Attachment 2 - Economic Needs Assessment

            Demand Analysis
This section discusses the approach undertaken to estimate demand for commercial car washes.
Accordingly, this section also reports commercial car wash demand estimates for the PTA and STA.

6.1 Methodology
To estimate demand for commercial car wash facilities, the following approach was utilised:
    +    Derive average number of vehicles per dwelling and project the size of trade area vehicle
         fleet;
    +    Calculate an uplift for trailers based on State registration data and apply to the trade area
         vehicle fleet;
    +    Apply an uplift for commercial / rental vehicles within the trade areas;
    +    Apply an uplift for non-trade area vehicles, recognising that the car wash facility would also
         be utilised by non-trade area residents; and
    +    Estimate car wash facility demand based on industry averages relating to number of vehicles
         per establishment.

This approach is discussed in further detail below.

6.1.1 Projected Size of Local Vehicle Fleet
Firstly, the average number of vehicles per dwelling is assumed to remain constant at 2021 Census
levels (i.e. an average of 2.0 vehicles per dwelling in the PTA and an average of 2.1 vehicles per
dwelling in the STA). This represents a fairly conservative consumption, based on historic trends where
the average number of vehicles per dwelling actually increased in both the PTA and STA (i.e. there
was an average of 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in the PTA and 2.0 vehicles per dwelling in the STA as of
the 2016 Census).
Based on the above assumptions and the dwelling projections for the trade areas presented in
Section 3.2.2 of the report, the local vehicle fleet is projected to increase from 8,071 vehicles in 2021
to 9,353 vehicles in 2031, as summarised in Table 6-1.

Table 6-1     Projected Size of Local Vehicle Fleet by Trade Area, 2021-2031

                                                      2021      2023       2025    2027    2029      2031

 Number of dwellings

 PTA                                                 2,892      2,978      3,067   3,159   3,254    3,351

 STA                                                 1,089      1,121      1,155   1,189   1,225    1,262

 Total                                               3,981      4,100      4,222   4,348   4,479    4,613

 Estimated size of vehicle fleet in Trade Area

 PTA                                                 5,785      5,957      6,135   6,318   6,507    6,702

 STA                                                 2,287      2,355      2,425   2,498   2,573    2,650

 Total                                               8,071      8,312      8,560   8,816   9,080    9,353
Source: Bull & Bear Economics (2022)




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