MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Population Forecasts, 2007-2031
NOOSA CIVIC TRADE AREA                                                                                             TABLE 5.3
                                            1                                             2
                                   Actual                                     Forecast
                           2007                   2013      2016           2021          2026                 2031
Primary                  20,650                 22,090    22,830         23,660        23,920               24,340
Secondary:
North East               10,600                 11,050    11,230         11,480           11,570            11,670
South East               16,130                 18,710    19,890         21,500           21,920            22,350
South                     8,510                 11,100    12,420         15,010           16,310            17,680
North West               15,160                 16,730    17,290         18,270           18,740            19,510
Total Secondary          50,400                 57,590    60,830         66,250           68,540            71,210
Main Trade Area          71,050                 79,680    83,660         89,910           92,450            95,550
                                                            Annual Population Growth (no.)
                                            2007-13      2013-16       2016-21           2021-26          2026-31
Primary                                        240          247           166                52               84
Secondary:
North East                                          75        60             50                 18               20
South East                                         430       393            322                 84               86
South                                              432       440            518                260              274
North West                                         262       187            196                 94              154
Total Secondary                                  1,198     1,080          1,084                458              534
Main Trade Area                                  1,438     1,327          1,250                508              620
                                                             Annual Population Growth (%)
                                            2007-13      2013-16      2016-21       2021-26               2026-31
Primary:                                       1.1%         1.1%         0.7%           0.2%                 0.3%
Secondary:
North East                                       0.7%      0.5%            0.4%               0.2%            0.2%
South East                                       2.5%      2.1%            1.6%               0.4%            0.4%
South                                            4.5%      3.8%            3.9%               1.7%            1.6%
North West                                       1.7%      1.1%            1.1%               0.5%            0.8%
Total Secondary                                  2.2%      1.8%            1.7%               0.7%            0.8%
Main Trade Area                                  1.9%      1.6%            1.5%               0.6%            0.7%
1. As at June, ERP for 2007 and 2013 based on SA1 boundaries
2. Forecast Queensland Population based on ABS population projections (3222.0), Series B
Source : ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, Electronic Delivery (3218.0.55.001) ;
           ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (3101.0) ;
           ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (3222.0) Series B
           Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury,
           local government area projections (medium series) 2011 to 2036 ; Urbis




The proportion of the Sunshine Coast Region which has been attributed to the main trade area in the past
and also the future is displayed below in Table 5.4. In the period 2001 to 2011, the main trade area
accounted for 24%-25% of the total population in the Sunshine Coast Region, equating to around 21%-
22% of total growth.

Going forward, growth in the Sunshine Coast Region is expected to be focussed in areas such as
Caloundra South, Kawana and Sippy Downs. Based on our forecasts, by the 2021- 2031 period, the
main trade area is only anticipated to account for, on average, 6.9% of the total population growth
forecast for the Sunshine Coast Region (refer Table 5.4).




74   NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS
                                                                                                                                 URBIS
                                                                          NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL