MCU14/0106 Appendix K - Commercial Needs Assessment

Noosa Civic currently accounts for around 15% of the supply of office floor space in the catchment. Going
forward the Shire Business Centre (including Noosa Civic) is intended to be a significant location for office
floor space in the Shire. In respect of this we anticipate that Noosa Civic will attract a higher share of the
office floor space demand in the catchment that it currently captures. Subsequently we have applied a
range of market shares from 27%-50% that Noosa Civic may achieve of future office floor space
development in the catchment area.

Based on this approach it is estimated that demand for office floor space at Noosa Civic will range
between 4,300 sq.m and 8,000 sq.m between 2013 and 2031.


6.3            FLOORSPACE DEMAND – FLOOR SPACE TO POPULATION RATIO
               APPROACH
The second approach to estimating the demand for office floor space at Noosa Civic is based on the ratio
between the catchment area’s population and the provision of office floor space. This approach assumes
that the market is at a point of equilibrium with demand equalling supply, which we note may not
necessarily be the case. This approach applies the following assumptions and factors:

    The current population for the Noosa Civic catchment is estimated to be 79,680 persons.

    The current occupied office floor space in the catchment is approximately 22,590 sq.m.

    Based on the above two figures, the ratio of population to office floor space is 0.28 sq.m.

    An ongoing vacancy rate of 12.3%.

    Market share of the estimated future Noosa Civic catchment office space demand ranging from 27%
     to 50%.


Sunshine Coast Commercial Office Space
FORECAST POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH – TO 2031                                                                                                        TABLE 6.3

                                                                                                                  Forecast                               Total Growth
                                                                                     2013          2016         2021    2026               2031            2013-31

Noosa Civic Catchment Population                                                    79,680       83,660        89,910       92,450        95,550            15,870
Commercial Space Demand 1                                                           22,589       23,717        25,489       26,209        27,088
Commercial space to Population Rate                                                  0.28          0.28          0.28         0.28          0.28
Demand Increase (5 yr intervals)                                                                  1,128         1,772         720           879
Net Additional Demand (Cumulative)                                                   0 m²       1,128 m² 2,900 m² 3,620 m² 4,499 m²
Assumed Vacancy Rate (%)                                                                          12.3%        12.3%         12.3%        12.3%
Assumed Vacant Space                                                                             139 m²        357 m²       445 m²        553 m²
Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) - Include Vacancy rate                            0 m²       1,267 m² 3,257 m² 4,066 m² 5,052 m²                         5,052 m²

Noosa Civic Centre Estimated Proportion                                              27%           27%          27%           27%          27%               27%
Noosa Civic Centre Net Additional Demand (Cumulative)                                0 m²        342 m²        879 m² 1,098 m² 1,364 m²                     1,364 m²

Noosa Civic Centre Estimated Proportion                                              50%           50%          50%           50%          50%               50%
Noosa Civic Centre Net Additional Demand (Cumulative)                                0 m²        634 m² 1,628 m² 2,033 m² 2,526 m²                          2,526 m²
1. Represents o ccupied co mmercial o ffice space
So urce : A B S; Demo graphy and P lanning, Office o f Eco no mic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury; SLA pro jectio ns (medium series); Urbis


Applying the commercial office floor space ratio to the forecast population growth for the Noosa Civic
catchment area will result in an estimated demand for office floor space for the catchment of 5,050 sq.m
over the period from 2013 to 2031.

When the Noosa Civic market shares are applied to this office floor space demand estimate, this
generates an office floor space demand range for Noosa Civic over the period from 2013 to 2031 of 1,360
sq.m to 2,530 sq.m of core commercial office space.




URBIS
REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL                                                   NOOSA CIVIC OFFICE FLOOR SPACE DEMAND ASSESSMENT             41