MCU14/0056 - Attachment H -Economic Needs Assessment

the development on the retail network, their amelioration and community need and
demand for the proposed mixed use development are then addressed.
The development of the supermarket, fast-food restaurant and service station are
assumed to be in place and trading by 2016, with the year ending June 2017 representing
the first full year of trading. The opening of this component of the development is expected
to coincide with the completion of the Cooroy Southern Interchange.


3.5.1     Market Share Analysis
Market shares are applied to the available retail spend of trade area households by
commodity group at its first year and subsequent years of trading to derive an estimate of
supermarket and fast food sales.
However, this does not capture the spending of workers, short-stay visitors and passing
trade who will use the mixed use development facilities. Given the site’s highly visible and
accessible position on the Bruce Highway, the proportion of the centre’s sales derived
from these sources is expected to be around 30% of the supermarket turnover and 50% of
the fast-food turnover. This component of sales is generally called external sales as it is
derived from people who reside outside the defined trade area, and can be geographically
diverse in origin.
Table 3.5 and 3.6 set out forecast market shares and resulting turnover of the proposed
mixed-use development in its assumed first full year of trading, 2017. The retail
component of the proposed development is expected to achieve a 10.4% share of the
trade area’s retail expenditure. However, the Take Home Food commodity group, is
forecast to draw about 22.2% of the trade area’s spending in this category. These market
shares reflect the proposed centre’s highly accessible location, particularly to the Cooroy
West Trade Area and its co-location with a service station facility and various other uses.

Table 3.5: Market Shares by Retail Category
                             Take home      Meals out-                  Convenience   Comparison
 Trade area                                                   Apparel
                                   food      takeaway                    homewares    Homewares     Totals
                                                              Market shares (%)
 Cooroy East                        18.0%       8.0%              –          5.5%             –     8.5%
 Cooroy West                        28.0%      12.5%              –          6.1%             –    12.9%
 Total Trade Area                   22.2%       9.9%              –          5.8%             –    10.4%
Source: Foresight Partners

Table 3.6: Forecast Supermarket and Fast-Food turnover (2013 $ values)
                           Resulting Turnover
                                  ($m)
                                  2017
 Supermarket                               6.0
 External (30%)*                           2.6
 Fast-Food                                 1.0
 External (50%)*                           1.0
 Total Turnover                           10.6


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Proposed Myall Street Development
12022 Rev 1
30 May 2014