Attachment 7- Economic Impact Statement

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              The effect of the Stage 2 Retail application would be to increase cumulative impacts on
              those centres that have stronger leisure, apparel and homewares sectors which are likely
              to experience greater competition. These centres include:
              •    Noosa Civic itself which contains a discount department store and other specialty
                   tenants in these sectors, as well as some tenants in the Showroom precinct which
                   generate sales in homewares and leisure retailing;
              •    Noosa Heads which has an extensive range of non-food specialty stores;
              •    Noosaville, which also include stores selling homewares, apparel and leisure; and
              •    Noosa Junction, which contains some specialty stores in overlapping segments.

              Although impacts are slightly higher in percentage terms when compared to those
              shown in Table 15, the cumulative trading impact is still significantly lower than the
              normal threshold of 10% loss of sales other than for Noosa Civic where, as mentioned
              above, most of the effect is due to supermarket sales being diverted from the existing
              Woolworths.
              Overall, the cumulative trading effects are heavily influenced by the new supermarket, as
              this component (with forecast sales of $42.8m) would generate 36% of all sales across
              the VMU and the Stage 2 Retail development.
              The total net effect across the NBC would be an increase in sales from $202m (Base Case
              in the absence of Noosa Civic Village) to around $300m if the proposed development
              proceeds – ie a net increase in sales of nearly $100m.
7.5 Summary   With respect to competitive impacts the key planning issue is whether the decline in
              sales would lead to any loss of centre role or performance such that the community
              experiences a loss of local services.
              Given the expected competitive effects on other centres in the region, the modelling
              shown in this chapter demonstrates that no centres will experience a significant loss of
              sales such that major anchor stores would close or that the role of the centre would be
              lost. This is the case when considering the VMU development in isolation or the
              cumulative effect when combined with the Stage 2 Retail application.
              In most cases the impacts would simply result in slightly lower sales expectations for
              stores that would otherwise be trading well above the typical average. For example, the
              analysis presented in section 5.5 (refer Table 10) indicates that supermarkets in Noosa
              significantly over-perform compared to industry benchmarks due to the relative
              undersupply in supermarket floorspace. A decline in sales because of the introduction of
              a new supermarket at Noosa Civic Village would not put these stores at risk.
              In some cases the impacts would simply redistribute sales from one store to another
              within an operator group. This would happen, for example, if a Coles supermarket were
              to be secured, in which case there could be some switching of shopping trips away from
              the existing Coles supermarket at Noosa Junction. In such instances the existing stores
              operated by each brand would continue to trade from the established stores, even if the
              performance of these stores would be somewhat reduced.
              Moreover, the analysis shows that centres would be experiencing large increases in sales
              in the next four years leading up to the development, so that once the impacts occur the

              Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application   Deep End Services