MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

This sub-section outlines the future demand for retail floorspace, which will be driven by the fundamental
drivers of demand - population growth and ‘real’ growth in spending on retail goods and services-both of
which will increase the total size of the retail market.

7.4.1        METHOD 1 – FLOORSPACE PER CAPITA APPROACH
Applying the previously noted Australian benchmark of 2.2 sq.m of retail floorspace per capita to the
forecast population in the trade area provides a high level analysis of the cumulative future demand for
retail floorspace in the Noosa Civic trade area.

For the purposes of this analysis, the benchmark retail floorspace per capita of 2.2 sq.m has been grown
out by 0.5% annually. This is below the long term historic growth rate of 0.8% as we have made an
allowance for the prospect of online diversion of spending and other factors in the interests of a
conservative approach. Floorspace demand should therefore continue to increase on the back of ‘real’
spending growth due to growth in in-store fulfilment and distribution.

As shown in Table 7.4, it is expected that there would be demand for almost 26,600 sq.m of additional
retail floorspace generated by trade area residents between 2014 and 2021 based on the level of
population growth forecast, and this is over and above the current deficiency. Some of this would
naturally accrue to centres and stores outside the trade area. With further growth in the trade area
population and steady growth in the supportable floorspace per capita, it is expected that by 2031, there
would be demand for an additional 50,700 sq.m of retail floorspace over the current requirement. Again,
this doesn’t allow for the substantial gap that currently exists.


Future Retail Floorspace Requirements
NOOSA CIVIC MAIN TRADE AREA                                                                                                 TABLE 7.4
                                                                       2014       2016          2021            2026           2031
Population Total Trade Area                                          81,000     83,700        89,900          92,500         95,600
Retail Floorspace Per Capita (sq.m) 1                                    2.2        2.2            2.3            2.3            2.4
Total Retail Floorspace Demand                                      178,200    186,000       204,800        216,100        228,900
Increase in Floorspace Demand from 2014                                    -     7,800        26,600          37,900         50,700
                                         2
Total Retail Floorspace Supply                                       94,110     94,110        94,110          94,110         94,110
Retail Floorspace Surplus/(Deficiency)                              (84,090)   (91,890)    (110,690)      (121,990)       (134,790)
1. Derived fro m industry benchmarks and gro wn at 0.5% per annum
2. Supply serving No o sa Civic trade area resident market
So urce: Urbis


The proposed expansion of Noosa Civic is expected to add a further 21,980 sq.m of retail floorspace to
the trade area. Based on the assessment above, in 2021 the proposed expansion of Noosa Civic will only
account for around 20% of the deficiency in retail floorspace within the trade area.

As indicated above, some of the indicative future floorspace demand will be satisfied in locations outside
the trade area, including other centres on the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane. In order to achieve higher
levels of self-containment, however, a broader range of facilities and services will need to be provided
locally. The subject development proposal at Noosa Civic will go some way towards satisfying this need.

7.4.2        METHOD 2 – AVERAGE TRADING LEVEL (ATL) APPROACH
As shown earlier in Table 5.8 over the next 15 to 20 years, total retail spending by Noosa Civic trade area
residents is forecast to increase by approximately $623 million (expressed in constant $2014 including
GST) This is driven by both population growth and real growth in expenditure levels.

The industry accepted overall average trading level (ATL), or productivity, of retail facilities, appropriate
for masterplanning purposes, is $5,500 - $6,000 per sq.m. This is an appropriate average given the wide
variations between store types and centre types, and indeed stores of different sizes.

For the purposes of this assessment we have separated retail uses into Food and Non-Food categories,
to take account of the different growth rates applicable to each category.




102      ASSESSMENT OF NEED AND DEMAND
                                                                                                                                          URBIS
                                                                                   NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL