2015-04-07 Item 2 - Attachment 1 - Pre feasibility Study of Electric Bus Routes

NPC maintenance and servicing costs over the investment horizon were cheapest for Optare
compared BYD (+15%) - see Table 10.
In summary, the final comparative costs provided by the financial model indicated that the
Optare Solo 10M is likely to be the most cost effective option to run in terms of maintenance
and servicing and BYD the best choice in terms of upfront purchase costs.
Table 10 Upfront Purchase Costs and Estimated Maintenance and
         Servicing1- 2014

Provider                    Model                   Upfront Purchase          Estimated Maintenance
                                                    Cost                      & Servicing Costs


Optare                      Solo                    $736,000                  $79,674

BYD                         E Bus                   $656,000                  $91,338


Estimated direct and indirect electricity costs were calculated in the financial model, based
on input data provided by bus manufacturers, these data are tabulated in Table 11. Bottom
of the range fuel efficiency was equivalent for both Optare and BYD buses. Cost per
kilometre for all options was calculated as $0.09 over the 15 year investment horizon. As
such, the derived nature of indirect electricity costs results in an equal first ranking against
these cost criteria for Optare with BYD only slightly behind. In the absence of actual
performance data and given the marginal differences in fuel efficiency between all three
buses, it was surmised that fuel efficiency is not a good basis to distinguish these electric
bus options.
Table 11 Estimated Direct and Indirect Electricity Costs2 - 2014

Provider                Model               Estimated direct          Estimated direct
                                            and indirect              and indirect
                                            electricity costs         electricity
                                                                      costs/km
Optare                  Solo                $168,5733                 $0.09/km

BYD                     E Bus               $179,811                  $0.09/km


Over the investment horizon of 15 years, the total NPC discounted costs for the Optare
electric bus came to an estimated -$624,849 and -$1,074,230 for BYD. The total NPC
discounted cost per kilometre came to -$0.33 for Optare and -$0.56 for BYD, respectively.
As shown in Table 12 below, the cost analysis indicates that the Optare solution to be lower
from a total NPC discounted cost and cost per kilometre standpoint. This outcome is due
mainly to the extended operational life of the Optare with a stated operational life of 25 years
as against the BYD at 15 years. It should be noted however, the stated operational life of
each bus is proposed by the manufacturer and has yet to be tested under operating
conditions in Noosa.
This NPC assessment is made on the basis of manufacturer inputs and the best available
data provided to date. As costs are assessed over the 15 year horizon, this assessment
provides some degree of comfort if the decision is made to extend the operation of the
chosen bus beyond the end of the trial period. However, as noted above, these estimates
are indicative only and the best measure of the commercial viability of running an electric

1
    Over a common investment horizon of 15 years.
2
    Over a common investment horizon of 15 years.
3
    Energy consumption may increase with additional battery due to additional battery weight.




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