2015-04-07 Item 2 - Attachment 1 - Pre feasibility Study of Electric Bus Routes

It should be noted that, although the models seek to achieve the most accurate figures for
comparison of options that are currently available, an NPC analyses using actual
performance data from the trial will be the most reliable indicator of the long term commercial
viability of an electric bus service for Noosa. This is due to the NPC’s reliance on data from
providers in the present case, who do not have the benefit of experience in operating their
bus on Route 627. Fuel or energy consumption in particular will be highly dependent upon
the bus design specifics and their interaction with the route, drivers and operating conditions
in Noosa. Accordingly, actual results may vary significantly to the estimates generated by the
financial and operational models.

7.2        Financial model
The main cost driver delaying the widespread adoption of electric vehicles in Australia has
been the upfront purchase costs of the technology, particularly the battery technology
relative to diesel alternatives1. As battery technology evolves and increasingly becomes
proven in Australian operating conditions the costs and financial risks associated with the
significant upfront investment in an electric bus is reduced. In the present case, an
alternative financial arrangement to mitigate upfront battery costs might be to arrange for
leasing of batteries from providers as part of the electric bus trial negotiations.
The cost benefits to be found in the operation of electric buses usually manifest in terms of
reduced operating and maintenance costs over the longer term life of the vehicle2. Therefore,
the longer an electric bus is able to be operational, without significant maintenance (e.g.
battery replacement), the more significant these benefits become in terms of the lifetime
costs.

Upfront purchase costs and estimated maintenance and servicing costs were calculated in
the financial model based on data received from manufacturers in response to the EOI. The
results of the NPC on these data are tabulated in Table 9. These costs were discounted (at
7%) for ease of comparison. Upfront purchase costs include capitalised costs of necessary
infrastructure installation for each bus (e.g. two charging stations).
BYD was found to be the cheapest upfront purchase option (Optare +12%) but this was only
after accounting for additional battery capacity (provided as an option for Optare).
Table 9           Breakdown of Upfront Purchase Costs - 2014

Upfront purchase                     Optare                         BYD
costs
Bus                                $595,000                     $625,000
Additional Battery                 $70,000
Costs
Charging station                    $30,000                      $10,000
1
Charging station                    $30,000                      $10,000
2
Charging station                     $5,500                       $5,500
1 - Install
Charging station                     $5,500                       $5,500
2- Install
TOTAL                              $736,000                     $656,000
Note:- *Additional battery cost and charging station installs assumed from Optare costs due to non-provision of cost data


1
 Forecast Uptake and Economic Evaluation of Electric Vehicles in Victoria, AECOM, 6 May 2011
2
 Assessment of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies for the Victorian bus fleet, a discussion paper, Rare
Consulting Pty Ltd, January 2011




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