MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

Change in the Number of Residents by Age Group, 2011 - 2031
                                                                                                      1
SA2 AREAS EXCLUSIVELY WITHIN THE NOOSA CIVIC TRADE AREA                                                                             CHART 5.2

                             100%
                              90%              17.7%
 Proportion of Population




                                                                               22.4%                                   26.7%
                              80%
                              70%
                              60%              37.6%                           34.1%
                                                                                                                       32.5%
                              50%
                              40%
                                               19.9%                           19.9%                                   18.3%
                              30%
                              20%
                              10%              24.8%                           23.6%                                   22.6%
                               0%
                                                  2011                         2021                                    2031
                                                                 0-19    20-39        40-64    65+
1. Noosa Hinterland, Noosa Heads, Noosaville, Peregian, Sunshine Beach and Tewantin.
Source : Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury, Projected population (medium series),
          by five-year age group, persons, by statistical area level 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 2011 to 2036 ; Urbis




A breakdown of the age groups by absolute numbers in 2011, as well as forecasts for 2021 and 2031 is
outlined in Chart 5.3. While all age groups are expected to increase in absolute terms by 2021, using
2011 as a base, the 65+ age group is expected to account for 46% of net growth. For the ten year period
between 2021 and 2031, it is forecast that the total number of residents aged less than 65 years in the
selected SA2 areas will actually decrease, while the number of residents aged 65 and over in the area will
increase by approximately 5,000 people.

This clearly has implications for future retail and related needs in the area, with customer convenience
being an even higher priority than it is today.


Change in the Proportion of Population by Age Group, 2011 - 2031
                                                                                                      1
SA2 AREAS EXCLUSIVELY WITHIN THE NOOSA CIVIC TRADE AREA                                                                             CHART 5.3
                            35,000
                                               2011       2021             2031
 No. of Residents




                            30,000
                                                                                             29,400
                            25,000                                                     27,200      29,500
                                                                                                                                    24,300
                            20,000
                                                 20,500                                                                     19,300
                            15,000   17,900                     17,200
                                           20,300         14,300      16,600
                                                                                                                     12,800
                            10,000

                             5,000

                                -
                                           0-19                  20-39                        40-64                           65+


1. Noosa Hinterland, Noosa Heads, Noosaville, Peregian, Sunshine Beach and Tewantin.
Source : Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury, Projected population (medium series),
          by five-year age group, persons, by statistical area level 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 2011 to 2036 ; Urbis




The expected stagnation of growth in the number of people aged between 20 and 64 also has
implications for the type of local employment opportunities needed.




URBIS
NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL                                                      NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS   79