MCU14/0106 Appendix K - Commercial Needs Assessment

    7            Key Findings and Conclusion

    7.1          KEY FINDINGS
    The demand for commercial office floor space within the Noosa Civic has been assessed through two
    approaches, which are outlined in the following points.

          Market share approach (Method 1) – Provides an estimate of the white collar employment and floor
           space growth for the Sunshine Coast region and the potential market share that Noosa Civic could
           capture.

          Floor space to population ratio approach (Method 2) – Provides an estimate of the current
           benchmark of commercial office floor space to resident population in the Noosa Civic catchment area.
           It then applies this benchmark to future population growth to calculate the additional commercial
           office floor space demand in the Noosa Civic catchment area.

    The key assumptions used in the commercial office demand study are as follows:

        FACTOR                        ASSUMPTION

        Population                   Sunshine Coast Population has been based on Estimated Resident Population (ERP)
                                     forecasts generated by the Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR) for the
                                     local government area. Essentially, the base case applies a ‘medium’ Estimated
                                     Resident Population (ERP) forecast generated by the Office of Economic and Statistical
                                     Research (OESR) for the local government area.

       Age Groups                   The proportion of population over the age of 15 is based on trending historical ABS
                                     Census Data for the local government area.

       Labour Force Participation The Labour Force Participation rate is based on trending historical ABS Census Data
        Rate (Sunshine Coast)      for the local government area. and whilst the Maroochydore Town Centre and other
                                   similar projects on the Coast will bring a younger workforce, there is still a large and
                                   aging population. In summary, it is assumed this new workforce will simply keep the
                                   average participation rate at its status quo.

       Jobs to Labour Force         The Jobs to Labour Force Ratio is based on trending historical ABS Census and
        Ratio                        Labour Force data for the local government area.


       Percentage of White Collar The percentage of white collar commercial employees is based on trending historical
        Employees                  ABS Census and Labour Force data for the local government area. White collar
                                   employment refers to white collar workers who demand commercial floor space only.
                                   Other white collar jobs, such as teachers, have been excluded from the count.

       White Collar Floorspace      White collar floor space per job has been derived from Australian Bureau of Statistics
                                     Journey to Work (JTW) data, in conjunction with the amount of commercial office floor
                                     space on the Sunshine Coast.

       Current Commercial Office The quantum of commercial office floorspace has been estimated based on the Urbis
        Floor space and Vacancy Land Use Survey conducted in July 2014. This estimate only takes into account core
                                  commercial office space tenants, which demand commercial office floor space only.
        Rates
                                     Current vacancy rate of 12.6% per cent of the Noosa Civic catchment area is estimated
                                     based on the Urbis Land Use Survey. The long term vacancy rate is likely to be on
                                     average 12.3 per cent based on the PCA market Benchmark (July 14).

       Market Share                 A 27 per cent market share for Noosa Civic to the catchment area, as estimated based
                                     on an increase on the current office space market share that Noosa Civic achieves of its
                                     catchment. Given that the Noosa Shire Business Centre is the highest order centre, it is
                                     expected that this market share could in fact increase to as high as 50% of the total




    42      KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION
                                                                                                                                 URBIS
                                                                               REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL