Attachment 7- Economic Impact Statement

                                                                                                                             44




                    Although the provision rate approach has been adopted as an appropriate basis for
                    examining need, it is relevant to highlight the extent to which supermarkets within the
                    Noosa catchment are currently likely to be overtrading in terms of average sales per sqm
                    of floorspace, due to restricted supply.

                    The analysis is presented in Table 10 and can be described as follows:
                    •      Catchment residents spent an estimated $615m on food and groceries in 2022. This
                           this is equivalent to the ‘FLG; market in Table 5, less spending on takeaway liquor.
                    •      Of this, an estimated $430m, or 70%, is likely to be directed to supermarkets. This
                           figure varies in any location depending on the range of non-supermarket food shops,
                           the presence of markets as alternative shopping destinations, and other factors. It is
                           normally considered to average around 75% in most urban contexts.
                    •      Supermarkets gain an additional 9% from the sale of other merchandise such as small
                           kitchenware items, stationery, some apparel (socks, etc), and in some supermarkets
                           from an in-store liquor section. Incorporating this, catchment spending at
                           supermarkets is estimated at around $473m in 2022.
                    •      An estimated 10% of supermarket sales comes from people outside the catchment.
                           This can include from tourists, especially in places such as Noosaville and Noosa
                           Junction, but for supermarkets in the southern part of the defined catchment it would
                           also include people living just outside the catchment. When this is added, total
                           supermarket sales is estimated at around $525m in 2022.
                    •      In 2022 there was a total of 30,950 sqm of supermarket floorspace located within the
                           catchment. This means that the average sales performance for catchment
                           supermarkets was close to $17,000 per sqm.

                    The broad analysis presented in Table 10 demonstrates that supermarkets in the Noosa
                    catchment currently achieve very strong levels of sales, well above the levels typically
                    seen as sustainable, which are around $10,000/sqm for smaller stores and in the order of
                    $12,000/sqm for larger full-line supermarkets. Of course, for any single operator the
                    turnover achieved through the store needs to cover rent, other occupancy costs, staffing
                    and other cost inputs to be profitable, and these differ in each case. However, on any
                    measure there is plenty of scope to add supermarket floorspace without causing the
                    sector any significant stress.

Table 10—           Item                                                                                                    2022
Supermarket sales   Catchment spending on food & groceries                                                              $615.3m
performance 2022
                    Catchment spending on food & groceries spent at supermarkets (@70%)                                 $430.7m

Source: Deep End    Plus sales of other merchandise (@9%)                                                                $42.6m
Services            Total catchment supermarket spending                                                                $473.3m
                    In-coming spending by tourists & other visitors (@10%)                                               $52.6m
                    Total sales at supermarkets within the catchment                                                    $525.9m
                    Supermarket floorspace                                                                           30,950 sqm
                    Average sales performance per sqm                                                                   $16,993




                    Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application   Deep End Services