MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

5                                       Noosa Civic Market Analysis
This section considers the population outlook for the state of Queensland and the Sunshine Coast
Region, including Noosa. The implications of state and regional population and economic drivers on the
level of population and retail spending growth with the Noosa Civic trade area is then reviewed.


5.1                                     STATE AND REGIONAL POPULATION ANALYSIS
This subsection analyses the historical and forecast population for Queensland, South East Queensland
and the Sunshine Coast and Noosa local government areas.

For the purposes of this analysis the Sunshine Coast and Noosa LGAs combined are hereafter referred
to as the Sunshine Coast Region.

5.1.1                                   HISTORICAL REGIONAL POPULATION
QUEENSLAND

Between 2001 and 2013, Queensland’s population grew at an average rate of 2.2% per annum, a net
increase of over 90,000 people per year. This rate of growth has been markedly higher than the rate of
growth in Australia (1.5%), as shown below in Table 5.1. Queensland accounted for 37.1% of Australia’s
total population growth between 2001 and 2006, and then dropped to 24.1% between 2006 and 2013.

Chart 5.1 illustrates Queensland's historical population growth, broken down by the components of
growth, namely overseas migration, natural increase and interstate migration. As shown, Queensland
has been reliant on overseas migration as the key contributor to population growth since 2005. Similar to
the national trend, population growth rates in Queensland declined throughout 2009 and 2010 following a
peak in late 2008. These rates rebounded in 2011 and 2012. Net interstate migration has also recently
increased following a period of decline, but is significantly below the levels seen in the early-to-mid 2000s.


Queensland Moving Annual Population Growth
COMPONENTS OF GROWTH 2001 TO 2013                                                                                                                CHART 5.1
                                  140
                                              Change Over Previous Period          Natural Increase      Overseas Migration         Interstate Migration
                                  120
       Population Growth ('000)




                                  100

                                   80

                                   60

                                   40

                                   20

                                    0
                                   Dec-2001        Dec-2003             Dec-2005            Dec-2007        Dec-2009           Dec-2011              Dec-2013




Source: ABS Cat 3101; Urbis




SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND
Between 2001 and 2013, the population in South East Queensland grew at an average rate of 2.5% per
annum, a net increase of almost 66,500 people per year. This rate of growth was higher than the rate of
growth in the state of Queensland overall. South East Queensland accounted for 73.6% of Queensland’s
total population growth between 2001 and 2013.

South East Queensland has been one of Australia's population hotspots for several decades with the
Sunshine Coast Region one of the fastest growing areas in the country.




64      NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS
                                                                                                                                                              URBIS
                                                                                                       NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL