MCU14/0106 Appendix K - Commercial Needs Assessment

Population Forecasts, 2007-2031
NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA                                                                                      TABLE 5.2
                                          1                                              2
                                 Actual                                       Forecast
                          2007                  2013       2016            2021          2026               2031
Primary                 20,650                22,090     22,830          23,660        23,920             24,340
Secondary:
North East              10,600                11,050     11,230          11,480          11,570           11,670
South East              16,130                18,710     19,890          21,500          21,920           22,350
South                    8,510                11,100     12,420          15,010          16,310           17,680
North West              15,160                16,730     17,290          18,270          18,740           19,510
Total Secondary         50,400                57,590     60,830          66,250          68,540           71,210
Main Trade Area         71,050                79,680     83,660          89,910          92,450           95,550
                                                            Annual Population Growth (no.)
                                          2007-13      2013-16         2016-21          2021-26         2026-31
Primary                                      240          247             166               52              84
Secondary:
North East                                        75         60              50                18             20
South East                                       430        393             322                84             86
South                                            432        440             518               260            274
North West                                       262        187             196                94            154
Total Secondary                                1,198      1,080           1,084               458            534
Main Trade Area                                1,438      1,327           1,250               508            620
                                                           Annual Population Growth (%)
                                          2007-13      2013-16      2016-21       2021-26               2026-31
Primary:                                     1.1%         1.1%         0.7%           0.2%                 0.3%
Secondary:
North East                                     0.7%       0.5%             0.4%              0.2%           0.2%
South East                                     2.5%       2.1%             1.6%              0.4%           0.4%
South                                          4.5%       3.8%             3.9%              1.7%           1.6%
North West                                     1.7%       1.1%             1.1%              0.5%           0.8%
Total Secondary                                2.2%       1.8%             1.7%              0.7%           0.8%
Main Trade Area                                1.9%       1.6%             1.5%              0.6%           0.7%
1. As at June, ERP for 2007 and 2013 based on SA1 boundaries
2. Forecast Queensland Population based on ABS population projections (3222.0), Series B
Source : ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, Electronic Delivery (3218.0.55.001) ;
           ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (3101.0) ;
           ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (3222.0) Series B
           Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury,
           local government area projections (medium series) 2011 to 2036 ; Urbis




The proportion of the Sunshine Coast Region which has been attributed to the catchment area in the past
and also the future is displayed below in Table 5.3. In the period 2001 to 2011, the catchment area
accounted for 24%-25% of the total population in the Sunshine Coast Region, equating to around 21%-
22% of total growth.

Going forward, growth in the Sunshine Coast Region is expected to be focussed in areas such as
Caloundra South, Kawana and Sippy Downs. Based on our forecasts, by the 2021- 2031 period, the
catchment area is only anticipated to account for, on average, 6.9% of the total population growth
forecast for the Sunshine Coast Region (refer Table 5.4).




32   COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
                                                                                                                             URBIS
                                                                           REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL