
Background
The proposed Noosa Marketplace site comprises a total of 12,780 sq.m of gross lettable area (including
8,780 sq.m of large format retail/non-retail showroom and 1,800 sq.m of business/retail incubator
floorspace), served by a provision of at-grade car parking which would be provided at the centre of the
site. The development would offer a high degree of customer amenity and convenience by way of its
high-profile site, easily accessible location and simple design.
The key economic issues of the proposed development are in relation to:
‒ The suitability of the site in accommodating predominantly large format retail and non-retail
(e.g. trade and wholesale) showrooms;
‒ The effect that the proposed development would have on existing centres;
‒ The demonstrated economic need for the proposal in terms of fulfilling current and future
demand;
‒ The significant employment opportunities (both immediate and ongoing) for the community;
‒ Consolidation of large format retail and non-retail showrooms;
‒ The limited impact of the proposed development on existing retailers within the region.
Suitability of Proposed Uses (vs intended)
The Noosa resident total trade area population is projected to increase from around 137,140 in 2018 to
155,340 by 2031. In Australia, there is around 2.3 sq.m of retail floorspace provided for every resident.
Of this 2.3 sq.m, approximately 30% is estimated to be large format retail floorspace, or some 0.6 – 0.7
sq.m of large format retail floorspace per person. In addition, non-retail showroom facilities such as
trade and wholesale showrooms and the like are estimated to make up around 0.3 sq.m per person.
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If large format retail and non-retail showroom floorspace demand is assumed at around at 1 sq.m per
person, this would lead to an overall demand for large format retail floorspace of 155,340 sq.m by 2031,
an increase of 17,600 sq.m on the current level of demand, or around 61,000 sq.m above the existing
provision of floorspace across the total trade area.
Intended Uses
The Noosa Marketplace development will comprise a total of 8,780 sq.m of large format retail and/or
showroom floorspace. There are limited available and appropriately zoned sites within the region with
the site attributes typically required by large format retailers (e.g. high-profile location with excellent
accessibility, large enough to accommodate a critical mass of tenants to create destinational appeal
etc.). As such, the subject site represents an ideal location for a large format retail/showroom centre to
address to existing undersupply of such facilities within the region. Further, the subject site is a natural
extension of the existing Noosa Civic retail precinct.
The Noosa Business Centre site encompasses 40.1 hectares of land, of which approximately 66%
(including the subject site) is currently vacant or undeveloped. As such, other employment-type uses
which do not require sites in high profile locations could potentially be accommodated elsewhere within
the site to allow for the development of large format retail and showroom uses at the subject site.
Impact on Existing Centres
The proposed development is projected to achieve sales of approximately $3,500 per sq.m in 2021
(constant 2018 dollars and including GST), or around $30.7 million. Based on this trading level, the
average impact on surrounding large format retail stores would be in the order of 6.5%, and, therefore,
would not affect the viability or continued operation of any store. It is unlikely that the development
would impact surrounding facilities to the degree outlined above given it would likely comprise new
traders to the locality and as such, would not provide a direct replication of any existing tenant or facility
within the immediate region.
Consequently, any impact on surrounding facilities would be minimal and additional spending directed
to facilities at the site will likely be retained spending, currently escaping the trade area. The proposed
development would also serve to strengthen Noosa as a large format retail and non-retail showroom
destination and would not impact on the role served by major facilities such as Noosa Civic or other
centres in Noosa Shire such as Noosa Junction.
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Impact on Future Large Format Retail
Given the current mix of tenants within the total trade area, there is an opportunity for many key large
format retail and non-retail showroom tenants which are not yet represented within the total trade area
(or primary sector) to locate at the subject site and service local residents. Tenants which are not
currently represented within the main trade area would be targeted and as such, sales generated by
these tenants would largely result from retained spending within the main trade area (i.e. a re-direction
of sales from beyond the region).
There are no significant competitive developments currently planned within the total trade area which
are likely to impact the viability of the proposed Noosa Marketplace. Further, there is a lack of vacant
or high-profile land which would appeal to prospective large format retail and non-retail showroom
tenants. Existing vacant Industry-zoned land is largely located in backstreet, internalised locations,
while the subject site is a high-profile site, representing a natural extension of the Noosa Civic retail
precinct.
Economic Need
It is the conclusion of this report that a substantial net community benefit will result from the Noosa
Marketplace development. Offsetting the trading impacts on some existing facilities, there are very
substantial positive impacts including additional choice and competition, fulfilling existing demand for
large format retail floorspace attaining escaped expenditure, and the creation of immediate and ongoing
employment opportunities within the region.
Overall, the proposed development will not adversely affect the role and function of the Noosa Business
Centre or any other designated centres within the region. It is concluded that the combination of the
substantial positive economic impacts serves to more than offset the trading impacts that could be
anticipated for a small number of the existing stores in the region. Further, the impacts would not
threaten the viability of any of these traders or showrooms.
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LOCATION AND COMPOSITION
This section of the report reviews the regional and local context of the proposed Noosa Marketplace
site, including an overview of the proposed development and planning context.
1.1. Regional and Local Context
i. Noosa is located on the Sunshine Coast of Queensland, approximately 35 km to the north of
Maroochydore and 140 km to the north of the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) (refer
Map 1.1). Noosa is a major residential and tourist area in the northern region of the Sunshine
Coast.
ii. The Sunshine Coast of Queensland generally extends from Noosa in the north to Caloundra in
the south. In total, the region covers approximately 462 sq.km with an established resident
population of over 350,000.
iii. The Sunshine Coast is also a popular tourist destination for day trippers, domestic overnight
tourists and international tourists. The Sunshine Coast recorded some 10 million visitors in
2017.
iv. Map 1.2 illustrates the local context of the proposed Noosa Marketplace. The site is 2.58
hectares in size and is bounded by Eenie Creek Road to the north, Noosa Civic Shopping
Centre to the east and the industrial precinct in the west.
v. The subject site is easily accessible with Hoffman Drive and Eenie Creek Road connecting to
Walter Hay Drive in the east, providing access to the Sunshine Motorway. In addition, Eumundi-
Noosa Road is a major inland traffic route providing access to Noosa from the west.
vi. The site is located adjacent to Noosa Civic Shopping Centre which provides some 21,442 sq.m
of retail floorspace and is anchored by a Big W discount department store, Woolworths
supermarket and specialty stores. Noosa Civic Emporium (10,000 sq.m) is a large format retail
centre provided immediately east of Noosa Civic.
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vii. Other key points to note regarding the local context of the centre include:
The proposed Noosa Marketplace site forms part of the wider Noosa Business Centre
precinct which comprises a mix of uses. The precinct is located within the key
industrial/retail area of Noosaville.
Significant national parklands are provided to the east and south of the centre.
The Noosa Domain Retirement village is located on the northern side of Eenie Creek Road.
viii. Overall, the proposed Noosa site enjoys a high-profile location within the Noosa Business
Centre precinct and is a natural extension of the existing Noosa Civic retail precinct.
ix. The proposed development will also be well located to serve the Noosa urban area given the
critical mass of retail, large format and industrial uses throughout the precinct. Accessibility to
the site is excellent, reflecting convenient access from Eenie Creek Road.
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MAP 1.1. NOOSA REGIONAL CONTEXT
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MAP 1.2. – NOOSA MARKETPLACE SITE LOCAL CONTEXT
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1.2. Planning Context
Noosa Plan 2006
i. The Noosa Plan (2006) outlines the following Desired Environmental Outcomes for commercial and
retail uses as:
“A hierarchy of centres with a range of Commercial and Retail business uses provide suitable levels of
amenity, service and access to the community, consistent with the community’s location and needs and
is based on:
A proportion of Noosa’s higher order needs fulfilled by centres in other areas, particularly the
key regional centre of Maroochydore;
The Shire Business Centre, a Major Activity Centre for the purposes of the SEQ Regional Plan
and the highest order centre within the former Noosa Shire, developed in stages consistent with
the needs of the population of the former Noosa Shire and areas to the immediate south;
Protecting the long-term viability of the Shire Business Centre as the principal business, retail
and administrative centre;
Recognising that it may be necessary to increase floorspace in existing centres to meet
changing needs, provided any increased floor space does not impact on the successful
operation and development of the Shire Business Centre;
Business centres at Cooroy, Noosa Junction, Noosaville and Tewantin;
Neighbourhood or visitor centres at Peregian Beach, Sunrise Beach, Sunshine Beach, Noosa
Heads, Noosaville, Tewantin, Cooroibah and Teewah; the town of Pomona and the village
centres of Kin Kin, Boreen Point and Cooran;
Uses that comprise a large component of Commercial and Retail business uses, or other non-
industrial uses are not located on land that is otherwise intended for Industrial business uses;
ii. Map 1.3 and Table 1.1 illustrate the Noosa Shire centre hierarchy under the current planning scheme
classified under the Shire Business Centre, Business Centres, Neighbourhood Centres, Village Centres
and Visitor Centres.
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TABLE 1.1 - NOOSA SHIRE CURRENT CENTRES HIERARCHY
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MAP 1.3 – NOOSA SHIRE CURRENT CENTRES HIERARCHY
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Noosa Centres Hierarchy Review 2017
i. The Noosa Centres Hierarchy Review 2017 was undertaken to inform and shape planning policy of the
New Noosa Plan 2019.
ii. The Review recommends a revised hierarchy of centres with zones based on the Queensland Planning
Regulations 2017 and strategic options around the role and function for each centre and land use
opportunities.
iii. The hierarchy takes into consideration the following.
‒ The role and function of each centre in the overall centres network;
‒ Enhancing the individual character and sense of place for each centre;
‒ The need for viable and sustainable mixed-use development where appropriate;
‒ Catering for future economic opportunities in health, creative and knowledge-based industries,
digital economy, environmental industries, professional services, tourism, education and
training and emerging rural enterprise to diversify our economy; and
‒ Consideration of access to efficient transport networks and opportunities and in the longer-term
future innovations in technology.
iv. The Noosa Centres Hierarchy Review 2017 report states that:
“The current centres hierarchy for Noosa is a traditional retail based hierarchy. Whilst this has
served Noosa well in the past, there are improvements that can be made to ensure that the
current and future activity centre trends are captured in a way that maximises success for each
centre and incorporates economic development, social and environmental outcomes whilst still
keeping within the Noosa brand”.
v. Figure 1.1 outlines the proposed Noosa Centres Hierarchy for the Noosa Shire. As shown, the Noosa
Business Centre and Noosa Junction are designated as ‘Major Activity Centres’ which are defined as
providing a mix of uses and activities. These include; concentrations of higher order retail, commercial,
offices, residential, administrative and health services, community, cultural and entertainment facilities
and other uses capable of servicing a sub-region in the planning scheme area.
vi. Section 2 of the report acknowledges that there is “increasing pressure for out-of-centre developments
including bulky goods centres” and that “there is likely to be more pressure for additional bulky goods
premises” in the Noosa Shire.
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FIGURE 1.1. PROPOSED CENTRES HIERARCHY FOR NOOSA SHIRE
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Draft New Noosa Plan 2019
i. The Draft New Noosa Plan 2019 is the draft planning scheme proposed to replace the current Noosa
Plan 2006. Key points to note in relation to the Plan include:
‒ The Draft New Noosa Plan 2019 differs from the current Noosa Plan 2006 in terms of changes
to the structure, zones and land use definitions.
‒ The Draft New Noosa Plan 2019 has been prepared in accordance with the requirements of the
Planning Act 2016 and is currently undergoing a period of community consultation (between
February – May 2019).
‒ The purpose of the new plan is to shape the growth of Noosa Shire over the next 20 years and
to set the rules for development including new or changing land uses, subdivision, building
works, landscaping etc.
ii. Figure 1.2 illustrates the zoning for the surrounding area, based on the New Noosa Plan 2019, with key
points to note including:
‒ The subject site is located within (but on the periphery of) the Noosa Business Centre zoned
area. As illustrated in Figure 1.3, the Noosa Business Centre Map further divides this land into
precincts with differing preferred uses.
‒ The majority of land to the immediate north and west of the site is Industry- zoned. This area
does not benefit from main road exposure and would generally be considered less desirable for
large format retail uses.
‒ A small Business Centre zoned precinct (Mary and Thomas Street) is located approximately 2
km north-east of the site, which accommodates Noosa Homemaker Centre.
iii. Based on the New Noosa Plan 2019, the Noosa Business Centre is designated as a ‘Major Centre’, the
function of which is to provide for a range of business activities that serve the highest level needs of
businesses, residents and visitors within the Shire, and offers a higher level and more diverse range of
employment opportunities than other centres in Noosa Shire. This zoning allows the following uses:
‒ Retail shops and food and drink outlets (e.g. local restaurant and dining facilities);
‒ Health care services;
‒ Offices (e.g. banks and real estate agencies);
‒ Entertainment activities (e.g. a club, function facility or theatre);
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‒ Residential activities located above or behind non-residential activities; and
‒ An appropriate range of community activities and support service.
iv. Figure 1.3 also illustrates with zoning of various precincts within the Noosa Business Centre, based on
the Draft Plan. Key points to note are as follows:
‒ 5A Small-Scale Business Precinct: The Noosa Marketplace site is located within this precinct.
Permitted business activities include; food and drink outlet, service industry uses, offices, shops
and veterinary services provided that the gross floor area of any tenancy does not exceed 150
sq.m;
‒ 5B Business Park Precinct: on the eastern, southern and western edges of the Noosa
Business Centre. Currently, only the western edge of the precinct has been developed;
‒ 5C Showroom Precinct: comprising the Noosa Civic Emporium precinct. Permitted uses
include; garden centre, hardware and trade supplies if the gross floor area is larger than 400
sq.m. The total retail showroom floorspace in the precinct is limited to 7,700 sq.m.
‒ 5D Retail Precinct: comprising the Noosa Civic shopping centre precinct. Retail floorspace in
this precinct is limited to 24,000 sq.m;
‒ 5E Village Mixed-Use Precinct: located on the eastern edge of the Noosa Business Centre,
adjacent to Walter Hay Drive and is yet to be developed;
‒ 5F High Density Residential Precinct: located on the eastern edge of the Noosa Business
Centre, adjacent to Walter Hay Drive (south of the 5E Village Mixed-Use precinct) and is also
yet to be developed.
v. It is noted that the Noosa Civic Emporium precinct is already at capacity in terms of the floorspace cap.
Given that large format uses are only permitted under the 5C zoning, there is currently no other
appropriately zone land within the Noosa Business Centre which can be developed for these uses.
vi. The proposed development would reinforce the role of the new set business Centre is a major activity
centre within the centres hierarchy. The proposed development would not adversely affect the role and
function of other designated centres within the region. Further commentary on the suitability of uses is
included in the Town Planning report accompanying this application.
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FIGURE 1.2. NOOSAVILLE ZONING MAP
Subject Site
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FIGURE 1.3. NEW NOOSA PLAN 2019 BUSINESS USES AND USE CLASSES
Subject Site
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1.3. Proposed Development
i. Figure 1.4 and Table 1.2 detail the draft composition of the Noosa Marketplace site, which includes:
‒ Ten large format retail/non-retail showrooms across a total combined gross lettable area (GLA)
of 8,780 sq.m;
‒ 11 business incubator tenancies across 1,800 sq.m;
‒ An indoor kids play centre of 730 sq.m;
‒ A co-working office facility of 1,200 sq.m fronting onto Hoffman Drive over three upper levels;
‒ Two food and beverage tenancies across 270 sq.m in a PAD in the car park.
ii. A large at-grade car park would be provided at the centre of the site, with convenient ingress and egress
via Hoffman Drive in the east. Indicatively, the Noosa Marketplace development is planned to
encompass some 12,780 sq.m of GLA in total.
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TABLE 1.2. PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULE
Tenancy Use GLA
(Sq.m)
T01 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 2,800
T02 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 1,800
T03 Kids Play Centre 730
T04 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 580
T05 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T06 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T07 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T08 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T09 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T10 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T11 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T12 Business / Retail Incubator 150
T13 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 500
T14 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 350
T15 Business / Retail Incubator 200
T16 Business / Retail Incubator 200
T17 Business / Retail Incubator 200
T18 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 500
T19 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 500
T20 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 500
T21 Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 500
T22 (Ground) Large Format Retail/Non-Retail Showroom 750
T22 (Upper Levels) Co-Working Office Facility 1,200
T23 Food & Beverage 120
T24 Food & Beverage 150
Total 12,780
Source: Blueprint Australia
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FIGURE 1.4. NOOSA MARKETPLACE PLAN Noosa Marketplace, Queensland Economic Impact Assessment 21 May 2019
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TRADE AREA ANALYSIS
This section of the report provides a review of the customer segments which are likely to be served by Noosa
Marketplace, namely; residents, tourists and trade supplies.
2.1. Resident Trade Area Definition
i. The trade area for the proposed Noosa Marketplace has been defined considering the following.
The scale and composition of the development.
The provision of existing and proposed competitive facilities throughout the region.
Regional and local accessibility
The pattern of urban development
Significant physical barriers such as rivers and major roads.
ii. Map 2.1 illustrates the defined resident trade area to be served by the Noosa site. The trade area has
been defined to include one primary sector, one secondary sector and one tertiary sector as follows:
The primary sector extends approximately 30 km to the north and west of the site and some
10 km to the south, encompassing the surrounding towns of Noosa, Peregian Beach, Coolum,
Pomona, Cooroy and Eumundi.
The secondary sector is defined to incorporate Coolum Beach, Point Arkwright, Mount Coolum
and Marcoola. This sector extends some 15 km to the south of Noosa.
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iii. The combination of the primary and secondary south sectors is referred to as the Noosa Marketplace
main trade area throughout the remainder of this report.
iv. Additionally, given the regional draw of Noosa, a tertiary sector has also been defined to extend
inland by 60 km to the north-west and includes the town of Gympie and surrounds.
v. The combination of the main trade area (MTA) and the tertiary sector is referred to as the Noosa
Marketplace total trade area (TTA) throughout the remainder of this report. The Noosa total trade area
generally extends around 30 km to the north, 8 km to the east, 20 km to the south and 60 km to the
west of the proposed site. This is the area from which the proposed Noosa Marketplace would attract
the majority of its customers.
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MAP 2.1. NOOSA MARKETPLACE TOTAL TRADE AREA
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2.2. Resident Trade Area Population
i. Table 2.1 details the main trade area current and projected population by sector. This information is
sourced from the following:
The 2011 and 2016 Census of Population and Housing undertaken by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS).
New dwelling approvals statistics from the ABS from 2011/12 to 2017/18 (refer Chart 2.1). An
average of 844 new dwellings were approved annually throughout the total trade area over this
time, with more than 55% of all new dwellings located within the primary sector (an average of
472 new dwellings per annum).
Population projections prepared by the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO)
in 2018.
Investigations by this office into new residential developments in the area.
ii. The total trade area population is currently estimated at 137,740 (2018), including 71,090 persons
within the primary sector. The total trade area population is projected to increase to 155,340 persons
by 2031. This represents an average annual growth rate of approximately 0.9%, or over 1,500 persons
per annum over the forecast period of 2018 – 2031.
iii. The total trade area is projected to increase by 17,600 persons over the forecast period. To
accommodate the substantial increase in population, a large number of new dwellings would need to
be developed. Assuming a dwelling per household ratio of 2.4, as at the 2016 Census, this would
entail further demand for approximately 7,300 dwellings. This dwelling demand would generate
demand for large format retail and non-retail showrooms as homes are furnished.
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iv. Key residential developments currently proposed or under construction within the primary sector are
described as follows:
Peregian Springs is a master planned community, with development of the suburb underway
since 2002. Residential development in Peregian Springs is driven by the following estates:
Ridges Peregian Springs, developed by FKP, is the largest residential development in the
region. Discussions with the developer indicate that the estate will ultimately comprise 3,000
lots, with only 100 lots still to be developed over the next 12 months.
Peregian Breeze is an additional development located to the north of Ridges Peregian
Springs, comprising 400 residential lots. Stage 8 (the final stage) of the development,
comprising approximately 60 lots was recently released.
Doonella by QM Properties in Noosaville has been under construction since 2007. The majority
of the 247-lot estate is now complete.
Settlers Cove Resort at Noosa Heads is planned to ultimately comprise 109 luxury apartments.
Discussions with the developer indicate that Stage 4 (22 units) is currently under construction.
Stage 5 (the final stage) comprising 15 units has received development approval and
construction is likely to commence post 2021.
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TABLE 2.1. NOOSA MARKETPLACE TTA POPULATION, 2011 – 2031
Actual Forecast
Population 2011 2016 2018 2021 2026 2031
Primary Sector 61,480 69,090 71,090 73,790 77,540 80,540
Secondary Sector 22,490 24,720 25,520 26,720 28,220 28,970
Main Trade Area 83,970 93,810 96,610 100,510 105,760 109,510
Tertiary Sector 36,950 40,130 41,130 42,330 44,080 45,830
Total Trade Area 120,920 133,940 137,740 142,840 149,840 155,340
Actual Forecast
Average Annual Change (No.) 2011-16 2016-18 2018-21 2021-26 2026-31
Primary Sector 1,522 1,000 900 750 600
Secondary Sector 446 400 400 300 150
Main Trade Area 1,968 1,400 1,300 1,050 750
Tertiary Sector 636 500 400 350 350
Total Trade Area 2,604 1,900 1,700 1,400 1,100
Actual Forecast
Average Annual Change (%) 2011-16 2016-18 2018-21 2021-26 2026-31
Primary Sector 2.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8%
Secondary Sector 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5%
Main Trade Area 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7%
Tertiary Sector 1.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8%
Total Trade Area 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7%
SE QLD 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%
Australian Average 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3%
Sources : ABS; QLD QGSO
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CHART 2.1. TOTAL TRADE AREA NEW DWELLING APPROVALS, 2011/12 – 2017/18
1400
Other Dwellings
1200
1200 New Houses
1045
971
1000
795
749
800
641
600 512
400
200
0
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Source: ABS
2.3. Resident Socio-Economic Profile
i. Table 2.2 summarises the socio-economic profile of the total trade area population compared with the
South-East Queensland and Australian benchmarks. This information is based on the 2016 Census
of Population and Housing, with key points to note including:
The average age of total trade area residents at 42.2 years is older than the benchmark of 37.7
years. The primary sector population contains the oldest residents with an average of 42 years,
well above the South-East Queensland benchmark. This reflects the popularity of Noosa and the
surrounding region with retirees.
Total trade area residents earn average per capita and household incomes which are lower than
the South-East Queensland benchmarks. This is particularly evident in the tertiary sector.
The total trade area population is predominantly Australian born, with this trend evident across
all sectors.
A review of the household structure of the total trade area population indicates an above average
proportion of couples without children and lone persons.
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 28
May 2019
Page 30
ii. The total trade area population generally reflects that of a coastal region on the outskirts of a major
metropolitan area and is characterised by an older, Australian born population who own their own
homes and are more likely to be couples without dependent children. This is reflective of a retiree
population who would have a greater reliance on accumulated wealth than disposable incomes.
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 29
May 2019
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TABLE 2.2. TOTAL TRADE AREA SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE, 2016 CENSUS
Primary Secondary Main Tertiary Total SE QLD Aust
Characteristics Sector Sector TA Sector TA Average Average
Income Levels
Average Per Capita Income $35,750 $35,474 $35,677 $28,758 $33,606 $38,197 $38,497
Per Capita Income Variation -6.4% -7.1% -6.6% -24.7% -12.0% n.a. n.a.
Average Household Income $86,868 $88,041 $87,174 $70,111 $82,058 $98,799 $98,478
Household Income Variation -12.1% -10.9% -11.8% -29.0% -16.9% n.a. n.a.
Average Household Size 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6
Age Distribution (% of Pop'n)
Aged 0-14 18.0% 19.1% 18.3% 19.3% 18.6% 19.3% 18.8%
Aged 15-19 5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 6.0% 5.7% 6.3% 6.1%
Aged 20-29 6.8% 9.4% 7.5% 9.4% 8.1% 14.2% 13.8%
Aged 30-39 9.6% 12.2% 10.3% 10.1% 10.2% 13.9% 14.0%
Aged 40-49 14.7% 15.8% 15.0% 12.8% 14.3% 14.0% 13.5%
Aged 50-59 15.3% 14.9% 15.2% 15.1% 15.2% 12.4% 12.7%
Aged 60+ 30.0% 23.0% 28.2% 27.1% 27.9% 19.9% 21.1%
Average Age 43.4 40.1 42.6 41.5 42.2 37.7 38.5
Housing Status (% of H'holds)
Owner/Purchaser 73.4% 68.5% 72.1% 72.0% 72.1% 64.7% 68.0%
Renter 26.6% 31.5% 27.9% 28.0% 27.9% 35.3% 32.0%
Birthplace (% of Pop'n)
Australian Born 77.7% 83.8% 79.3% 90.1% 82.5% 73.7% 72.9%
Overseas Born 22.3% 16.2% 20.7% 9.9% 17.5% 26.3% 27.1%
• Asia 1.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 7.5% 10.7%
• Europe 11.7% 7.8% 10.7% 4.9% 8.9% 7.2% 8.0%
• Other 9.3% 7.5% 8.8% 4.1% 7.4% 11.6% 8.4%
Family Type (% of Pop'n)
Couple with dep't children 39.9% 42.8% 40.7% 37.5% 39.7% 45.3% 45.2%
Couple with non-dep't child. 6.7% 7.1% 6.8% 7.4% 7.0% 7.3% 7.8%
Couple without children 30.9% 26.9% 29.8% 27.2% 29.1% 23.7% 23.0%
Single with dep't child. 8.8% 9.1% 8.9% 11.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.9%
Single with non-dep't child. 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7%
Other family 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1%
Lone person 9.9% 10.0% 9.9% 11.5% 10.4% 9.3% 10.2%
Sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2016
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 30
May 2019
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TABLE 2.2. TOTAL TRADE AREA SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE, 2016 CENSUS
Characteristics
Income Levels
Average Per Capita Income
Per Capita Income Variation
Average Household Income
Household Income Variation
Average Household Size
Age Distribution (% of Pop'n)
Aged 0-14
Aged 15-19
Aged 20-29
Aged 30-39
Aged 40-49
Aged 50-59
Aged 60+
Average Age
Housing Status (% of H'holds)
Owner/Purchaser
Renter
Birthplace (% of Pop'n)
Australian Born
Overseas Born
- Asia
+ Europe
+ Other
Family Type (% of Pop'n)
Couple with dep't children
Couple with non-dep't child.
Couple without children
Single with dep't child.
Single with non-dep't child.
Other family
Lone person
Primary Secondary
Sector
$35,750
6.4%
$86,868
12.1%
24
18.0%
5.6%
6.8%
9.6%
14.7%
15.3%
30.0%
43.4
73.4%
26.6%
77.7%
22.3%
1.3%
11.7%
9.3%
39.9%
6.7%
30.9%
8.8%
3.3%
0.5%
9.9%
Sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2016
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment
May 2019
Sector
$35,474
-7.1%
$88,041
-10.9%
25
19.1%
5.5%
9.4%
12.2%
15.8%
14.9%
23.0%
40.1
68.5%
31.5%
83.8%
16.2%
0.9%
7.8%
7.5%
42.8%
7.1%
26.9%
9.1%
3.2%
0.9%
10.0%
Main
TA
$35,677
6.6%
$87,174
-11.8%
24
18.3%
5.6%
7.5%
10.3%
15.0%
15.2%
28.2%
42.6
72.1%
27.9%
79.3%
20.7%
1.2%
10.7%
8.8%
40.7%
6.8%
29.8%
8.9%
3.3%
0.6%
9.9%
Tertiary
Sector
$28,758
-24.7%
$70,111
-29.0%
2.4
19.3%
6.0%
9.4%
10.1%
12.8%
15.1%
27.1%
41.5
72.0%
28.0%
90.1%
9.9%
1.0%
4.9%
41%
37.5%
74%
27.2%
11.6%
41%
0.7%
11.5%
Total
TA
$33,606
-12.0%
$82,058
-16.9%
24
18.6%
5.7%
8.1%
10.2%
14.3%
15.2%
27.9%
42.2
72.1%
27.9%
82.5%
17.5%
1.1%
8.9%
TAY
39.7%
7.0%
29.1%
9.7%
3.5%
0.6%
10.4%
SE QLD
Average
$38,197
n.a.
$98,799
n.a.
2.6
19.3%
6.3%
14.2%
13.9%
14.0%
12.4%
19.9%
37.7
64.7%
35.3%
73.7%
26.3%
7.5%
7.2%
11.6%
45.3%
7.3%
23.7%
9.6%
3.7%
1.1%
9.3%
Aust
Average
$38,497
n.a.
$98,478
n.a.
26
18.8%
6.1%
13.8%
14.0%
13.5%
12.7%
21.1%
38.5
68.0%
32.0%
72.9%
27.1%
10.7%
8.0%
8.4%
45.2%
7.8%
23.0%
8.9%
3.7%
1.1%
10.2%
30
Page 32
TABLE 2.3. MAIN TRADE AREA SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGES, 2011-16
Noosa Showrooms MTA SE QLD Benchmark
Characteristics 2011 2016 Change (%) 2011 2016 Change (%)
Income Levels
Average Per Capita Income $30,088 $35,677 18.6% $34,096 $38,197 12.0%
Average Household Income $73,788 $87,174 18.1% $88,560 $98,799 11.6%
Age
Average Age 40.9 42.6 4.0% 37.0 37.7 1.9%
Birthplace (% of Pop'n)
Australian Born 78.2% 79.3% 1.2% 73.9% 73.7% -0.2%
Overseas Born 21.8% 20.7% -1.2% 26.1% 26.3% 0.2%
Household Size & Structure
Average Household Size 2.5 2.4 -0.4% 2.6 2.6 -0.4%
Couple with dep't children 41.4% 40.7% -0.8% 45.5% 45.3% -0.2%
Housing Status (% of H'holds)
Owner/Purchaser 69.7% 72.1% 2.4% 65.9% 64.7% -1.2%
Renter 30.3% 27.9% -2.4% 34.1% 35.3% 1.2%
Sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2011 & 2016
2.4. Resident Total Trade Area Retail Expenditure Capacity
i. The estimated retail expenditure capacity of the Noosa total trade area population is based on
information sourced from Market Data Systems (MDS). MDS utilises a detailed micro-simulation model
of household expenditure behaviour for all residents of Australia. All retail spending projections in this
report are in constant 2018 dollars and include GST.
ii. The MDS model takes into account information from a wide variety of sources, including the regular
ABS Household Expenditure Survey, the National Accounts Data, Census Data and other information.
MarketInfo estimates used in this analysis are based on the 2018 release, benchmarked against the
latest National Accounts Data, released by the ABS. Throughout Australia, the MarketInfo estimates of
retail spending that are prepared independently by MDS are commonly used by all parties in economic
assessments.
iii. Charts 2.2 illustrates the traditional retail spending levels per person across the Noosa total trade area
as compared with the South-east Queensland benchmark.
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 31
May 2019
Page 33
iv. Table 2.4 details the traditional retail expenditure levels generated by the Noosa total trade area
population. Total trade area retail spending is currently estimated at $1.9 billion and is projected to
increase to $2.4 billion by 2031 at a rate of 1.7% per annum (constant 2018 dollars and including GST).
v. The projected growth rate in retail spending of 1.7% per annum for the Noosa main trade area takes
into account the following:
Real growth in retail spending per capita of 0.5% annually for food retail and 1.0% for non-food retail.
Total trade area population growth of 0.9%.
vi. Table 2.5 details the total trade area retail expenditure generated by key commodity group, with Table
2.6 outlining large format retail expenditure levels generated by the Noosa total trade area population.
vii. The large format retail spending market includes the majority of household goods traders (with the
exception of glassware/tableware and home decoration), as well as sporting goods and auto
accessories and also incorporates the majority of expenditure directed to large format retailers and
showrooms throughout the region. Examples of such spending include:
‒ Lighting ‒ Hardware
‒ Flooring and tiles ‒ Electrical goods
‒ Kitchen appliances and whitegoods ‒ Sporting goods
‒ Bathrooms and accessories ‒ Auto accessories
‒ Curtains and blinds ‒ Toys
viii. The total trade area large format retail expenditure is currently estimated at $396.0 million and is
projected to increase to $510.3 million by 2031. As shown in Chart 2.3, large format retail expenditure
per capita within the main trade area is higher than both the South-East Queensland and Australia
benchmarks.
ix. Given the significant residential development occurring throughout the total trade area, the total trade
area contains many households in the formation cycle (i.e. new homes) that typically have a high spend
on large format retail products in the initial two years of homes being completed.
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 32
May 2019
Page 34
CHART 2.2. AVERAGE PER CAPITA TRADITIONAL RETAIL SPENDING, 2017/18
Food/Non-Food
$16,000
Total Trade Area $13,764 $13,701
$14,000
SE QLD Average
$12,000
$10,000
$7,887 $7,768
$8,000
$5,877 $5,933
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Total Food Total Non-food Total Retail
Source: Marketinfo
Detailed Retail Category
$4,000
Total Trade Area
$3,500 $3,373
SE QLD Average
$3,000
$2,665
$2,500 $2,301
$2,000
$1,500 $1,386
$1,100 $1,108
$1,000 $826
$587
$417
$500
$0
Fresh Food Other F&G Packaged Food Catering Apparel Household Leisure General Retail Retail
Liquor Goods Services
Source: Marketinfo
Variation from SE Queensland Benchmark
6.0%
4.5%
3.6%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0% 1.5%
0.5%
0.0%
-2.0% -1.2% -0.9%
-4.0% -2.7%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-10.6% -10.4%
-12.0%
Food Retail Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail Food Non-Food Total Retail
Catering Goods Retail Services
Source: Marketinfo
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 33
May 2019
Page 35
TABLE 2.4. TOTAL TRADE AREA TRADITIONAL RETAIL SPEND, 2018 – 31
Y/E Primary Secondary Main Tertiary Total
June Sector Sector TA Sector TA
2018 1,011.7 355.1 1,366.7 515.9 1,882.6
2019 1,033.1 363.4 1,396.6 525.5 1,922.1
2020 1,054.1 371.9 1,426.0 534.6 1,960.5
2021 1,075.5 380.5 1,456.0 543.8 1,999.8
2022 1,096.0 388.5 1,484.4 552.8 2,037.2
2023 1,115.4 395.8 1,511.2 561.5 2,072.7
2024 1,135.2 403.2 1,538.4 570.3 2,108.7
2025 1,155.4 410.7 1,566.2 579.3 2,145.5
2026 1,176.0 418.4 1,594.4 588.4 2,182.8
2027 1,195.5 425.1 1,620.6 597.6 2,218.2
2028 1,213.9 430.6 1,644.5 606.9 2,251.4
2029 1,232.7 436.2 1,668.9 616.3 2,285.1
2030 1,251.7 441.9 1,693.6 625.8 2,319.4
2031 1,271.0 447.7 1,718.7 635.5 2,354.1
Expenditure Growth
2018-2021 63.9 25.4 89.3 27.9 117.1
2021-2026 100.5 37.9 138.4 44.6 183.0
2026-2031 95.1 29.2 124.3 47.0 171.3
2018-2031 259.4 92.6 351.9 119.6 471.5
Average Annual Growth Rate
2018-2021 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0%
2021-2026 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8%
2026-2031 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
2018-2031 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7%
*Constant 2017/18 dollars & Including GST
Source : Marketinfo
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 34
May 2019
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TABLE 2.4. TOTAL TRADE AREA TRADITIONAL RETAIL SPEND, 2018 — 31
YIE
June
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Expenditure Growth
2018-2021
2021-2026
2026-2031
2018-2031
Primary
Sector
1,011.7
1,033.1
1,054.1
1,075.5
1,096.0
1,115.4
1,135.2
1,155.4
1,176.0
1,195.5
1,213.9
1,232.7
1,251.7
1,271.0
63.9
100.5
95.1
259.4
Average Annual Growth Rate
2018-2021
2021-2026
2026-2031
2018-2031
2.1%
1.8%
1.6%
1.8%
*Constant 2017/18 dollars & Including GST
Source : Marketinfo
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment
May 2019
Secondary
Sector
355.1
363.4
371.9
380.5
388.5
395.8
403.2
410.7
418.4
425.1
430.6
436.2
441.9
447.7
25.4
37.9
29.2
92.6
2.3%
1.9%
1.4%
1.8%
Main
TA
1,366.7
1,396.6
1,426.0
1,456.0
1,484.4
1,511.2
1,538.4
1,566.2
1,594.4
1,620.6
1,644.5
1,668.9
1,693.6
1,718.7
89.3
138.4
124.3
351.9
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.8%
Tertiary
Sector
515.9
525.5
534.6
543.8
552.8
561.5
570.3
579.3
588.4
597.6
606.9
616.3
625.8
635.5
27.9
44.6
47.0
119.6
1.8%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
Total
TA
1,882.6
1,922.1
1,960.5
1,999.8
2,037.2
2,072.7
2,108.7
2,145.5
2,182.8
2,218.2
2,251.4
2,285.1
2,319.4
2,354.1
117.1
183.0
171.3
471.5
2.0%
1.8%
1.5%
1.7%
34
Page 36
TABLE 2.5. TTA TRADITIONAL RETAIL SPEND BY COMMODITY GROUP, 2018 – 31
Y/E Food & Food H'hold General Retail
June Liquor Catering Apparel Goods Leisure Retail Services
2018 889.1 189.6 150.5 364.5 80.3 151.6 57.0
2019 905.3 194.1 154.0 373.0 82.2 155.1 58.3
2020 921.0 198.4 157.5 381.4 84.1 158.6 59.6
2021 936.9 202.9 161.0 390.0 85.9 162.1 61.0
2022 951.9 207.2 164.4 398.2 87.8 165.5 62.3
2023 965.9 211.3 167.7 406.1 89.5 168.8 63.5
2024 980.0 215.4 171.0 414.1 91.3 172.1 64.8
2025 994.4 219.7 174.4 422.3 93.1 175.5 66.1
2026 1,009.0 224.1 177.8 430.6 94.9 179.0 67.4
2027 1,022.6 228.2 181.1 438.6 96.7 182.3 68.6
2028 1,035.2 232.2 184.3 446.2 98.3 185.5 69.8
2029 1,047.9 236.2 187.4 453.9 100.0 188.7 71.0
2030 1,060.7 240.2 190.7 461.8 101.8 191.9 72.2
2031 1,073.7 244.4 194.0 469.8 103.5 195.3 73.5
Expenditure Growth
2018-2021 47.8 13.3 10.5 25.4 5.6 10.6 4.0
2021-2026 72.1 21.2 16.8 40.7 9.0 16.9 6.4
2026-2031 64.7 20.3 16.1 39.1 8.6 16.3 6.1
2018-2031 184.6 54.8 43.5 105.2 23.2 43.7 16.5
Average Annual Growth Rate
2018-2021 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
2021-2026 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2026-2031 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
2018-2031 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
*Constant 2017/18 dollars & Including GST
Source : Marketinfo
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 35
May 2019
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TABLE 2.5. TTA TRADITIONAL RETAIL SPEND BY COMMODITY GROUP, 2018 — 31
YIE Food & Food H'hold General
June Liquor Catering Apparel Goods Leisure Retail
2018 889.1 189.6 150.5 364.5 80.3 151.6
2019 905.3 194.1 154.0 373.0 82.2 155.1
2020 921.0 198.4 157.5 381.4 84.1 158.6
2021 936.9 202.9 161.0 390.0 85.9 162.1
2022 951.9 207.2 164.4 398.2 87.8 165.5
2023 965.9 211.3 167.7 406.1 89.5 168.8
2024 980.0 215.4 171.0 414.1 91.3 172.1
2025 994.4 219.7 174.4 422.3 93.1 175.5
2026 1,009.0 224.1 177.8 430.6 94.9 179.0
2027 1,022.6 228.2 181.1 438.6 96.7 182.3
2028 1,035.2 232.2 184.3 446.2 98.3 185.5
2029 1,047.9 236.2 187.4 453.9 100.0 188.7
2030 1,060.7 240.2 190.7 461.8 101.8 191.9
2031 1,073.7 244.4 194.0 469.8 103.5 195.3
Expenditure Growth
2018-2021 47.8 13.3 10.5 25.4 5.6 10.6
2021-2026 72.1 21.2 16.8 40.7 9.0 16.9
2026-2031 64.7 20.3 16.1 39.1 8.6 16.3
2018-2031 184.6 54.8 43.5 105.2 23.2 43.7
Average Annual Growth Rate
2018-2021 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
2021-2026 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2026-2031 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
2018-2031 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
*Constant 2017/18 dollars & Including GST
Source : Marketinfo
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment
May 2019
Retail
Services
57.0
58.3
59.6
61.0
62.3
63.5
64.8
66.1
67.4
68.6
69.8
71.0
72.2
73.5
4.0
6.4
6.1
16.5
2.3%
2.0%
1.8%
2.0%
35
Page 37
TABLE 2.6. TOTAL TRADE AREA LARGE FORMAT RETAIL EXPENDITURE, 2018-31 ($M)
Y/E Primary Secondary Main Tertiary Total
June Sector Sector TA Sector TA
2018 216.9 73.7 290.6 105.4 396.0
2019 222.0 75.7 297.7 107.6 405.2
2020 227.0 77.6 304.6 109.7 414.3
2021 232.2 79.6 311.7 111.9 423.6
2022 237.1 81.4 318.6 114.0 432.5
2023 241.9 83.2 325.0 116.1 441.1
2024 246.7 84.9 331.6 118.2 449.8
2025 251.7 86.7 338.4 120.3 458.7
2026 256.7 88.5 345.3 122.5 467.8
2027 261.6 90.1 351.7 124.7 476.5
2028 266.2 91.5 357.7 127.0 484.7
2029 270.9 92.9 363.8 129.2 493.1
2030 275.7 94.3 370.1 131.6 501.6
2031 280.6 95.8 376.4 133.9 510.3
Expenditure Growth
2018-2021 15.3 5.8 21.1 6.5 27.6
2021-2026 24.6 8.9 33.5 10.7 44.2
2026-2031 23.9 7.3 31.1 11.4 42.5
2018-2031 63.7 22.0 85.7 28.6 114.3
Average Annual Growth Rate
2018-2021 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.3%
2021-2026 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0%
2026-2031 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%
2018-2031 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
*Constant 2017/18 dollars & Including GST
Source : Marketinfo
Noosa Marketplace, Queensland
Economic Impact Assessment 36
May 2019
[OCR of page images]
TABLE 2.6. TOTAL TRADE AREA LARGE FORMAT RETAIL EXPENDITURE, 2018-31 ($M)
YIE Primary Secondary Main Tertiary Total
June Sector Sector TA Sector TA
2018 216.9 73.7 290.6 105.4 396.0
2019 222.0 75.7 297.7 107.6 405.2
2020 227.0 77.6 304.6 109.7 414.3
2021 232.2 79.6 311.7 111.9 423.6
2022 237.1 81.4 318.6 114.0 432.5
2023 241.9 83.2 325.0 116.1 441.1
2024 246.7 84.9 331.6 118.2 449.8
2025 251.7 86.7 338.4 120.3 458.7
2026 256.7 88.5 345.3 122.5 467.8
2027 261.6 90.1 351.7 124.7 476.5
2028 266.2 91.5 357.7 127.0 484.7
2029 270.9 92.9 363.8 129.2 493.1
2030 275.7 94.3 370.1 131.6 501.6
2031 280.6 95.8 376.4 133.9 510.3
Expenditure Growth
2018-2021 15.3 5.8 21.1 6.5 276
2021-2026 24.6 8.9 33.5 10.7 44.2
2026-2031 23.9 7.3 31.1 11.4 42.5
2018-2031 63.7 22.0 85.7 28.6 114.3
Average Annual Growth Rate
2018-2021 2.3% 2.6% 24% 2.0% 2.3%
2021-2026 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0%
2026-2031 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%
2018-2031 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
*Constant 2017/18 dollars & Including GST
Source : Marketinfo
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CHART 2.3. AVERAGE PER CAPITA LARGE FORMAT RETAIL SPENDING, 2017/18
$3,500
$3,073
$3,000 $2,913 $2,869 $2,854
$2,577
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector SE QLD Australia
Source: Marketinfo
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2.5. Other Customer Segments
Large format retail and non-retail showrooms at the Noosa Marketplace site would also service a number of
other customer segments including tourists and trade supplies.
Tourists
i. In relation to tourists, Noosa is a significant tourist destination including day trippers, domestic overnight
tourists and international tourists.
ii. Some 4.7 million visitor nights are spent in Noosa each year in a range of tourist accommodation
facilities. These tourists spend the equivalent of around 15% of trade area resident retail spending.
Consequently, given the large range of tourist accommodation, there would also be some spending on
large format retail facilities as part of furnishing and upgrading these accommodation facilities,
estimated at 10%.
iii. As discussed previously, the types of retail categories that are typically incorporated within the large
format retail stores are as follows:
‒ Hardware ‒ Curtains and blinds
‒ Doors ‒ Heating and cooling
‒ Flooring ‒ Home decoration and paint
‒ Lawn & Garden ‒ Lighting and fans
‒ Outdoor Living ‒ Household Appliances
‒ Furniture ‒ Brown goods
‒ Manchester ‒ White Goods
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Trade Supplies
i. Given the nature of the products sold within the Australian large format retail market, stores operating
within the sector primarily serve two separate customer segments, being:
Residents purchasing products for personal or non-business related uses, such as tools and building
equipment to refurbish their home, or plants and soil for landscaping their garden. This customer
segment is commonly referred to as the ‘retail customer.’
Businesses or tradespeople purchasing supplies for business related uses, such as a builder
purchasing supplies to renovate a customer’s home. This customer segment is commonly referred
to as the ‘trade customer.’
ii. The majority of large format retail stores would serve a residential customer base, with trade sales
typically accounting for less than 10% of store sales. There are, however, a range of other tenants in
the non-retail space such as Reece Plumbing and the like which have a high proportion of sales from
the trade sector. Trade sales, therefore, would also contribute to sales at the subject Noosa Marketplace
site.
iii. Tourists and trade sales in combination, therefore, are likely to account for 10% - 20% of demand
depending on the types of tenants that locate at the site.
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COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
This section of the report provides a summary of the existing and proposed competitive developments within
the area surrounding the Noosa Marketplace, namely large format retail and showroom facilities as well as
traditional retail centres.
3.1. Large Format Retail and Non-Retail Showroom Facilities
i. Major large format retail and non-retail showroom facilities throughout South-east Queensland are
typically up to 20,000 sq.m in size and includes key tenants such as Anaconda, Beacon Lighting,
Godfreys, Harvey Norman, The Good Guys, JB Hi-Fi, Nick Scali and Spotlight. Non-retail showroom
stores which serve the trade market include tenants such as Reece Plumbing, Jaycar Electronics,
Tradelink, Dulux Paint and the like.
ii. Maps 3.1 and 3.2 and Table 3.1 illustrate large format retail and non-retail showroom facilities (including
vehicles) currently provided across the total trade area, with key points to note including:
— Based on a survey conducted by Location IQ in April 2019, there are currently 145 large format
retail and non-retail showroom facilities provided across the total trade area.
— The primary sector comprises the majority of large format retail and showroom facilities within the
broader region, predominantly focussed around Noosaville. A total of 100 tenants were located
within the key primary sector, or around 69% of the total trade area provision. Primary sector tenants
are generally located within two key precincts, namely the Noosa Civic precinct and the Noosa
Homemaker Centre precinct (Noosaville).
— The secondary sector has a very low provision of tenants, given the positioning of the sector
between two regional hubs at Noosa and Maroochydore.
— Beyond the main trade area (in the tertiary sector), facilities are predominantly located in and around
Gympie, which services the broader area to the west of Noosa.
iii. Overall, Noosa and Gympie are the focus for large format retail and non-retail showroom facilities
throughout the total trade area, with Noosaville servicing the primary sector. Beyond the total trade
area, large format retail facilities are concentrated in Maroochydore and Kawana to the south.
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iv. Maps 3.3 and 3.4 provide a more granular view of large format retail and showroom facilities
surrounding the Noosa Marketplace in Noosaville and the Noosa Homemaker Centre, respectively. Key
findings are detailed as follows:
Noosa Civic Precinct
i. There is in-excess of 80 large format retail and non-retail showroom facilities currently provided around
the proposed Noosa Marketplace site, the majority of which are located in industrial-zoned land to the
west of the site.
ii. Facilities to the east of the site are limited to Noosa Civic Emporium, along Walter Hay Drive, which
forms part of the Noosa Civic retail precinct.
iii. Tenants which rely on showroom-type floorspace and high traffic exposure tend to occupy these
positions for display purposes (including motor vehicle showrooms, flooring tenants and furniture
display suites) are generally provided along major arterial routes with high exposure to passing traffic,
particularly along Eumundi Noosa Road and Eenie Creek Road.
iv. Independent traders and light industrial and warehouse showroom tenants are generally located in back
streets or internalised locations within the designated industrial precinct. Three recently completed
developments within the precinct include:
1. Noosa Industrial Park is located at the intersection of Venture Drive and Gateway Drive. Based
on inspection, 17 of the total 18 lots are now leased.
2. 1 Selkirk Drive, to the immediate north-east of the Noosa site was completed in 2018. Currently,
five of the 12 tenancies have been leased.
3. 100 Rene Street sub-division was recently completed, 600 metres south of the site. Of the 11
tenancies, three are currently leased.
None of the leased tenants within these new developments are classified as large format retail or non-
retail showroom facilities.
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Noosa Homemaker Centre Precinct (Noosaville)
i. A secondary provision of tenants is located within the Business Centre-zoned land around Noosa
Homemaker Centre (Noosaville) in the primary sector. The centre and surrounds have a more retail
focus, with limited non-retail showroom/display suite tenants. This is likely attributable to the internalised
nature of the site.
ii. Traditional retail-type tenants located at Noosa Homemaker Centre include; Rip Curl, a gym,
launderette, hairdresser, beauty spa and optometrist.
iii. Tables 3.2 and 3.3 provide a gap analysis of the major national large format retail and showroom tenants
provided throughout the Noosa total trade area and Queensland. As shown, a range of prominent large
format retail/showroom operators are not represented within the total trade area, including but not
limited to the following:
‒ Automotive: Auto One;
‒ Bedding: Bedshed, Sleepys, Snooze and The Sleeping Giant;
‒ Electrical: Jaycar Electronics, JB Hi-Fi, Leading Appliances, RT Edwards, The Good Guys;
‒ Furniture: Aussie Living, Bay Leather Republic, Dare Gallery, Domayne, Early Settler
Furniture, Fantastic Furniture, Freedom, IKEA, King Living, Nick Scali, Oz Design, Plush,
Samsara, Super A-Mart, The Outdoor Furniture Specialists, Vast Interior;
‒ Home: Kitchen Connection, Kitchen Trends, Miele, Sink and Bathroom Shop, Total Eden
‒ Home Deco: Beaumont Tiles, Carpet Court, Carpet One, Curtain Wonderland, DecoRug,
Howards Storage World, Rugs a Million, Spotlight;
‒ Vehicles: Volkswagen and a host of other vehicle brands, as well as Suzuki Marine¸ Avanti,
Reid Cycles¸99 Bikes, Isuzu;
‒ Miscellaneous: Amart Sports, Anaconda, Clark Rubber, Kathmandu, Robins Kitchen.
iv. The majority of large chain brands that operate within the region are provided at both Noosa and
Gympie, however, given the size of the defined total trade area and distance to competing large format
facilities, several tenants that are provided within the tertiary sector could also be interested in locating
at the Noosa site. Indicatively, these tenants may include Beds R Us, Betta Home Living, Carpet Court,
Barbeques Galore, Robins Kitchen and Lincraft.
v. Beyond the trade area, the nearest closest facilities are provided at Maroochydore and Kawana, a 70
km round trip for most residents of the trade area.
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MAP 3.1. LARGE FORMAT RETAIL & SHOWROOM FACILITIES (TOTAL TRADE AREA)
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MAP 3.2. LARGE FORMAT RETAIL AND SHOWROOM FACILITIES (PRIMARY SECTOR)
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TABLE 3.1. LARGE FORMAT RETAIL & SHOWROOM TENANTS BY CATEGORY
Count of Tenants
Primary Secondary Tertiary Total
Tenant Category Sector Sector Sector Trade Area
Automotive 10 0 3 13
Bedding 1 1 1 3
Electrical 4 0 4 8
Furniture 6 2 1 9
Hardware 6 2 3 11
Home 10 4 3 17
Home Decoration 30 0 7 37
Utilities 29 7 6 42
Vehicles 4 1 0 5
Miscellaneous 11 0 1 12
Total 100 17 28 145
Source: Location IQ tenant survey, April 2019
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MAP 3.3. NOOSA BUSINESS CENTRE PRECINCT - LFR AND SHOWROOM FACILITIES
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MAP 3.4. NOOSA HOMEMAKER CENTRE PRECINCT- LFR & SHOWROOM FACILITIES
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TABLE 3.2. NATIONAL BRAND LARGE FORMAT RETAILER GAP ANALYSIS (PART 1)
Ave. GLA Primary Secondary Tertiary Maroochy Kawana
Tenant (sq.m) Sector Sector Sector dore Region QLD
Auto
Auto One 565 •
Auto Pro 515 • • •
Autobarn 849 • • • • •
Repco 587 • • • •
Super Cheap Auto 834 • • • • •
Electrical, Sound & Computers
Betta Home Living 621 • •
Godfreys 371 • • • • •
Jaycar Electronics 432 • •
JB Hi-Fi 1,249 • •
Leading Appliances 403 •
RT Edwards 801 •
The Good Guys 2,458 • • •
Florists, Pets, Toys & Miscellaneous
Clark Rubber 757 •
Love Lombard XO 1,465 •
Officeworks 1,825 • • • •
Petbarn 875 • • • • •
Toys R Us 2,380 •
Homewares
Adairs 337 • • •
Bed Bath N Table 244 • • •
Curtain Wonderland 570 • •
Dare Gallery 786 • •
Howards Storage World 449 • •
Lincraft 1,233 • • •
Pillow Talk 1,116 • • • • •
Provincial Home Living 890 • •
Robins Kitchen 123 • • •
Spotlight 2,631 • •
Vast Interior 744 • •
Sporting Goods
Anaconda 1,972 • •
BCF 1,277 • • •
Kathmandu 418 • •
Source: Location IQ Database
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TABLE 3.3. NATIONAL BRAND LARGE FORMAT RETAILER GAP ANALYSIS (PART 2)
Ave. GLA Primary Secondary Tertiary Maroochy Kawana
Tenant (sq.m) Sector Sector Sector dore Region QLD
Furniture & Hardware
Amart Furniture 4,077 • • •
Barbeques Galore 816 • • •
Beacon Lighting 743 • • • • •
Bedshed 1,079 • •
Bunnings Trade Centre 3,898 • •
Bunnings Warehouse 10,189 • • • • •
Carpet Call 874 • • • •
Carpet Court 573 • • • •
Carpet One 553 • •
Choices Flooring 626 • • •
Decorug 522 •
Domayne 5,557 • •
Early Settler Furniture 1,341 • •
Fantastic Furniture 2,526 • •
Forty Winks 1,094 • • • •
Freedom Furniture 2,188 • •
Harvey Norman 4,367 • • • •
Home Timber & Hardware 1,535 • • • •
Ikea 28,340 •
King Living 761 •
Mitre 10 1,557 • • • •
Nick Scali Furniture 2,194 • •
Oz Design Furniture 981 • •
Plush 1,121 • •
Rugs A Million 422 • •
Samsara 433 •
Sleepys 421 • • •
Snooze 1,212 • •
Solomons Flooring 352 • • • • •
The Outdoor Furniture Specialist 645 • •
The Sleeping Giant 1,056 •
Thrifty Link 503 • •
True Value Hardware 587 • • •
Source: Location IQ Database
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3.2. Traditional Retail Centres
i. Traditional retail centres, as illustrated on Map 3.5, are outlined as defined by retail economists,
including:
— Regional Shopping Centres include one or more department stores and are higher order non-food
retail facilities that have a wider draw.
— Sub-regional Shopping Centres contain at least one discount department store and generally at
least one supermarket.
— Supermarket-based Shopping Centres which generally serve the local population within 3 – 5 km.
The key competitive facilities are described below.
Regional Shopping Centres
i. There are currently no regional shopping centres situated within the total trade area. The closest
regional shopping centre is Sunshine Plaza at Maroochydore, which is located 35 km to the south of
the Noosa site.
ii. The recently expanded Sunshine Plaza is 107,000 sq.m, based on David Jones and Myer department
store, Target and Kmart discount department stores, as well as Coles and Woolworths supermarkets.
Sub-regional Shopping Centre
i. Sub-regional shopping centres are anchored by one or more discount department stores. There are
currently two sub-regional shopping centres within the total trade area, namely Noosa Civic and Gympie
Central.
— Noosa Civic (21,442 sq.m) is located immediately east of the proposed Noosa Marketplace site in
the primary sector. The centre is currently anchored by a Big W discount department store,
Woolworths supermarket, two mini-majors and 99 retail specialty stores.
— Gympie Central (14,050 sq.m) is located in the tertiary sector, more than 57 km north-west of the
Noosa site. The centre includes a Big W discount department store, as well as Woolworths and Aldi
supermarkets.
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Supermarket Based Centres
i. Given the geographically extensive main trade area, there are several supermarket-based shopping
centres throughout the total trade area that serve the everyday convenience needs of their immediate
population.
ii. These centres are of little competitive relevance to proposed large format and showroom facilities at
the Noosa site.
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MAP 3.5. TRADITIONAL RETAIL COMPETITION
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3.3. Proposed Developments
i. The Planning and Environment Court dismissed an appeal by QIC Noosa Civic Pty Ltd for a 35,000
sq.m extension to Noosa Civic, which was planned to comprise a Target, Coles, Aldi and 50 retail
speciality shops. This development is not assumed to proceed.
ii. A proposed Bunnings Warehouse at Coolum was refused by the Sunshine Coast Council for a third
time in 2016. For the purposes of this assessment, a Bunnings store is not expected to proceed at the
site.
iii. In terms of prospective large format retail and non-retail showroom floorspace developments, there are
two industrial sub-divisions currently for sale or under construction within close proximity to the site
(refer previous Map 3.3), namely:
— 50 Venture Drive, Noosaville: is a currently vacant site advertised for sale, to include eight
tenancies, of which, six are already sold off the plan.
— Mancave and Trade Park, Noosaville: appears to be approaching completion, with 11 of the
12 lots already sold.
iv. Each of these facilities is located without main road exposure and with small lot sizes that are not
conducive to a large format retail and non-retail showroom precinct attracting national branded tenants.
v. On this basis, prospective tenants at these sites are likely to include a mix of commercial and/or light
industrial uses, rather than large format retailers.
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3.4. Summary
i. There are currently a variety of large format retail and non-retail showroom tenants provided throughout
the total trade area, most notably around Noosa Civic, Noosaville and Gympie.
ii. Beyond the total trade area, the nearest significant provision of large format retail and showroom
facilities are provided around Maroochydore, more than a 70 km round trip from Noosa.
iii. Given the current mix of tenants within the total trade area, there is an opportunity for many key large
format retail and showroom tenants that are not yet represented within the total trade area (or primary
sector) to locate at the Noosa Marketplace and service local residents.
iv. There are no competitive developments currently planned within the total trade area that are likely to
impact the viability of the proposed Noosa site. Further, there is a lack of vacant or high-profile land
which would appeal to prospective large format retail and showroom tenants.
v. Given the rate of residential development in the area and strategic positioning of the site, there is an
opportunity to establish a critical mass of tenants that would position Noosa as the key large format
retail and non-retail showroom centre for the broader region.
vi. While there are a number of tenants currently provided within the area surrounding the site, additional
major tenants would add to the destinational appeal of the area and help to create a critical mass of
facilities that is contiguous with existing uses Noosa Business Centre.
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ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL
This section of the report considers the potential for the proposed Noosa Marketplace, as well as the likely
trading and other impacts which can be anticipated following construction.
4.1. Floorspace Supply and Demand
Floorspace Demand
i. In Australia, there is around 2.3 sq.m of retail floorspace provided for every resident. Of this 2.3 sq.m,
approximately 30% is estimated to be in large format retail floorspace, or 0.6 – 0.7 sq.m of large format
retail floorspace per person.
ii. In addition, non-retail showroom facilities such as trade and wholesale showrooms or non-retail display
suites are estimated to make up around 0.3 sq.m of floorspace per person. This does not include vehicle
showrooms (cars, boats, trucks etc.).
iii. Table 4.1 outlines the estimated current large format retail and non-retail floorspace demanded by total
trade area residents and the likely growth in this demand over the period to 2031.
iv. The average provision of large format retail floorspace and non-retail showroom facilities in combination
is typically 0.9 – 1.1 sq.m per person. There are currently 137,740 persons residing in the Noosa total
trade area. Based on this benchmark, the current total trade area population would demand of
approximately 124,000 – 150,000 sq.m of large format retail floorspace in 2018.
v. Table 4.1 also outlines the provision of large format retail and non-retail showroom floorspace currently
provided within the total trade area. This information is based on a detailed survey undertaken by
Location IQ in April 2019 and includes GLA estimates for the individual tenants outlined previously in
Section 3.1 of this report. For the purposes of this assessment motor vehicle/boat show rooms have
been excluded from the survey.
vi. As shown, the provision of large format retail/showroom floorspace across the total trade area is
estimated at just over 94,200 sq.m. This equates to a provision of around 0.68 sq.m per person, which
is lower than typical benchmarks despite a broad interpretation of the large format retail and showroom
category in this case.
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vii. Over the period to 2031, the total trade area population is projected to increase by 17,600 persons to
155,340. If the large format retail floorspace demand is recorded at 1 sq.m per person, this would lead
to an overall demand of large format retail floorspace of 155,340 sq.m by 2031, an increase of 17,600
sq.m on the current demand. If there were to be no increases in the current supply of large format retail
floorspace, this would lead to excess demand (or an undersupply) of over 61,000 sq.m of large format
retail and non-retail showroom floorspace (by 2031).
TABLE 4.1. LARGE FORMAT RETAIL & NON-RETAIL SHOWROOM FLOORSPACE
SUPPLY & DEMAND
Current Projected
2018 2021 2026 2031
Estimated Resident Population
Primary Sector 71,090 73,790 77,540 80,540
Secondary Sector 25,520 26,720 28,220 28,970
Tertiary Sector 41,130 42,330 44,080 45,830
Total Trade Area (TTA) 137,740 142,840 149,840 155,340
Estimated LFR and Showroom Floorspace*
Primary Sector 52,566 52,566 52,566 52,566
Secondary Sector 9,020 9,020 9,020 9,020
Tertiary Sector 32,635 32,635 32,635 32,635
Total Trade Area (TTA) 94,221 94,221 94,221 94,221
TTA LFR/Showroom Floorspace Demand (sq.m)
Low (@0.9 sq.m per person) 123,966 128,556 134,856 139,806
• LFR Floorspace Growth per Annum 918 1,260 990
Medium (@1.0 sq.m per person) 137,740 142,840 149,840 155,340
• LFR Floorspace Growth per Annum 1,020 1,400 1,100
High (@1.1 sq.m per person) 151,514 157,124 164,824 170,874
• LFR Floorspace Growth per Annum 1,122 1,540 1,210
TTA LFR Floorspace Over/Under Supply
Low -29,745 -34,335 -40,635 -45,585
Medium -43,519 -48,619 -55,619 -61,119
High -57,293 -62,903 -70,603 -76,653
Over / Under Supply
*Excludes Boat, Campervan, Car, Motorbike and Truck showroom floorspace
Source: Location IQ
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Land Supply
i. Map 4.1 provides an illustration of land usage surrounding the Noosa site, specifically Industry and Noosa
Business Centre zoned precincts adjoining the site. Table 4.2 summarises the findings of the high-level
floorspace survey, with key points to note including:
— Of the estimated 40.1 hectares of Noosa Business Centre-zoned land in the precinct, 71% is
currently vacant or undeveloped. Around 5% of land was sold recently although is not yet fully
leased, with the remaining 29% being occupied.
— In contrast, of the estimated 64.1 hectares of Industry zoned land, just 7% of land is currently vacant
or not being utilised. Approximately 1% of total Industry zoned land is currently for sale.
— By way of contrast, vacant or unutilised land within the Industry zoned precinct surrounding the site
totals just 4.7 hectares, compared to 28.4 hectares of vacant Noosa Business Centre zoned land
(including the subject site). These individual industry-zoned sites are fragmented and could not
accommodate the critical mass of large format retail/nonretail showroom is to service the coming
undersupply within the total trade area.
— Vacant industrial land is largely located in backstreet and/or internalised locations, while vacant
Noosa Business Centre land naturally forms an extension of the Noosa Civic retail precinct.
— Prospective large format retail and showroom tenants that are currently (and will be increasingly)
demanded by the total trade area population are more likely to establish premises within high profile
precincts or retail strips such as the subject site, as compared with internal, low-exposure sites such
as the limited vacant parcels of land current zoned Industry.
ii. Map 4.2 illustrates industrial-zoned land throughout the total trade area. As shown, the amount of land
available for such uses is focussed in Noosaville, with very limited parcels of industrial-zoned land provided
in and around Gympie. No industrial land is provided within the secondary sector.
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MAP 4.1. INDUSTRIAL AND SHIRE BUSINESS ZONING, LAND USE
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TABLE 4.2. INDUSTRIAL AND SHIRE BUSINESS ZONING, LAND USE
Total Size % of
Usage and Occupancy Status (h.a.) Total
Noosa Business Centre Zoning
Occupied 11.7 29%
Recently Sold 2.1 5%
For Sale 0.0 0%
Vacant 3.5 9%
Undeveloped 24.9 62%
Total Shire Business Centre 40.1 100%
Industry Zoning
Occupied 59.1 92%
For Sale 0.4 1%
Vacant 4.7 7%
Total Industry 64.1 100%
Source: Location IQ survey (April 2019)
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MAP 4.2. TOTAL TRADE AREA INDUSTRIAL-ZONED LAND
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4.2. Sales Overview and Impacts
i. In order to assess the potential economic benefits and impacts that may arise from the development of
the proposed Noosa Showroom development, the sales level that the development is projected to
achieve is outlined.
ii. The sales performance of any particular retail facility, be it an individual store or a collection of stores,
is determined by a combination of the following critical factors:
— The composition and quality of the facility, including major trader or traders; the specialty mix; centre
layout and configuration; ease of accessibility and parking; and the overall feel of the centre.
— The size of the available catchment which the facility serves.
— The locations and strengths of competitive retail facilities.
iii. The sales potential for the proposed large format retail stores and non-retail showrooms at the Noosa
Marketplace site is now considered, taking into account these factors.
iv. Upon completion, the proposed development will total some 8,780 sq.m of large format retail/showroom
floorspace and will generate sales primarily from the large format retail market as well as from tourists
and trade sales, as discussed and measured in Section 2 of this report. For the purposes of this
assessment, it is assumed that all sales for the subject development are from the retail market,
excluding the trade market. This presents a conservative view of impacts (i.e. highest level).
v. As shown in the previous Table 2.6, the total large format retail spending market is currently estimated
at $396.0 million and is projected to increase to $423.6 million by 2021.
vi. The typical trading level for large format retail/showroom facilities within Australia can vary substantially
depending on the tenant as well as the location, however, the average trading level is generally
considered to be in the order of $3,000 per sq.m. However, it is difficult to forecast sales for the proposed
centre at the subject site given the likely inclusion of non-retail showroom floorspace.
vii. For the purposes of this analysis, we have assumed that proposed development will achieve strong
sales of around $3,500 per sq.m (i.e. a ‘worst case scenario’ in terms of impacts on existing retailers)
in 2021 (constant 2018 dollars and including GST), or around $30.7 million. These projections represent
the upper limit of sales likely to be achieved at the centre.
viii. Sales for the proposed Noosa Showroom development are likely to be generated from a number of
sources including total trade area residents and customers residing beyond the defined total trade area,
resulting from the larger draw of the Noosa region as well as business generated by passing traffic. This
figure is estimated at 10%.
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ix. Table 4.3 outlines the projected impacts from the proposed development. The table commences with
an estimation of the current and projected total large format retail market. As shown, the large format
retail market is projected to increase by some $27.6 million, or 7.0% between 2018 and 2021. The
majority of sales for the subject development, therefore, will be as a result of market growth.
x. Taking the above into account, the Noosa Marketplace is likely to gain approximately 90% of sales, or
$27.7 million, from spending generated by total trade area customers ($30.7 million minus 10% from
beyond). This would equate to around 6.5% of the 2021 total trade area large format retail market
defined in Table 2.6 ($27.7 million trade area generated sales divided by $423.6 million in large format
retail expenditure).
xi. As a result, the average impact on surrounding large format retail stores would be in the order of 6.5%
in 2021, and therefore, the proposed development is unlikely to affect the viability or continued operation
of any store with impacts of less than 10% typically considered within the normal competitive range.
xii. This analysis assumes that all impacts resulting from the proposed development will be on existing
retailers within the total trade area and does not assume that the proposed development will reduce the
amount of spending currently escaping the trade area. In reality, given that anchor tenants not currently
provided within the total trade area will likely be targeted, a proportion of sales generated by the
proposed development will result from the redirection of spending from retailers beyond the total trade
area.
xiii. It is important to note that impacts outlined in this report are indicative only, as it is difficult to precisely
project the sales impact of the opening of a new store on existing retail facilities. A number of factors
can influence the impact on individual centres/retailers, including but not limited to:
The likely inclusion of non-retail showroom/display suites as part of the development and
therefore lower sales potential.
Refurbishment/improvements to existing centres.
Expansions to existing centres.
Loyalty programs of existing retailers.
The existing centre mix and how it competes with the proposed development.
xiv. For all these reasons and other similar factors, sales impacts outlined in this report should be used as
a broad indication only.
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xv. However, it is unlikely that the development would impact surrounding facilities to the degree outlined
above given it would likely comprise new traders to the locality (as outlined in Section 3.1) and as such,
would not provide a direct replication of any existing tenant or facility within the immediate region.
Further, a proportion of sales generated by the centre would come from the retention of escaped
expenditure of total trade area residents.
xvi. Consequently, any impact on surrounding facilities would be below 6.5% and minimal. Further, growth
in population and large format retail spending within the total trade area will ameliorate any impacts on
existing retailers.
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TABLE 4.3. NOOSA SITE TRADING IMPACT ASSESSMENT, 2018 – 2021
Estimated Projected 2021 Impact 2021
Unit 2018 Pre Dev. Post Dev. $M %
Noosa Spotlight Development
Sales from TTA residents $M 396.0 0.0 27.7 30.7 n.a.
Sales from Beyond TTA $M 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1 n.a.
Total $M 0.0 0.0 30.7 30.7 n.a.
Total Trade Area LFR/Showroom
Noosa Home development $M 0.0 0.0 30.7 30.7 n.a.
Other LFR/Showrooms in TTA $M 396.0 423.6 396.0 -27.7 -6.5%
Total $M 396.0 423.6 426.7 3.1 0.7%
Constant 2018 dollars and including GST
4.3. Employment and Consumer Impacts
i. The development of large format retail/showrooms at the subject site will result in a range of important
economic benefits. The key positive employment and consumer impacts will include the following:
The promotion of choice, convenience and price competition for Noosa residents, given the fact
that there is an existing undersupply of large format retail/non-retail showroom facilities.
Providing expansion potential for large format retail/non-retail showroom facilities, given the
limited available vacant land in the precinct. In addition, the site is located in a prominent location
that would likely attract strong national tenants not currently represented within the region.
Showroom/large format retail facilities at the Noosa site are projected to employ around 378
persons as summarised in Table 4.4. Taking a conservative view and allowing for an estimated
10% of the total increase to be as a result of the reduced employment at existing facilities, the
net additional jobs are estimated at 340.
The additional 340 permanent retail employees would earn an average annual wage of around
$38,532 (as sourced from the ABS). This represents an additional $13.1 million in salary and
wages for the local economy, directly as a result of the proposed development.
Further jobs would be created from the supplier induced multiplier effects as a result of jobs for
the on-going running of the facilities at the proposed Noosa Marketplace site as well as from the
construction of the development. Jobs created are full-time equivalent jobs, which may include
both full-time and part-time positions. In total, some 323 jobs are projected to be created in the
broader community, based on ABS Input/Output Multipliers (refer Table 4.5).
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The proposed Noosa Marketplace will create a substantial number of additional jobs, both for the
construction and related industries during the construction phase of the development and for the
economy generally once the development is completed.
The estimated total capital costs for the construction of the development are $30 million. By using
the appropriate ABS Input/Output Multipliers that were last produced in 1996/97 and a deflated
estimated total capital cost of construction of $22.9 million (i.e. in 1996/97 dollars), it is estimated
that the construction period of the proposed Noosa Showroom development would create some
160 jobs (refer Table 4.6).
The additional construction jobs (160) will result in a further 257 jobs in the broader community
based on ABS Input/Output Multipliers (refer Table 4.6).
In total some 1,080 jobs are likely to be created both directly and indirectly as a result of the proposed Noosa
Marketplace.
TABLE 4.4. NOOSA MARKETPLACE ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT
Estimated Noosa Home
Type of Use Employment Change in GLA Employment
Per '000 sq.m (sq.m) (persons)
Large Format Retail/Showroom 20 8,780 176
Business / Retail Incubator 65 1,800 117
Indoor Recreation (Kids Play Centre) 13 730 9
Commercial 50 1,200 60
Food & Beverage 60 270 16
Total Centre 1
12,780 378
Net Increase 2
340
1. Excludes non-retail components.
2. Net increase includes an allowance for reduced employment levels at impacted centres
estimated at 10% of the total increase
TABLE 4.5. ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT
Original Stimulus Direct Supplier Employment Total
Employment Multiplier Effects
Centre Employment
1
340 323 663
* Employment totals include both full-time and part-time work
1. Indicates the estimated number of net additional ongoing jobs as a result of the proposed development
Source : Australian National Accounts: Input-Output Tables 1996-97
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TABLE 4.6. ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT IMPACT
Estimated Direct Supplier
Original Stimulus Capital Costs Employment Employment Total
($M)¹ Multiplier Effects
Construction of Project 22.9 160 257 417 Job Years
2
* Employment totals include both full-time and part-time work
1. Adjusted by inflation and productivity to 1996/97 Dollars
2. Indicates the estimated number of jobs over the life of the construction project plus ongoing multiplier effects,
for the equivalent of one year
Source : Australian National Accounts: Input-Output Tables 1996-97
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NEEDS ANALYSIS
The final section of this report summarises the key conclusions of the impact analysis for the proposed Noosa
Showroom development.
‘Need’ or ‘Community Need’ in a planning sense is a relative concept that relates to the overall wellbeing of a
community. A use is needed, for example, if it would, on balance, improve the services and facilities available
in a locality. The reasonable demands and expectations of a community are important, therefore, in assessing
need.
A number of important factors that relate to need, particularly economic need, include:
‒ Population growth ‒ Site location
‒ Demand for facilities ‒ Impact on hierarchy
‒ Consumer trends ‒ Impact on existing retailers
‒ Existing supply ‒ Net community benefits
5.1. Population Growth
i. In Australia, there is around 2.3 sq.m of retail floorspace provided for every resident. Of this 2.3 sq.m,
approximately 30% is estimated to be in large format retail floorspace, or 0.6 – 0.7 sq.m of large format
retail floorspace per person. Non-retail trade showroom floorspace counts for another 0.3 sq.m per
person, resulting in an average of around 1 sq.m per person of large format retail and non-retail
showroom floorspace.
ii. The provision of large format retail/non-retail showroom floorspace across the total trade area is
currently estimated at 94,221 sq.m. This would equate to a provision of around 0.68 sq.m per person,
which is lower than the typical benchmarks despite the inclusion of additional tenant categories.
iii. Over the period to 2031, the total trade area population is projected to increase by 17,600 to 155,340.
If the large format retail and non-retail showroom floorspace demand per person is recorded at 1.0
sq.m, this would lead to an overall demand of large format retail floorspace of 155,340 sq.m by 2031,
an increase of 17,600 sq.m on the current demand (refer Table 4.1). If there were to be no increases in
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the current supply of large format retail floorspace, this would lead to excess demand of around 61,119
sq.m of large format retail and non-retail showroom floorspace.
iv. Future population growth is likely to attract of families to the area. Family orientated households are
more likely to invest in their properties and generally spend a higher proportion of their income on large
format retail products.
5.2. Large Format Retail Trends
i. Large format retailing has evolved in recent years in Australia and incorporates bulky goods and retail
showroom uses. Large format retailing includes categories such as automotive parts, accessories,
repairs and services, camping, outdoor and recreation goods, electric, light fittings, pet supplies, food
and window coverings, furniture, bedding, furnishings, fabric, manchester and homewares, household
appliances, household electrical goods and home entertainment goods, party supplies, swimming
pools, office equipment and supplies, baby and children’s play equipment and accessories, hardware
and landscape garden supplies etc.
ii. The development of large format retail/bulky goods in Australia has been evolving over time. Initially,
bulky goods tenants preferred to locate in free-standing facilities along major roads. There has been an
increasing trend for bulky goods to co-locate within one centre or precinct as bulky goods customers
seek to compare products and prices across a range of stores, with all traders benefiting from the
creation of a strong destination.
iii. In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on dedicated homemaker centres, which provide a
broad range of tenants as well as easy accessibility and car parking. In addition, the greater
convenience and amenity for customers has also contributed to an increase in the development of large
format/bulky goods centres in Australia
iv. Large format retail/bulky goods centres typically serve broad geographic trade areas due to the nature
of bulky goods which tend to be purchased by a large number of people on an infrequent basis. In
recent times, the tenants looking to locate in bulky goods/large format areas have expanded. This is
due to retail tenants (e.g. toy and camping equipment stores, etc.), trading in a similar manner, where
they attract low market shares across broad regions on an infrequent basis. Consequently, ‘retail
showroom’ tenants are suited to locations similar to bulky goods centres requiring frontage to a major
road with easy access.
v. Large format retail/bulky goods centres/precincts are typically located in extremely high profile, main
road locations and, therefore, receive excellent exposure to passing traffic and are easily accessible
from both a local and regional perspective. The co-location of facilities in a single centre/precinct results
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in a benefit to the consumer as well, with customers preferring to cross shop, in order to compare prices
and products more easily. This has been an increasing trend within the Australian retail environment.
5.3. Location
i. Overall, the proposed Noosa Marketplace site enjoys a high-profile location within the Noosa Business
Centre precinct and will benefit from its co-location with the existing Noosa Civic retail precinct and
other showroom facilities along Eenie Creek Road.
ii. The proposed development will also be well located to serve the Noosa urban area given the critical
mass of retail, large format/showroom and industrial uses throughout the precinct. Accessibility to the
site is excellent, reflecting convenient ingress and egress off Eenie Creek Road and Hoffman Drive and
a significant provision of at-grade parking.
iii. Currently, vacant Industrial-zoned land is largely located in backstreet, internalised locations, while
Noosa Business Centre land is abundant and forms a natural extension of Noosa Civic, including the
subject site.
iv. Prospective large format retail and non-retail showroom tenants that are currently (and will be
increasingly) demanded by the total trade area population are more likely to establish premises within
high profile precincts or retail strips such as the subject site, as compared with internal, low-exposure
sites such as the limited vacant parcels of Industry zoned land.
v. There are limited available and appropriately zoned sites within the region with the site attributes
typically required by large format retailers (e.g. high-profile location with excellent accessibility, large
enough to accommodate a critical mass of tenants to create destinational appeal etc.). The subject site
represents an ideal location for a large format retail/showroom centre to address to existing undersupply
of such facilities within the region. Further, the subject site is a natural extension of the existing Noosa
Civic retail precinct.
vi. The Noosa Business Centre site encompasses 40.1 ha of land, of which 66% is currently vacant or
undeveloped. As such, other employment-type uses which do not require the same attributes as large
format retailer (i.e. high-profile site, excellent accessibility etc.), can be accommodated elsewhere within
Noosa Business Centre.
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5.4. Sales Impacts
i. The proposed development will complement the existing retail facilities within Noosa and would provide
the Noosa population with large format retail and showroom facilities of more than 11,000 sq.m.
ii. The proposed development is projected to achieve sales of around $3,500 per sq.m in 2021 (constant
2018 dollars and including GST), or around $30.7 million. Based on this trading level, the average
impact on surrounding large format retail stores would be in the order of 6.5% in 2021 (based on the
assumption of a redirection of sales from existing trade area facilities only), and therefore would not
affect the viability or continued operation of any store. The majority of sales will come from market
growth.
iii. However, it is unlikely that the development would impact surrounding facilities to the degree outlined
above given it would likely comprise new traders to the locality and as such, would not provide a direct
replication of any existing tenant or facility within the immediate region. Consequently, any impact on
surrounding facilities would be minimal.
xvii. This analysis assumes that all impacts resulting from the proposed development will be on existing
retailers within the total trade area and does not assume that the proposed development will reduce the
amount of spending currently escaping the trade area. In reality, given that anchor tenants which are
not currently provided within the trade area will be targeted, a proportion of sales generated by the
proposed development will result from the redirection of spending from retailers beyond the total trade
area. Consequently, any impact on surrounding facilities would be below 6.5% and minimal. Further,
growth in population and large format retail spending within the total trade area will ameliorate any
impacts on existing retailers.
iv. The proposed development would also serve to strengthen Noosa as a retail and showroom destination,
and not would not impact on the role served by major facilities such as Noosa Civic or Sunshine Plaza
at Maroochydore, which contain a large non-food component including apparel and discount
department store shopping.
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5.5. Net Community Benefits
i. It is the conclusion of this report that a substantial net community benefit will result from the development
of the proposed Noosa showroom facilities. Offsetting the trading impacts on some existing facilities,
there are very substantial positive impacts including the following:
‒ Additional large format retail and non-retail showroom tenants would provide additional choice,
convenience and price competition to the consumer.
‒ An incubator precinct based on local needs sand competitive strengths, would drive sustainable
economic growth and job creation in the region.
‒ The addition of the proposed development will help fulfil the existing demand for large format
retail and non-retail showroom floorspace.
‒ The creation of additional employment which will result from the project, both during the
construction period, and more importantly, on an ongoing basis once the development is
completed and operational. Some 340 permanent positions are likely to result from the
proposed development, generating a further 323 jobs within the broader community. In addition,
some 417 additional jobs are likely to be created, both directly and indirectly, from the
construction stage.
‒ Reduced travel times, given the nearest significant provision of large format retail and
showroom facilities beyond the total trade area are provided at Maroochydore, more than a 70
km round trip from Noosa. The proposed development will likely reduce escape expenditure to
Maroochydore and as such, reduce the number and length of trips required to shop at a full-line
large format retail centre.
ii. It is concluded that the combination of the substantial positive economic impacts serves to more than
offset the trading impacts that could be anticipated for a small number of the existing stores in the
region. Further, the impacts would not threaten the viability of any of these traders or showrooms.
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02 8248Marketplace, Noosa 0100 Queensland Level 6, 56 Pitt Street 72 Economic Impact Assessment Sydney NSW 2000 May 2019 Locationiq.com.au