Planning_Economic Impact Assessment

                                                                                            Section 5: Retail liquor potential




                                                                             Table 5.1
                                          Noosa Heads liquor capacity assessm ent, 2012-2020*


                                                                                  2012         2015       2017          2020


  Trade area liquor spend
  • Beer                                                                           8.0          8.3        8.5           8.7
  • Wine                                                                           11.9        12.4       12.7          13.0
  • Spirits                                                                        6.7          6.9        7.1           7.3
  Total resident liquor sales                                                      26.5        27.6       28.2          29.0


  Beyond trade area liquor spend
  • Beer (@ 30%)                                                                   3.4          3.5        3.6           3.7
  • Wine (at 30%)                                                                  5.1          5.3        5.4           5.6
  • Spirits (at 20%)                                                               1.7          1.7        1.8           1.8
  Beyond trade area liquor spend                                                   10.2        10.6       10.8          11.1

  Total liquor sales                                                               36.7        38.1       39.0          40.1

  Estimated liquor sales by store format
  Large format store (market share 50% incr. to 55%)                               18.4        21.0       21.5          22.1
  Small format store (market share 50% decr. to 45%)                               18.4        17.2       17.6          18.1

  Existing & Proposed Supermarkets Floorspace**
  Large format stores                                                             1,200        2,400      2,400         2,400
  Small format stores                                                             2,415        2,415      2,415         2,415

  Estimated average sales per sq.m
  Large format stores **                                                          15,304       8,740      8,949         9,196
  Small format stores                                                             7,605        7,106      7,276         7,477

  *excluding inflatio n and including GST.
  ** pro po sed First Cho ice sto re assumed first year o f trade at 2015.
  So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi




This analysis above that there is the potential within the Noosa Heads area to
support all of the liquor floorspace which exists or is proposed to be added. Of
course whether or not any individual store trades successfully will then depend on
a range of other factors, the most important by far being the quality of the store’s
offer, in particular its ranging, pricing, and service levels. There is no guarantee
that all stores would trade at the average levels as indicated as being potentially
available in Table 5.1, but there is the potential for all of them to do so.


Table 5.2 then details our estimated sales potential for the proposed large format
liquor store at Noosa Heads at 2015.




                                                                                           Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
                                                                                                First Choice Assessment         31
                                                                                                                  Coles Group