MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

5.1.2      FORECAST REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH
In the medium term, Queensland’s population growth is expected to remain strong at an average rate of
2.0% per annum through to 2021, before slowing slightly, in percentage terms, by around 2026. By way
of contrast, these medium-to-longer term forecasts will remain above the level of population growth
forecast for Australia as a whole. South East Queensland is anticipated to grow at a faster rate than
Queensland as a whole, with an average annual growth rate of 2.2% expected through to 2021 and 1.7%
per annum from 2026 to 2031.

Based on medium series population forecasts prepared by the Queensland Government Office of
Economic and Statistical Research (OESR) (formally the Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, or
PIFU), it is estimated that the Sunshine Coast Region’s population growth will continue to remain strong,
growing at 2.3% per annum between 2013 and 2016. Over the medium to longer term, it is predicted that
population growth will remain solid before beginning to slow, in percentage terms, around 2026.

Although the rate of growth on the Sunshine Coast has slowed over the past eight years or so, as
economic circumstances and inter-regional migration flows have changed, the above forecasts represent
strong growth prospects for the region, and this strong population growth will drive continued strong
growth in the retail market.

Leaving aside growth in retail floorspace requirements driven by ‘real’ growth in spending (i.e. growth due
to increasing economic efficiency and wealth, but not inflation), these population forecasts suggest at the
high level a minimum need for an additional 319,600 sq.m of retail floorspace across the Sunshine Coast
Region between 2013 and 2031 (at 2.2 sq.m per capita) to serve the local market alone.

Further floorspace would also be required to serve the broader region and the tourist/visitor market, in
addition to the additional demand for retail floorspace generated by ‘real’ growth and current
inadequacies. The above estimate is therefore clearly a minimum and would be inadequate, if the
forecast level of population growth transpires. In the following sub-sections of the report, we consider
future floorspace demand taking into account other components of growth and the geographic area of
most relevance to the subject development proposal.




66   NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS
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                                                                NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL