MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

In 2018, the main trade area resident spending market is forecast to increase to $1.224 billion (see Table
5.8), expressed in 2014 dollars (i.e. excluding inflation).

In 2018 under Case 1 (i.e. no expansion), assuming that trade area residents direct the same proportion
of their spending to the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Gold Coast as they did in 2014, the level of
escape spending to these regions would increase to $245.4 million. Assuming a constant average basket
size of $95.10, as the increase in spending levels is exclusive of inflation, main trade area residents
would therefore take an estimated 645,000 trips (low) to 2,581,000 trips (high) to the Sunshine Coast,
Brisbane and the Gold Coast combined in 2018 for retail specific purposes (refer Table 9.2).

Under Case 2 (i.e. Noosa Civic Expansion), the level of main trade area resident spending to the
Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Gold Coast will be reduced, relative to Case 1. This has been
demonstrated previously in Section 8. This will result from trade area residents redirecting their spending,
to some degree, from the escape regions to the newly expanded Noosa Civic. Following the Noosa Civic
expansion, escape spending to the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and the Gold Coast is forecast to reduce
from $245.14 million to $213.7 million, a reduction of $31.7 million in 2018.

The reduction in spending to each specific escape spending location is detailed below in Table 9.2. Once
again assuming a constant average basket size of $95.10 per trip, main trade area residents would take
an estimated 562,000 trips (low) to 2,248,000 trips (high) to the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Gold
Coast combined in 2018 for retail specific purposes.

The estimated reduction in trip numbers to centres in the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Gold Coast is
therefore between 83,000 trips (low) and 333,000 trips (high) annually, as shown in Table 9.2.


Distribution of Main Trade Area Resident Spending
SUNSHINE COAST, BRISBANE AND GOLD COAST, 2018 ($2014 INC GST)                                                              TABLE 9.2
                                                            Case 1                               Case 2                   Reduction
                                                Escape      Number of Trips           Escape     Number of Trips           in Trips
Specific Destination                            Spend        Low    High              Spend       Low    High           Low       High
                                                                                                                        (Case 1 - Case 2)

                                                  ($M)          ('000's)   ('000's)    ($M)       ('000's)   ('000's)        ('000's)

  Maroochydore (Sunshine Plaza)                     98.8            260     1,039       88.7         233          933      27           106
  Nambour (Nambour Plaza)                           15.0              39       158      13.8           36         145        3           13
  Buddina (Kawana Shoppingworld)                      5.5             14         58      4.7           12          49        2            9
  Caloundra (Stockland Caloundra)                     3.2              8         34      2.7             7         28        1            5
  Rest of Sunshine Coast                            49.6            130        522      41.9         110          441      20            81
Sunshine Coast                                     172.1            452     1,810      151.8         399       1,596       53           214
  Brisbane CBD                                      11.6              31       122       9.8           26         103        5           19
  Chermside (Westfield Chermside)                     5.8             15         61      4.9           13          51        2            9
  Rest of Brisbane/Gold Coast                       55.9            147        588      47.3         124          497      23            91
Brisbane/Gold Coast                                 73.3            193        771      62.0         163          652      30           120
Total Sunshine Coast/
                                                   245.4            645     2,581      213.7         562       2,248       83           333
Brisbane/Gold Coast
Source : Quantium ; Urbis




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                                  TRAVEL, TIME AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS   127