Economic Needs Analysis Report · MCU15/0122

APPENDIX 1 tabulates the specialist workforce of Australia by State, highlighting the need for
many specialties to service very large geographical areas.

5.3     DEMAND FOR THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT
This section of the report outlines the demand for additional medical facilities within the
Catchment Area. Non-clinical and allied health practitioners such as physiotherapists,
chiropractors and psychologists have been excluded from this analysis however it is
recognised that these practitioners would also create demand for facilities such as the
proposed development.

TABLE 5.3 below quantifies the approximated scale of demand for primary care clinicians in
the Catchment Area based on the area’s approximate threshold for these services as at 2013
and population projections to 2031. These figures were calculated by adopting the 2013 AIHW
‘major cities’ provision rate of 106 full time equivalent (FTE) GPs per 100,000 residents and
155 specialists per 100,000 residents. No allowance has been made for the ageing population
which would have a heightened propensity for access to GPs and specialist medical services.

               TABLE 5.3: Scale of Demand for Clinicians in the Trade Area
                           Catchment
                              Area             GPs*              Specialists*
                           Population
            2011             51,038              54                  79
            2016             54,620              58                  85
            2021             58,540              62                  91
            2026             59,600              63                  92
            2031             61,030              65                  95
                        Source: AIHW and Urban Economics’ estimates and projections
                        *All figures are in terms of full time workload equivalents.

As at 2016, there is estimated to be a demand for 58 FTE GPs and 85 specialists to cater for
the needs and demands of the residents of the Catchment Area. The Catchment Area
community exhibits an older population with a high proportion of persons aged over 65. As
at July 2015, the Catchment Area comprised 86 GPs or an estimated 71 full-time equivalent
of GPs.

There is an estimated demand for 85 FTE specialist practitioners across various fields and sub-
specialties within the Catchment area in 2016. Without specifically identifying the health
priorities of the Catchment Area population, the aged population would have a particular
propensity for specialties such as cardiology, ophthalmology, paediatrics, geriatrics and
radiology. Of the current Catchment Area’s provision of 58 recognised specialists, a significant
proportion are part-time or VMOs, equating to a FTE equivalent of only 38 specialists, a
shortfall of some 47 clinicians in 2016.

This assumes an average provision of health care providers only. However, it is considered
that the demographic and health profile characteristics of the Catchment Area would

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