Changes to Report to incorporate Attachment H · MCU13/0092

Foresight

partnersis

total, the proposed shopping centre is expected to capture about 19.7% of total trade area
househoid expenditure in these product categories.

Table 4.2 sets out the forecast turnover. The proposed is forecast to achieve sales of
$12.6 million in its first full year of trading in 2015. Approximately $10.7 million of this will
come from Trade Area households, with the remaining $1.9 million (15%) of its sales
expected to come from visitors and passing trade. Assuming a constant market share is
maintained, the centre’s sales would increase to $12.9 million by 2017.

Table 4.2: Forecast Centre Turnover (December 2012 $ Values)

 

 

 

Se “food (sm) take-away ($m) APPArEL (Sm) Ore | Sm)
2015 87 1.0 0.0 2.9 12.6
2017 8.9 1.0 0.0 3.0 12.9
2019 9.2 1.0 0.0 31 13.3
2021 9.4 1.05 0.0 31 13.6
Increase 2011-21 1.2 09 0 0.3 7

 

 

 

Source: Foresight Partners Estimates

Table 4.3 shows the forecast distribution of turnover between the specialty shops and the
IGA supermarket. The average productivity level for the centre (turnover per square metre
of lettable area) is $7,202/m?, which is considered sufficient to sustain a centre of this size
and composition at 2015.

Table 4.3: Forecast Turnover for Supermarket & Specialities (December 2012 $ values)

 

 

2015 ($m) 2017($m) 2019 ($m) 2021 ($m)

turnover turnover turnover turnover

IGA supermarket (1,100m*) 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Specialties (644m?) 4.7 48 5.0 5.1
Total $ 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6
$/m* 7,202 7,403 7,603 7,810

 

 

Source: Foresight Partners Estimates
4.2 |Impact Analysis

4.2.1 Economic Impact Defined

Economic impact stems from the probable reduction in turnover at existing centres
attributable to the introduction of competitive development in the form of a new business
centre, or the expansion of an existing centre. The expected turnover generated by the
new centre, or the additional turnover generated by centre extensions, represents the

 

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Needs Assessment, Peregian Beach Centre
13002 Rev 2
19 February 2013