MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Impact on MTA Postcodes, Method 1
CENTRE TURNOVER FORECASTS, $2014M INC. GST                                                                                      TABLE E2

                                                4567         4566             4565      4563     4573  4568    4562                    Total
                                               Noosa       Noosa-             Tew-    Cooroy Coolum/ Pomona Eumundi
                                               Heads          ville           antin          Peregian
Current Market Share                             9.2%       19.9%             5.0%     3.6%       12.6%         1.2%        0.7%      52.3%
Estimated Turnover ($M)
Current1                                 (1)      99.1       213.6            54.1      39.2       135.3         12.7         7.9     561.9
         2
Case 1 (no expansion)                    (2)    108.8        242.0            59.5      44.2       155.1         14.1         9.1     632.8
Diversion                                (3)     -10.3        -23.4            -7.1     -3.8         -5.8        -1.1        -0.8      -52.3
Case 2 (expansion)           (4) = (2) + (3)      98.6       218.6            52.4      40.4       149.3         12.9         8.4     580.5
MTA Diversion (%)3           (5) = (3) ÷ (2)    -9.4%        -9.7%       -12.0%        -8.5%       -3.7%       -8.1%       -8.3%      -8.3%
Diversion by Sector ($M)
Primary                                           -4.5        -14.1            -5.1     -0.4         -1.0         0.0        -0.3      -25.5
  Secondary North East                            -3.7          -2.7           -0.1      0.0         -0.2         0.0         0.0        -6.8
  Secondary South East                            -0.3          -0.5            0.0      0.0         -2.2         0.0         0.0        -3.1
  Secondary South                                 -0.5          -1.7           -0.1     -0.6         -2.2         0.0        -0.2        -5.3
  Secondary North West                            -1.2          -4.4           -1.8     -2.7         -0.2        -1.1        -0.2      -11.6
Total Secondary                                   -5.7          -9.3           -2.1     -3.4         -4.8        -1.1        -0.4      -26.8
Main Trade Area                                  -10.3        -23.4            -7.1     -3.8         -5.8        -1.1        -0.8      -52.3
1. Quantium current market shares multiplied by 2014 retail spending market
2. Quantium current market shares multiplied by 2018 retail spending market
3. Relative to case 1 turnover
4. Insufficient data available for postcodes 4569 and 4571.
5. Postcode 4566 excludes Noosa Civic.
Source : Quantium ; Urbis




vi   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                                                                                                              URBIS
                                                                                       NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL