2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

but assumed to be normally occupied by visitors28). To accord with the DMaTT model’s base year
of 2014, the provision of detached visitor dwellings between 2011 and 2014 was assumed to have
grown at 2.5% per year, with no change in the occupancy rate during this period.

This resulted in a total of approximately 7,300 visitor dwellings in 2016. In the event that
continued ongoing growth in total visitor nights of 2.5% each year to 2036 occurred, additional
demand, if left unchecked, for this form of accommodation could grow to around 5,000 dwellings
by 2036 (Table 63).

Council’s DMaTT model includes assumptions about new supply of visitor dwellings from 2014
and this has been used as an indication of possible future availability. DMaTT estimated that this
supply could increase to 5,193 attached visitor dwellings in 2036 and an ultimate figure of 5,648
attached visitor dwellings. For detached dwellings, DMaTT identified capacity for one additional
detached visitor dwelling, and this again has been excluded from the analysis as it understates
capacity. If the estimated new supply for attached dwellings is delivered to 2036, the need for
visitor dwellings falls to around 4,600 dwellings at 2036 (Table 63).

Table 63. Assumed need for visitor dwellings, Noosa Shire, 2016-2036

Year                                   DEMAND                                 SUPPLY               NEED

                  Assumed            Assumed Total      Assumed           Assumed New         Assumed Need
                Annual Tourist        Demand (at        Additional           Supply
                 Growth Rate            current          Demand             (DMaTT)
                                      occupancy)

2016                 2.5%                7,301              -352                149                 -203

2021                 2.5%                8,260             -1,311               282                -1,029

2026                 2.5%                9,346             -2,397               368                -2,029

2031                 2.5%               10,574             -3,625               393                -3,232

2036                 2.5%               11,963             -5,014               416                -4,598

Notes: This table shows the total need over assumed provision at 2014. Figures are cumulative. Negative
figures show additional demand or a shortfall (shown in red). Positive figures show additional supply or an
‘oversupply’ (shown in black).


It has also been assumed that there is some excess capacity in existing visitor dwellings
establishments given the occupancy rates of tourist accommodation in Noosa Shire. Although
occupancy data is not available for visitor dwellings for the full year, at the time of the Census it
has been estimated that occupancy was around 40%. Given higher occupancy rates in summer, it
has been assumed that the occupancy rate for visitor dwellings for the full year may be 50%. A
similar occupancy increase to that used for tourist accommodation (20% points) has been used to
give an indication of the impact that an increase in occupancy rates can have on the overall need



28
     This has been calculated in three steps: (1) estimating the breakdown between total unoccupied resident
and unoccupied visitor dwellings based on the difference in dwelling counts in the census, and household
estimates from Queensland Treasury data, (2) assuming that unoccupied resident dwellings have a similar
dwelling mix breakdown to occupied resident dwellings, and (3) calculating the difference between the mix
of unoccupied dwellings and the assumed mix of unoccupied resident dwellings.




Briggs & Mortar Pty Ltd | Page 166