2015-04-07 Item 2 - Attachment 1 - Pre feasibility Study of Electric Bus Routes

bus on Route 627 should be based on actual performance in Noosa operating conditions
during the proposed trial period.
Table 12 Financial Model Estimated Discounted Costs of Bus Options1

Summary of Analysis                                       BYD eBus              Optare Solo 10M
Expected bus lifetime 2                                            15 years                    25 years
Assumed common investment horizon                                  15 years                    15 years
Cost comparison (Not discounted)
Investment cost                                               -$1,868,551                  -$1,761,502
Residual value                                                   $108,000                   $1,428,800
Total investment Cost (Not discounted)                        -$1,760,551                    -$332,702

Discounted costs
Discounted investment cost                                    -$1,109,244                  -$1,040,566
Discounted residual value                                         $35,014                     $415,717
Total discounted investment cost                              -$1,074,230                    -$624,849
Discounted cost per km (2014 dollars)                                -$0.56                       -$0.33
The model assumptions relied upon in the cost analysis is detailed below in Table 13.
Table 13 Upfront Purchase Costs and Maintenance and Servicing Cost
         Assumptions3

Summary of Assumptions                                   Per Annum
General Assumptions
Interest rate                                            5.00%
Discount rate                                            7.00%

Specific Assumptions (Annual increases)
Maintaining plant                                        4.30%
Bus maintenance                                          4.30%
Bus servicing                                            4.30%
Wear and tear                                            6.00%
Fuel price                                               6.00%

7.3        Operational model
The SOC operational model, compares the indicative costs of running selected electric bus
options (Optare and BYD) as a fleet on Route 627 against the indicative costs of running a
fleet of current Sunbus diesel buses.
The time period for the operational model is 10 years (based on TransLink’s initial leasing
period) which allows for a longer term operational comparison of the current Sunbus diesel
fleet on Route 627 with both the Optare and BYD electric bus fleet options. The operational
model assumes that all buses are subject to a standard TransLink lease of 10 years with a
20% residual. Other model parameters such as assumed fuel consumption and kilometres
travelled per annum remain the same as used in the financial model.



1
    Over a common investment horizon of 15 years.
2
    Common assumed investment horizon of 15 years
3
    Over a common investment horizon of 15 years.




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