MCU14/0106 Appendix K - Commercial Needs Assessment

6               Noosa Civic Office Floor Space Demand
                Assessment
There are a number of approaches that can be used to forecast commercial office floor space demand.
The major demand drivers for office based white collar floor space have been identified as population
growth and white collar employment growth. Therefore, it is important that these two drivers play primary
roles in floor space forecasts. With this in mind two floor space demand approaches have been
developed to estimate the demand for commercial office floor space at Noosa Civic. The first approach
focuses on the growth in office based white collar workers in the wider Sunshine Coast region and the
Noosa Civic catchment area. The second approach focuses on the forecast population growth for the
Sunshine Coast region and Noosa Civic catchment area. These two approaches are described below:

     Market share approach (Method 1) estimates white collar employment and floor space growth for
      the Sunshine Coast region and the potential market share estimated to be achieved by Noosa Civic.

     Floor space to population ratio approach (Method 2) estimates the current floor space to resident
      ratio and applies this ratio to the forecast population growth to calculate the additional floor space
      demand.


6.1             MARKET SHARE APPROACH – METHOD 1
At present, the Noosa Civic catchment area is estimated to incorporate approximately 25,850 sq.m of
office floor space (including vacancies). This represents around 11% of the overall office floor space
estimate for the Sunshine Coast region.

Going forward there is a number of projects identified to deliver additional office floor space across the
region. This includes the Maroochydore Structure Plan area, the Sippy Downs Town Centre, Kawana
Town Centre, and Caloundra South Town Centre. The estimates in the following table represent supply
estimates indicative of supply possibilities, not necessarily reflective of commercial demand.


Sunshine Coast Office Markets
LONG TERM SUPPLY ESTIMATES – MARKET SHARE                                                                                                   TABLE 6.1
                                                              Current           Est. Market     Additional      Est. Market Total additonal Est. Market
                                                                            1
                                                          Floorspace    Share                   Floorspace     Share           Floospace        Share
                                                          2013 (Sq.m) 2013 (Sq.m)             2013-26 (Sq.m) 2013-26 (%)      2026+ (Sq.m)    2026+ (%)
Maroochydore and Kawana (Office)                             153,169                66.9%        127,224           66.8%         232,250        71.9%
Noosa Civic Catchment Area (Est. sq.m)                         25,852               11.3%           0              6.2%              0           4.8%
Namb our and others (Est. sq.m)                                50,000               21.8%        63,334            27.0%          75,137        23.3%
Total Sunshine Coast Office Supply                           229,021               100.0%        190,558          100.0%         307,387         100%
1. Represents to tal sto ck, including vacancies
So urce: QIC ; P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Urbis



The majority of future office space on the Sunshine Coast is planned for the traditional office centres of
Maroochydore and Kawana. This is anticipated to see these locations continue to account for around
70% of the overall supply of office floor space on the Sunshine Coast.

The purpose of this analysis is to identify the market share that the catchment would result in with the
addition of no new office floor space and as a result, no office floor space supply has been allocated for
the Noosa Civic catchment area.

If this were the case, the Noosa Civic catchment area would represent 6.2% of the overall Sunshine
Coast office market by 2026, and 4.8% beyond 2026. For the purposes of this assessment it has been
assumed that the Noosa Civic catchment area maintains its existing market share of 11.3% of the overall
Sunshine Coast office market. This is likely to be at the high end.




38      NOOSA CIVIC OFFICE FLOOR SPACE DEMAND ASSESSMENT
                                                                                                                                                          URBIS
                                                                                                        REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL