2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

for additional visitor dwelling supply. The result of this scenario is shown in Table 60 below. This
maximum occupancy assumption has been used in future sections of this modelling chapter.

Table 64. Assumed need for visitor dwellings (with increased occupancy from 50% to 70%),
Noosa Shire, 2016-2036

Year                                  DEMAND                          SUPPLY            NEED

                 Assumed               Assumed        Assumed       Assumed           Assumed
                  Annual             Total Demand     Additional   New Supply          Need
                  Tourist            (at increasing    Demand       (DMaTT)
                Growth Rate          occupancy to
                                          70%)

2016                2.5%              7,301 (50%)       -352            149             -203

2021                2.5%              7,509 (55%)       -560            282             -278

2026                2.5%              7,788 (60%)       -839            368             -471

2031                2.5%              8,134 (65%)       -1,185          393             -792

2036                2.5%              8,545 (70%)       -1,596          416            -1,180

Notes: This table shows the total shortfall over assumed provision at 2014. Figures are cumulative. Negative
figures show additional demand or a shortfall (shown in red). Positive figures show additional supply or an
‘oversupply’ (shown in black).


Overall need for tourist accommodation and visitor dwellings
If the demand for tourist accommodation and visitor dwellings continued to grow in line with
past trends, a higher number of residential dwellings may be used for tourist accommodation and
this would reduce the amount of residential dwelling stock available for residents. Some of this
demand for tourist accommodation may be met by the movement of residents out of tourist
accommodation, by reduced vacancy rates in the residential market allowing increased use by
visitors, or by considering visitor uses for ‘spare’ development capacity in the residential market
(development capacity in the residential market is considered separately in section 6.5.1 below).
Table 65 summarises the overall need for tourist accommodation and visitor dwellings given the
assumptions described above.

At 2036, the assumptions would result in a surplus of tourist accommodation (motel, hotel and
holiday resorts) of around 40 tourist accommodation rooms, but a need for around 1,180 visitor
dwellings. Therefore the total projected need for tourist accommodation and visitor dwellings
would be estimated to be around 1,140 additional rooms/dwellings29 by 2036, in the event that
ongoing growth in tourism demand should continue in line with that over the last decade, at
2.5% per year.

Again it is stressed that this is a projected future only should existing trends continue at the rate
experienced over the last decade. It is not seen as a desirable future, nor in line with Council
sustainability policies, and it is not recommended that this should be accommodated in land use


29
     The study has not differentiated between whether a visitor night is spent in a room or in unit. The
numbers of actual visitors will obviously differ, but the demand for new accommodation has been derived
by simply applying the increase in visitor numbers to existing accommodation and extrapolating that
forward. It is therefore assumed that the accommodation mix remains constant.




Briggs & Mortar Pty Ltd | Page 167