Attachment 7- Economic Impact Statement

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                             north. The redistribution of shopping from these centres to the NBC is consistent with the
                             expectation that a greater share of retail demand is retained within the catchment (refer
                             section 5.5).

                             In percentage terms the largest impact is on the existing components of Noosa Civic,
                             where the impact from the VMU component is forecast at an 8.6% decline in sales. A
                             very large share of this impact is associated with direct store-on-store competition
                             between the two supermarkets, although impacts will occur across categories depending
                             on the exact nature of new retail tenants. Little or no impact on the Showroom precinct is
                             expected.

                             Other than at Noosa Civic, the impacts on other nearby centres most affected by the
                             project are around -3% to -6% in percentage terms. This is well within the typical
                             variation in retail sales on an annual basis, and is not expected to lead to any major
                             change in retail tenants at these centres, particularly as these centres are generally
                             performing well with high average sales and low vacancies. Moreover, a large proportion
                             of the impact would be due to the introduction of the supermarket, and analysis in
                             section 5.5 shows that supermarkets across the catchment are generally over trading.
                             For other centres within the catchment not listed, the impacts average just 1.8% in
                             percentage terms.
                             Importantly, all of the modelled centres are expected to experience growth in sales
                             performance when compared against current estimated sales for 2022, with any
                             competitive effect outweighed by growth in the retail spending market in the intervening
                             period.

                             Cumulative impacts
                             Table 16 presents an examination of the cumulative trading impacts that would arise
                             following the combined development of the VMU and the proposed Stage 2 Retail
                             application.

Table 16—Trading impacts: cumulative

Centre                                      Sales 2022          Sales 2027 -    Sales 2027 -                 Impact $      Impact %          Impact %
                                                                 Base Case with NCV+NCR2                       in 2027      (cf 2027)         (cf 2022)
Noosa Civic SC & Showroom                        $176.1              $202.1                $178.8               -$23.2       -11.5%             +1.5%
Noosaville                                       $189.8              $220.3                $204.8               -$15.5         -7.0%            +7.9%
Noosa Junction                                   $173.1              $196.3                $180.3               -$16.0         -8.2%            +4.2%
Noosa Heads                                      $140.1              $156.3                $146.3               -$10.0         -6.4%            +4.5%
Weyba Rd                                          $29.7                $34.0                $32.1                 -$1.9        -5.7%            +7.9%
Tewantin TC                                       $53.5                $60.8                $56.9                 -$3.8        -6.3%            +6.4%
Other centres in catchment                       $541.0              $624.5                $610.2               -$14.3         -2.3%           +12.8%
All centres in catchment                       $1,303.4            $1,494.2              $1,409.5               -$84.7         -5.7%            +8.1%
Centres outside catchment                                                                                       -$33.2
Total redistributed sales                                                                                      -$118.0

Source: Deep End Services
Notes: NCV – Noosa Civic Village; NCR2 – Noosa Stage 2 Retail




                             Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application                Deep End Services