MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Additional Supportable Retail Floorspace, 2014-31
NOOSA CIVIC TRADE AREA                                                                                                                          TABLE 7.5
                                                                          2014               2016                2021                2026       2031
Total Retail Market ($2014M)
Food                                                                     590.4              621.9               705.1               767.6      836.9
Non-Food                                                                 484.5              525.8               641.1               744.8      861.5
Total                                                                 1,074.9            1,147.7             1,346.2             1,512.4      1,698.4
                                 1
Assumed ATL ($/sq.m)
Food (@ $9,500 per sq.m)                                                 9,500              9,614               9,906             10,207      10,517
Non-Food (@ $4,300 per sq.m)                                             4,300              4,352               4,484               4,620      4,760

Supportable GLA (sq.m)
Food                                                                   62,100             64,700              71,200              75,200      79,600
Non-Food                                                             112,700            120,800             143,000             161,200      181,000
Total                                                                174,800            185,500             214,200             236,400      260,600
                                           2
Total Retail Floorspace Supply                                         94,110             94,110              94,110              94,110      94,110
Retail Floorspace Surplus/(Deficiency)                               (80,690)           (91,390)          (120,090)           (142,290)     (166,490)
No te: Fo o d includes Fo o d Retail and Fo o d Catering, Ho useho ld Go o ds include Ho mewares and Other No n-Fo o d includes A pparel,
General, Leisure and Retail Services
1. A TL gro wth o f 0.6% per annum
2. Supply serving No o sa Civic trade area resident market
So urce: Urbis




7.5              NOOSA CIVIC TURNOVER AND MARKET SHARE POTENTIAL
This section provides a high level estimate of forecast turnover, trading levels and market shares, on the
basis that the proposed development scheme outlined in Section 2.5 proceeds as proposed. For the
purposes of this assessment, and the impact assessment which follows, we have assumed that the
development would be completed by mid-2017, resulting in the financial year 2017/18 being the first full
year of operation.

7.5.1            INDICATIVE TRADING LEVELS
The following indicative trading levels for the proposed expansion are based on industry benchmarks, and
provide an indication of the trading potential of the retail component assuming that the centre trades at an
industry average level. Unless otherwise stated, forecast turnover is stated in $2014 and inclusive of
GST.

The estimated turnover and indicative trading levels for the proposed expansion of Noosa Civic are
outlined in Table 7.6 following.




104       ASSESSMENT OF NEED AND DEMAND
                                                                                                                                                           URBIS
                                                                                                    NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL