MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

For the purposes of this study the adopted ATLs for each type of retail use in 2014 are as follows:

    Food                                   $9,500 per sq.m

    Non-Food                               $4,300 per sq.m

On average, therefore, we have assumed an average trading level across all retail categories relevant to
the Noosa Civic trade area, at the commencement of the forecasting period in 2014, of $6,200 per sq.m.
This is at the high end of the usual range.

In the following analysis we have assumed that a proportion of the ‘real’ growth in retail spending will be
taken up by improved retailer productivity over time. We have allocated a growth rate of 0.6% per annum
for productivity growth. This is reflected in Table 7.5 which shows ATLs increasing over time. In effect we
have quarantined productivity growth from our assessment of future retail floorspace requirements using
this approach.

By applying the above ATLs to the forecast growth in the retail market, Table 7.4 provides our estimates
of the additional retail floorspace needed by residents of the Noosa Civic trade area over the forecast
period. We again note that some of this demand will be accounted for by centres and stores outside the
trade area.

Retail spending growth is estimated to generate demand for an additional 39,400 sq.m of retail floorspace
by 2021, and by 2031, the additional $350 million in retail spending has the potential to generate demand
for an additional 85,800 sq.m of retail floorspace. This includes 17,500 sq.m of food floorspace and
68,300 sq.m of non-food retail floorspace.

Given that the proposed expansion of Noosa Civic, would add 21,980 sq.m of retail floorspace to the
trade area, it is apparent that this will only satisfy approximately 18% of the retail floorspace deficiency in
2021. There would still be a significant level of unsatisfied demand within the trade area, and a
continuation of the high level of escape spending.

This future demand is additional to the retail floorspace already provided within the Noosa Civic trade
area and does not account for the current under supply. In other words there is a large gap in the market
now, and this will increase over the forecast period. Once again it is readily apparent that the subject
development proposal at Noosa Civic will go some way towards satisfying this need.

Given the increasing need for additional retail facilities throughout the trade area, over time, there will also
be a need for various facilities and services that are well aligned to broadly based, or multipurpose
Activity Centres but which are classified as non-retail uses. Such uses include personal and business
services, community services, and entertainment and leisure activities of a high intensity nature.




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                     ASSESSMENT OF NEED AND DEMAND   103