MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Real discount rates of 3%, 7% and 10% were applied, as per the Federal Government’s Office of Best
Practice Regulation (OBPR) July 2014 guidelines. The OBPR requires the calculation of net present
values at an annual real discount rate of 7 per cent, with sensitivity analysis at 3% and 10%.

Under the real discount rate of 7%, the net present monetary value attributed to the benefits associated
with travel, time and environmental savings over the ten year period 2018 – 2027 is estimated to be
between $30.9 and $123.5 million, as shown below in Table 9.12. The forecast population growth of the
trade area between 2018 and 2027 and a constant average spend of $95.10 (in 2014 dollars) have been
used to derive this value.


10 Year Benefits Associated with Travel, Time and Environmental Savings
NOOSA CIVIC EXPANSION, 2018-27 (NET PRESENT VALUE, $2014M)                                                   TABLE 9.12
                                                 10% Discount Rate       7% Discount Rate          3% Discount Rate
                                                  Low        High       Low           High        Low          High
User time savings                                $12.5          $50.0   $16.0         $64.0       $22.7           $90.7
Fuel savings                                       $6.0         $24.1    $7.7         $31.0       $11.0           $44.1
Vehicle maintenance and
                                                   $3.6         $14.6    $4.7         $18.7         $6.6          $26.5
depreciation savings
Environmental benefits                             $0.7          $2.9    $0.9          $3.7         $1.3           $5.2
Air pollution reduction - health savings           $1.1          $4.5    $1.4          $5.8         $2.0           $8.2
Vehicle accident reduction                         $0.1          $0.3    $0.1          $0.4         $0.2           $0.6
Total annual economic benefits                   $24.1          $96.5   $30.9        $123.5       $43.8          $175.2
Source : OBPR ; Urbis




9.6          SUMMARY
The proposed expansion to the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre will provide an increase in the range and
number of proximate retail opportunities for Noosa trade area residents.

At present, consumers typically travel to the central Sunshine Coast or Brisbane/Gold Coast for expanded
retail choice. For the majority of area residents, the ability to take advantage of an increased retail offering
at Noosa Civic will reduce the time and distance required to travel to make these retail purchases.

The reduction in leakage from the trade area will result in reduced distances travelled by car, and time
spent on-road; this in turn would result in the following economic, social and environmental benefits:

    time travel savings;

    fuel cost savings;

    vehicle maintenance savings;

    health benefits of reduced vehicle emissions;

    improvement in road safety;

    reduced wear and tear on roads; and

    environmental benefits of reduced vehicle emissions.

The forecasts provided in the this section of the report suggest that the reduction in trip numbers to
centres in the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Gold Coast by trade area residents as a result of the Noosa
Civic expansion will be between 83,000 and 333,000 trips annually.

This is estimated to generate benefits of between $5.46 million (low) and $21.84 (high) million for trade
area residents in 2018, in 2014 dollars.




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                      TRAVEL, TIME AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS   133