MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

   Column 3 provides the estimated turnover level for each centre in 2018 after the impact from the
    Noosa Civic expansion. As described previously the methodology is as follows:

        The assessment of impacts on specific retail centres is firstly based on the estimates of the likely
         distribution of trade for each centre from each of the trade area sectors.

        These estimates, in turn, enable the calculation of market shares for each centre from each of the
         trade area sectors.

        The estimated market shares then form the basis by which the impact of the proposed retail
         development is redistributed, on a pro-rata basis, from all other centres and channels used by
         trade area residents for their retail needs.

   Column 4 provides an estimate of the difference between each centre’s current estimated turnover in
    2014 and forecast turnover post the Noosa Civic expansion in 2018. In the majority of the cases the
    outcome is positive due to market growth, but the effect of the expansion is greater on some centres
    than on others.

   Column 5 presents the estimated reduction in turnover from each centre in 2018 following the
    proposed expansion of Noosa Civic, compared with the turnover volume each centre would have
    been estimated to achieve in that year in the absence of the proposed development (i.e. Case 1 or
    status quo). This is our estimate of the one off dollar impact of the Noosa Civic expansion in the first
    full year of trading.

   Column 6 expresses the change in each centre’s anticipated turnover level post the proposed
    development, relative to the 2014 turnover level in percentage terms. It represents the turnover
    change for each centre following the proposed expansion at Noosa Civic.

   Column 7 compares the turnover level of each centre following the proposed expansion with the
    turnover level that would otherwise have been achieved in 2018, expressed in percentage terms.

   Rows at the bottom of the tables summarise the total decrease in turnover across the competing
    centres listed in the table as a result of the Noosa Civic expansion, and the turnover decrease which
    is attributed to ‘other centres’, various alternative locations and channels. The other centres not listed
    in these tables include centres and stores within and outside the trade area that are not detailed in
    the ‘selected centres’ list. These include:

        small supermarkets, convenience stores, taverns and restaurants in various locations within the
         trade area;

        retail facilities located outside the trade area, including Brisbane but excluding those accounted
         for in Nambour and Maroochydore; and

        online and overseas retailers. Although we note that around 75% of online transactions are
         currently fulfilled by bricks and mortar stores throughout Australia, it is not possible to isolate
         specific locations. In any event we would expect a very low level of online fulfilment in the Noosa
         area at the present time.




116     ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS
                                                                                                                        URBIS
                                                                 NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL