MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Main Trade Area Resident Spending Destinations
BY SUBURB                                                                                                  CHART 8.1
 20%
 18%
 16%
 14%
 12%
 10%
  8%
  6%
  4%
  2%
  0%
               Peregian Springs




               Toowoomba City
               Unknown Suburb




               Unknown Suburb




               Unknown Suburb
               Unknown Suburb




               Unknown Suburb




               Unknown Suburb
                     Forest Glen




                         Doonan




                           Milton
                          Birtinya




                       Carindale
                   Noosa Heads




                     Broadbeach
          International Leakage




                         Warana


                         Yandina
                         Buddina




                   Slacks Creek

                Pacific Paradise
                      Melbourne




                     Eagle Farm




                      Mango Hill
                  Sunrise Beach



                        Minyama




                         Mackay




                      Caboolture




                       Spring Hill
                      Paddington

                           Dalby
                     North Lakes
                        Tewantin




                          Robina




                 South Brisbane
              Gladstone Central
                       Noosaville




                         Pomona

                   Brisbane City




                Fortitude Valley



                       Caloundra




                     Kunda Park




                       Morayfield




                       Newstead
       Noosa Civic Market Share
                  Maroochydore

               Online Leakage*




                      Cairns City




                       Southport




                            Bli Bli
                 Coolum Beach




                  Mount Coolum


                      Chermside




                          Sydney
                     Mooloolaba
                        Eumundi
                        Marcoola




                        Toowong




                          Aspley
                          Cooroy




                         Buderim




                   Sippy Downs




                        Montville




               Surfers Paradise

                       Capalaba
                Peregian Beach
                         Gympie


                         Kawana




                Sunshine Beach




                    Indooroopilly




                       Mudjimba
                        Nambour




                       West End




                Woolloongabba
                       New Farm




                 Biggera Waters
             Bundaberg Central




                      Currimundi
Source: Quantium




The following charts illustrate the estimated retail turnover for a selection of the key centres in 2014, and
the Case 1 and Case 2 turnover estimates for 2018. We have also included forecasts for 2021 in order to
gauge the post impact outcome in year 3.

These charts make it clear that the proposed expansion at Noosa Civic will impact centres in the network
in which they operate, but the centres across the network should still grow, relative to 2014 levels, as the
retail spending market exists to support them. They also show that the all centres with the exception of
Tewantin should return to or surpass their pre-impact 2018 turnover levels by 2021.

It is also relevant to note that, in addition to ‘real growth’ all centres should continue to achieve growth at
least in line with inflation. In other words, the actual turnover levels will be much higher than indicated in
this report, assuming price inflation continues.




118     ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS
                                                                                                                          URBIS
                                                                   NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL