MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

State and Regional Population Projections
SUNSHINE COAST, SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND AND QUEENSLAND                                                                             TABLE 5.2
                                                                                                      1
                                                                         Forecast Population
Population                                2016                         2021                2026                                 2031

Australia                              24,352,900                  26,444,700                   28,497,800                   30,492,600
Queensland                              4,936,100                    5,433,200                   5,927,800                    6,415,300
                   2
South East Qld                          3,357,900                    3,722,900                   4,084,400                    4,440,300
Sunshine Coast & Noosa                    353,400                      394,300                      435,000                     475,800

Average Annual Change (No.)               2013-16                      2016-21                      2021-26                     2026-31
Australia                                 406,400                      418,400                      410,600                     399,000
Queensland                                  93,700                       99,420                      98,920                       97,500
South East Qld                              72,967                       73,000                      72,300                       71,180
Sunshine Coast & Noosa                        7,633                       8,180                           8,140                     8,160
Average Annual Change (%)                 2013-16                      2016-21                      2021-26                     2026-31
Australia                                     1.7%                         1.7%                           1.5%                      1.4%
Queensland                                    2.0%                         1.9%                           1.8%                      1.6%
South East Qld                                2.3%                         2.1%                           1.9%                      1.7%
Sunshine Coast & Noosa                        2.3%                         2.2%                           2.0%                      1.8%
Queensland as a Proportion of Australia
Population (no.)                             20.3%                       20.5%                        20.8%                        21.0%
Growth (no.)                                 23.1%                       23.8%                        24.1%                        24.4%
South East Qld as a Proportion of Queensland
Population (no.)                             68.0%                       68.5%                        68.9%                        69.2%
Growth (no.)                                 77.9%                       73.4%                        73.1%                        73.0%
Sunshine Coast and Noosa as Proportion of South East Qld
Population (no.)                             10.5%                       10.6%                        10.7%                        10.7%
Growth (no.)                                 10.5%                       11.2%                        11.3%                        11.5%
1. As at June. Forecasts have been rebased to the 2013 December Estimated Resident Population.
2. South East Queensland includes the Local Government Areas of Brisbane, Gold Coast, Ipswich, Lockyer Valley, Logan, Moreton Bay, Redland,
 Scenic Rim, Somerset and Sunshine Coast (including Noosa Shire).
Source : ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, Electronic Delivery (3218.0.55.001) ;
           ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (3101.0) ; ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (3222.0) Series B
           Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury, local government area projections
          (medium series) 2011 to 2036 ; Urbis




5.2         TRADE AREA POPULATION
The rate and extent of future population growth in the trade area will have a bearing on the future
potential for the subject development proposal, as well as for the market opportunities available to centres
in the Noosa area generally.

Historical and forecast population trends have been prepared based on a range of sources relating to
demographics and land development activity, as follows:

    ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP) in 2013 for SA1 geographies, which provides an accurate
     measure of the trade area population at the small area level.

    The ABS New Dwelling Approval (NDA) data up to December 2013.




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                                                     NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS   67