MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Turnover Impacts
BY TRADE AREA POSTCODES, 2018 ($2014M INC GST)                                                                             TABLE 8.4
                                               4567          4566             4565   4563     4573      4568       4562       Total
Current Market Share                           9.2%        19.9%              5.0%   3.6%    12.6%      1.2%       0.7%      52.3%
Estimated Turnover ($M)
Current1                                        99.1        213.6             54.1    39.2   135.3       12.7        7.9      561.9
Case 12                                       108.8         242.0             59.5    44.2   155.1       14.1        9.1      632.8
Diversion                                      -10.3         -23.4            -7.1    -3.8    -5.8       -1.1       -0.8      -52.3
Case 2                                          98.6        218.6             52.4    40.4   149.3       12.9        8.4      580.5
Main Trade Area Diversion (%)3                -9.4%         -9.7%       -12.0%       -8.5%   -3.7%     -8.1%      -8.3%       -8.3%
Diversion by Sector ($M)
Primary                                         -4.5         -14.1            -5.1    -0.4    -1.0        0.0       -0.3      -25.5
    Secondary North East                        -3.7          -2.7            -0.1     0.0    -0.2        0.0        0.0       -6.8
    Secondary South East                        -0.3          -0.5             0.0     0.0    -2.2        0.0        0.0       -3.1
    Secondary South                             -0.5          -1.7            -0.1    -0.6    -2.2        0.0       -0.2       -5.3
    Secondary North West                        -1.2          -4.4            -1.8    -2.7    -0.2       -1.1       -0.2      -11.6
Total Secondary                                 -5.7          -9.3            -2.1    -3.4    -4.8       -1.1       -0.4      -26.8
Main Trade Area                                -10.3         -23.4            -7.1    -3.8    -5.8       -1.1       -0.8      -52.3
1. Quantium current market shares multiplied by 2014 retail spending market
2. Quantium current market shares multiplied by 2018 retail spending market
3. Relative to case 1 turnover
4. Insufficient data available for postcodes 4569 and 4571.
4. Postcode 4566 excludes Noosa Civic.
Source : Quantium ; Urbis



8.4.2        METHOD 2 – TURNOVER ALLOCATION APPROACH
An alternative and more detailed method (Method 2) of measuring the impacts on competitive centres is
the ’turnover allocation approach‘.

In this approach, we have assessed the impacts on the retail component of specific centres, within and
outside of the trade area, based on estimates of the likely distribution of trade for each centre, including
the component of turnover that originates from beyond the trade area (i.e. tourists etc). This results in
estimates of the degree to which various shopping locations within and beyond the trade area are used
for shopping by trade area residents, broken down into the seven product groups.

In turn these estimates form the basis by which the impact of the proposed development is redistributed
from all other centres currently used by residents of the trade area for various needs. Although ultimately
aggregated in the following analysis, this approach takes into account the fact that a very high level of
apparel spending, for example, is currently directed to external locations, whereas food and convenience
spending tends to be more localised.

Table 8.5 summarises the estimated retail turnover change which is expected for each key centre in
2018. A guide to the information in the table is outlined as follows.

    Column (1) provides an estimate of the 2014 turnover level for each of the relevant centres as at June
     2014. This information (and corresponding ATLs) is referred to previously in Table 4.6 of Section 4.
     This takes into account the composition and estimated performance of each component of each
     centre (i.e. those with a high proportion of space occupied by major supermarkets would be expected
     to trade at a much higher level per square metre than others).

    Column (2) provides an estimate of the turnover level that could be achieved by each centre in 2018 if
     the Noosa Civic expansion does not proceed. This scenario assumes that market growth in each
     sector is as previously indicated, and is the Case 1, status quo, position of each centre in the opening
     year of the proposed development.




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                                        ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS   115