2015-04-07 Item 2 - Attachment 1 - Pre feasibility Study of Electric Bus Routes

   Olev (through Australian Electric Infrastructure Transport (AEIT) with an office located in
   Brisbane, Queensland. AEIT is a Brisbane based company established in 2012 to
   commercialise the Olev electric vehicles in Australia)
A Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) approach has been used to inform the selection of the
preferred electric bus manufacturer. The MCA results were presented at a workshop with
Council/TransLink on the 18 September 2014 and it was decided that the top two (2)
manufacturers (i.e. Optare and BYD) would be invited through an expression of interest
(EOI) to participate in a 6 month trial. More detailed information was gathered through the
EOI process to select a preferred manufacturer.
The trial is about assessing the technology and discovering the “actual” capability and
performance of the electric bus under local conditions in Noosa. If the trial is found to be
successful, decisions can be made to consider implementing the electric bus in full.
The cost to run the trial is estimated to be $452,700 for Optare and $407,200 for BYD. This
is the net cost after the cost of operating the standard two (2) diesel buses on Route 627 is
considered.
The findings show that the trial would cost more than the current cost to operate the two (2)
diesel buses on Route 627. This is primarily because of the cost incurred in providing the fill-
in and standby diesel buses and driver relief trips to ensure service reliability. To match the
performance of the two (2) diesel bus, inductive charging and/or supercharging technology
en-route is likely to be required. However, inductive charging and/or supercharging
technology are yet to be proven and too costly to implement for the trial.
An initial capital investment will be required to “ground truth” the technology. It is
recommended that both Optare and BYD are considered for the trial. Optare has the
advantage of scale and expertise in the manufacturing of buses with a strong and reputable
international brand, and have a presence in Australia. BYD are global leaders in the
development of battery technology and battery management systems (BMS). Their battery
technology has shown a continuous improvement. The new generation of batteries is already
exceeding the older batteries in capacity, which is currently installed in buses around the
world.
A Strategic Outline Case (SOC) has been developed to identify and compare the indicative
longer term costs of the recommended electric bus options which are likely to proceed to a
live trial, together with consideration of potential funding sources.
A financial model has been designed to provide an indicative cost comparison of Optare and
BYD buses over a 15 year investment horizon. It is designed to evaluate and compare the
upfront purchase costs of a single bus and the anticipated energy and maintenance costs on
a ‘like-for-like’ basis.
An operational model has been developed to compare the indicative costs of running the
selected electric bus options (Optare and BYD) as a fleet on Route 627 against the indicative
costs of running the current Sunbus diesel buses. The time period for the operational model
is 10 years (based on TransLink’s initial leasing period) which allows for a longer term
operational comparison of the current Sunbus diesel bus with both electric bus models.

Financial model results
Over the investment horizon of 15 years, the BYD bus has been found to be the cheapest
in terms of upfront purchase costs (Optare +12%). However, the Optare Solo 10M is
likely to be the most cost effective option to run in terms of maintenance and servicing.
There are marginal differences in fuel efficiency between the two buses, it was
surmised that fuel efficiency is not a good basis to distinguish electric bus options.



58 | GHD | Proposal for Noosa Council & TransLink Division - Planning Report