MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Impact on Key Centres – Method 2
CENTRE TURNOVER FORECASTS, $2014M INC. GST                                                                                           CHART 8.2
                                   Noosaville*                                                            Noosa Junction
 400                                                                     400
 350                                       +5.1%                         350
 300                         334                            337          300
                  291                       306
 250                                                                     250
 200                                                                     200                                        +7.2%
 150                                                                     150                         173                            176
                                                                                      152                            163
 100                                                                     100
    50                                                                    50
    -                                                                      -
                 2014       2018           2018           2021                       2014           2018            2018            2021
                           Case 1         Case 2         Case 2                                    Case 1          Case 2          Case 2


                                  Hastings Street                                                           Tewantin**
 140                                      +15.6%                          140
 120                                                        140           120
                             130            129
 100              111                                                     100                                       +1.7%
    80                                                                     80                          92
                                                                                                                      83             90
    60                                                                     60          82
    40                                                                     40
    20                                                                     20
    -                                                                       -
                 2014       2018           2018           2021                        2014           2018           2018            2021
                           Case 1         Case 2         Case 2                                     Case 1         Case 2          Case 2
                                     Cooroy                                                      Sunshine Beach (Duke Street)
    80                                                                   80
                                          +6.2%
                                                                         70
                             72                             74
    60                                      68                           60
                 64
                                                                         50
    40                                                                   40
                                                                         30                                        +8.7%
    20                                                                   20
                                                                         10          15.3            16.9           16.6            17.9
        0                                                                -
                2014        2018           2018           2021                      2014            2018           2018             2021
                           Case 1         Case 2         Case 2                                    Case 1         Case 2           Case 2

1. Case 1 refers to the scenario with no Noosa Civic expansion and Case 2 refers to the scenario with the Noosa Civic expansion.
2. Percentage change listed refers to percentage change between 2014 estimated turnover and 2018 forecast turnover with
   Noosa Civic expansion.
3. Does not include impact of proposed Sunshine Plaza expansion.
* Includes neighbourhood centres at Weyba Road and Noosa Bushlands, Noosavile Industrial zone and undefined.
** Includes the Noosa Marina and neighbourhood centres at Earl Street and Noosa Outlook.
Source : Urbis


The centre specific analysis, including the impact on the turnover volume of the retail component of each
centre, is presented in Table 8.5.

The main findings are as follows:

           In percentage terms, the highest one-off impacts are expected to occur on centres that share the
            primary trade area with Noosa Civic. These centres include Noosaville (-8.3%) and Tewantin (-9.3%).
            Market growth between 2014 and 2018 would help to offset these one-off impacts and the resulting
            change in turnover would be modest and is expected to be easily absorbed by the affected centres.
            Notably, both centres are expected to witness higher turnover levels in 2018 than current 2014 levels,
            excluding the added effects of inflation over the period.




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                                                 ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS   119