MCU14/0056 - Attachment H -Economic Needs Assessment

                           Resulting Turnover
                                  ($m)
 Productivity ($/m²)                 $7,404/m²
                                  2019
 Total turnover                           10.9
 Productivity ($/m²)                 $7,635/m²

                                    2021
 Total turnover                              11.3
 Productivity ($/m²)                    $7,880m²
*Assumes around 30% of supermarket turnover and 50% of fast-food turnover originates from local workers,
visitors and passing traffic outside the defined trade area. Source: Table 3.4, Foresight Partners estimates.

The retail component of the proposed mixed use development, which incorporates the
supermarket, service station (excluding petrol) and fast food outlet, is forecast to achieve
sales of $10.6 million in its first full year of trading in 2017, of which $7 million is generated
by trade area residents and $3.6 million by visitors, workers, passing traffic and others
from outside the trade area.
The equivalent productivity level for the development (turnover per square metre of
lettable area) is $7,404/m2, which is more than sufficient to sustain the proposed uses at
2017. Assuming constant market shares are maintained, the centre’s sales would
increase to $10.9 million and $11.3 million in its third and fifth years of trading (2019 and
2021). In practice, these will vary in response to other competitive developments that
might occur in or near the trade area, as well as the competitive responses by existing
centres and retailers.


3.6       Impact Analysis

3.6.1     Economic Impact Defined
Economic impact stems from the probable reduction in turnover at existing centres
attributable to the introduction of competitive development in the form of a new centre, or
the expansion of an existing centre. The expected turnover generated by the new
development, or the additional turnover generated by extensions, represents the dollar
impact on an area’s centre network in the first full year of operation in which it is
introduced.
That is, once the new centre or centre extensions have been operating long enough to
‘settle in’ (usually a year), subsequent improvements in that centre’s turnover performance
cannot be considered as a further impact, as it is an established part of the network. It
then becomes subject to the impacts of competitive strategies of other centres and/or the
impacts of further new competition.
Dollar impacts are usually distributed among competitive centres taking into account:
          the new or extended development size and function;



                                                       24
Proposed Myall Street Development
12022 Rev 1
30 May 2014