MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

5.4         RETAIL SPENDING
Retail expenditure levels are determined by population levels and growth, and the value of retail
expenditure per head of population, the latter of which grows in ‘real’ terms over time as a result of
general economic growth and the overall wealth effects. The following section provides an overview of the
current and future retail expenditure by Noosa Civic trade area residents.

5.4.1       METHODOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS
Per capita retail spending estimates have been derived using MarketInfo, a widely used micro-simulation
model by MDS Market Data Systems Pty Ltd. This model is based on information from the national ABS
Household Expenditure Survey (HES), the Census of Population and Housing, as well as other
information sources such as the ABS National Accounts.

The model uses micro-simulation techniques to combine propensity to spend on particular commodities
with the socio-economic characteristics of individuals to derive spending estimates per capita on a small
area basis. The forecasts do not include retail price inflation (RPI), which is the component of the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) that relates to retail goods and services.

5.4.2       ESTIMATED PER CAPITA RETAIL SPENDING
Spending on retail goods and services generated by residents of the Noosa Civic trade area and
surrounding areas will drive the potential for future retail development. All current and future retail
expenditure estimates provided in this report are expressed in constant $2014, inclusive of GST. Table
5.6 outlines the primary and main trade area (MTA) retail spending per capita, whilst Chart 5.4 illustrates
the variation in retail spending per capita from the Queensland average. The marginally above average
spending levels, despite below average incomes, is due to other demographic drivers. In this case the
difference is primarily due to the older age structure of the market and the accumulated wealth effect.


Trade Area Retail Spending Per Capita, 2014
NOOSA CIVIC TRADE AREA ($2014, INC GST)                                                                                          TABLE 5.6
                                                                                 Noosa Civic                    MTA Var'n from
Product Group                                        QLD                       PTA             MTA                     QLD
Food Retail                                         5,854                    6,118           6,049                      +3%
Food Catering                                       1,421                    1,344           1,364                       -4%
Apparel                                             1,191                    1,143           1,154                       -3%
Homewares                                              971                      976             997                     +3%
Bulky Goods                                         1,507                    1,607           1,641                      +9%
General/Leisure                                     1,657                    1,704           1,738                      +5%
Serices                                                508                      560             545                     +7%
Total Retail Spending                              13,109                   13,453          13,490                      +3%
Source : MDS, MarketInfo 2012, Australian Nationa Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product Accounts (5206.0) ; Urbis




Within the Noosa Civic main trade area, retail spending on Bulky Goods, Services, General/Leisure,
Homewares and Food Retail are higher than the Queensland average. Conversely, retail spending by
main trade area residents on Food Catering and Apparel are approximately 4% and 3% lower than
Queensland average. Notably, however, these are categories that would be buoyed by tourist spending.




80    NOOSA CIVIC MARKET ANALYSIS
                                                                                                                                             URBIS
                                                                                      NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL